I
was plased with the J-League previews yesterday, three goals in the
Kashima game with Nagoya scoring two, Hiroshima won and Yokohama-Cerezo
drew. Elsewhere, the Ladies final went "over" and in the MLS , Real Salt
Lake landed the handicap bet and also scored those three goals and all
in all it was a very good day.
Today,
I have two strong bets in the MLS games ( although no max bet) and a
huge priced selection for the final round of the USPGA event, still
waiting for all of those golf odds to come out, so will include that in
the follow up email at midday.
That doesn't leave much for this email, just the Wimbledon final between Roger
Federer and Andy Murray.
Murray
leads the h2h 9-7 with every single meeeting being on hardcourts,
either indoor or out, surprisingly, six of the last seven have been won
in straight sets. In the last ten, which go back over four years, Murray
has served more aces in eight, they tied once and Federer served more,
just one more, in that straight sets Aussie final win in 2010. Given
those stats and the fact that even the casual tennis observer will have
noticed a huge improvement in the British player's serve over the last
12 months and he looks a decent quote @ around 1.80 + to serve the most
aces, very little liquidity at present but there is up to 1.86 for tiny
money on the exchanges and a couple of companies also offer Murray with a
handicap start in this market, which even at low odds, cannot be right.
If you watched Federer
destroying Youzhny in the quarters, you might be amazed to know that he
lost the "ace race " 2-3 in that, despite serving fantastically well, losing only five game and winning 88% of points on his first serve !
This
is time for Murray to step up and if he can come out strong and by that
I do not even mean he has to win the first set, just be competitive, I
think he will put in a big showing. In that Aussie final, Murray stepped
up from his performance in their previous grand slam final two years
earlier and should have taken it into a fourth set, he made errors both
times he held set points in that tie break.
The
Brit's second serve is hugely improved, Federer is no longer as good a
volleyer ( not much practice ?) and Murray will probably try and pull
him into the net, physically Murray is much the stronger now and the
longer this goes the better he will get. I
think Murray will take at least two sets, so like the 2.80 on the
exchanges for him to win outright, as firstly, I think it is too big
anyway and secondly he seems sure to trade a lot lower at some stage,
which will give opportunities to take a profit.
Good Luck.
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