WEDNESDAY JULY 4th #1

WEDNESDAY JULY 4th

Really strange day at Wimbledon yesterday. The Lisicki-Kerber match in particular, Kerber's body language in the third set was incredible, even a break up early, she was "saying" I cannot win this, just come and beat me ! Lisicki led 5-3 and was serving for the match, then threw away and I mean threw away four games in a row against an opponent who was not capable at that stage, of winning them, I could call it frustrating, but that would be the understatement of the year. Kerber is not a player I could EVER back at short odds ( not just because of yesterday, I am also talking about what happened in the final at Eastbourne), her quotes yesterday were a joke and win or lose, you have to be happy with bets like that.

Serena's serve was incredible again yesterday and she made almost no unforced errors, but still Kvitova could have taken it into a decider and then who knows, I wonder what is going to happen if her serve is just a little off tomorrow or Sunday, if you just hang in with this version of Serena ( like Shevdova and Zheng did), she will give you a chance.  More of that tomorrow.

Chicago Fire took a share of the spoils against Houston and it is the MLS I again want to focus on today, but will cover that in a follow up email at around 13.00 UK today .

For now, a few words about the Watford situation and the Roger Federer - Mikhail Youzhny match which opens the action on Centre Court today. The two have met twelve times previously and FedEx has won them all ! Only one meeting came here at Wimbledon, last year, Roger took it in four sets after the Russian won the first in a tie break and a very similar outcome wouldn't surprise me today. Youzhny has had a good, solid career banking almost $9m, but has probably never really fulfilled his enormous potential. I know that Federer for one, despite their h2h record considers him a hugely gifted player. He is well rounded and has recently earned a PhD in Philosophy, which should give him a good insight into the problems he faces today, he certainly seemed happy in interview yesterday and appeared to be looking forward to the contest. Laughing about the previous meetings.....

Q. Looking ahead, you play a guy you know pretty well in Roger Federer. How would you describe your history against Roger?

MIKHAIL YOUZHNY: First of all, you know, it's good for me what I have one more chance against a great player, one of the best players in the world.
Actually, I cannot say anything more about that right now, because for me, you know, I don't want to talk now how I will play, what happens against Federer if I will play, because I played many times against him. I never beat this guy. So just now I can't talk like about my dreams, what I have to do on court to beat Roger.

When they met in the quarters last year ,Youzhny was brave, with almost 40 net approaches and he had enough break points to have possibly taken this into a decider, almost as many as JWT who beat Federer in the next round.Federer looks far more vunerable this year to be honest and I have to like "over" 32.5 games 1.80 + general quote, it could go over that line in even three close sets and I would not be totally suprised to see this go all the way, or even a shock result. Federer to win 3-2 in sets is 10.0 if you shop around, up to 11.0 for small liquidity on the exhanges and that is a juicy looking quote.

The Pozzo / Watford deal was officially concluded last week and as expected, they have put Gianfranco Zola in charge and sacked previous boss Sean Dyche. Odds have tumbled and they are now a top priced 33-1 and that is only in a place or two and is not going to last long. The 14-1 for promotion has gone too, Hills reducing that to 8-1, although there are still some double digit quotes around, which again, will not last long.

The original, very brief post is reproduced below, what I like about the whole deal is that this is a very "good fit", the Pozzo's are serious football people, with a fantastic and hugely admired scounting system and a blueprint for success.

They have taken tiny Udinese, with a population of barely 100,000 not only into Serie A, but remained there for 17 seasons, challenging for honours and even into the Champions League. They took over Granada in 2009, then in the third tier of Spanish football, immediate and consecutive promotions followed and they secured survival in their first year in La Liga and the club will almost certainly continue to thrive..... Antonio Floro Flores has just joined them from ........ yes, Udinese and the club look much stronger heading into the new season !

Watford are a similar club to those two and I do not doubt that the Pozzo's will also make this a success. They will almost certainly ship a lot of talent in on loan from Udinese and it makes complete sense for the Hornets to go with an Italian coach and staff.

Hopefully, you are all on at those big quotes.

Good Luck.

Written June 19th

The  Board of Directors, acting on behalf of Watford Football Club, is pleased to confirm that agreement has been reached in principle for the transfer of ownership to the Pozzo family.

Representatives from the family have been in discussions with Watford Football Club and both parties have agreed initial terms.

This is on the official Watford site and has been in the offering for some time, the Pozzo family own Udinese and Granada, they got the Spanish club into the top flight in double quick time and are very shrewd, they sent a lot of promising Udinese players to Spain for long term loans and can be expected to do something similar for the Hornets.

Watford finished 11th last year, 11 points off the playoffs and seem sure to go better, with such backing.

They are circa 50-1 to win the Championship and there is even some 66-1 in a place, 12-1 and 14-1 for promotion, none of which is likely to last long, especially if they start to ship players in and those odds are probably too big in any case, so I suggest you take a little.

Good Luck.