We are now down to the last 16 in both main draws at Wimbledon and the Ladies Singles looks like this ....
SHARAPOVA 3.50- LISICKI 70.0
CLIJSTERS 16.0-KERBER 38.0
RADWANSKA 17.0 - GIORGI 290.0
KIRILENKO 230.0- PENG 300.0
WILLIAMS 4.60- SHEVDOVA 110.0
SCHIAVONE 240.0- KVITOVA 6.40
PASZEK 29.0 - VINCI 250.0
IVANOVIC 90.0- AZARENKA 8.0
Alongside
each player are their top available outright quotes, that is virtually a
100% book, but for our purposes, is just a guide.
We
are on
Azarenka at up to 10.0 and I hope that some of you may have paired that
with a little of the circa 70.0
highlighted about Radwanska ( see below).The draw has opened up nicely
for her and both have a favourite's chance of making the last four.
Masha
still has a very difficult draw, having to face Lisicki and then either
Clijsters or Kerber, just to make the semis, I said she was way too
short at the offset and have seen little to change my mind, of course,
she could win, but that is very different from being even a fair price and her odds from day 1 have been a bit of a joke.
Serena
- Kvitova in the quarters would be something to behold. However,
Serena's general game looks a little off and she was unable to return
some 30 serves of Zheng yesterday, half of which were
not particularly well placed, or even fast enough to get a speeding
ticket ! She is
also too short in the outright markets for me and looks vunerable, but
her serve is awesome and she has been posting big numbers with it, which
will keep her in most matches and she is a fighter.
Yaroslava Shvedova has been "right up there" with her serves too, speed wise on a par with Williams and she has taken great confidence from the eight matches she won at Roland Garros and I suppose that perfect set against Errani last week, although the media attention surrounding that, might not be a positive. It is easy to see plenty of cheap points here, especially if Serena returns like she did on Saturday and I like the "over" 20.5 games @ 2.0 + with Pinnacle ( 1.25 units).
Three Italian women in the last 16, Vinci and Schiavone have been playing here a long time, but neither has ever got past R3 previously, having said that, Vinci is making very few unforced errors ( 8 per match) and Schiavone did not have quite a gruelling French Open as usual. Giorgi is interesting, she won through qualifying and has yet to drop a set in six matches .
I have seen some eyecatching serving stats for Camila Giorgi, we spoke recently about how key the second serve is and she has been winning 64% of points on hers and it is hardly surprising, given that against Petrova in R3, she was bombing them down at an average of 95mph, which is about the fastest I have seen here , at least in relation to her first serve, which is not that much quicker.
Giorgi is very ahtletic and deceptively powerful and if she can hold her nerve today and not let Radwanska dictate matters early, she can be the first woman at these championships to take more than six games off the Polish world number 3. I have seem chinks in Radwanska's much improved service in two of her three matches, second serve was poor against Vesnina for example and whilst I expect the favourite to progress, Giorgi +6 games @ 1.88 ( 1.25 units) Pinnacle is my pick.
Kim Clijsters, who is playing her last few months on tour and retiring after the US Open , has only played Wimbledon twice since 2005, making at least the quarter finals each time. This is the first time in five appearances that Angelique Kerber has made to the second week, previously losing three times in her opening match.
Yaroslava Shvedova has been "right up there" with her serves too, speed wise on a par with Williams and she has taken great confidence from the eight matches she won at Roland Garros and I suppose that perfect set against Errani last week, although the media attention surrounding that, might not be a positive. It is easy to see plenty of cheap points here, especially if Serena returns like she did on Saturday and I like the "over" 20.5 games @ 2.0 + with Pinnacle ( 1.25 units).
Three Italian women in the last 16, Vinci and Schiavone have been playing here a long time, but neither has ever got past R3 previously, having said that, Vinci is making very few unforced errors ( 8 per match) and Schiavone did not have quite a gruelling French Open as usual. Giorgi is interesting, she won through qualifying and has yet to drop a set in six matches .
I have seen some eyecatching serving stats for Camila Giorgi, we spoke recently about how key the second serve is and she has been winning 64% of points on hers and it is hardly surprising, given that against Petrova in R3, she was bombing them down at an average of 95mph, which is about the fastest I have seen here , at least in relation to her first serve, which is not that much quicker.
Giorgi is very ahtletic and deceptively powerful and if she can hold her nerve today and not let Radwanska dictate matters early, she can be the first woman at these championships to take more than six games off the Polish world number 3. I have seem chinks in Radwanska's much improved service in two of her three matches, second serve was poor against Vesnina for example and whilst I expect the favourite to progress, Giorgi +6 games @ 1.88 ( 1.25 units) Pinnacle is my pick.
Kim Clijsters, who is playing her last few months on tour and retiring after the US Open , has only played Wimbledon twice since 2005, making at least the quarter finals each time. This is the first time in five appearances that Angelique Kerber has made to the second week, previously losing three times in her opening match.
Shuai Peng has made it to week 2 for the second year running, but has had a favourable draw both years.
Sabine Lisicki had that big run to the semis last year where she lost to Masha, she had won Birmingham the week before and played five matches in the French Open immediately before that, she also made the doubles final here, so I am not sure how much was left in the tank, by the time she faced off against Sharapova. She might be thankful for losing at Birmingham early this year and in the first round at Roland Garros.
Last year the German, "only" took seven games, but hit more winners and made fewer unforced errors than her opponent. Masha made the most of everything which came her way and a few narrow margins turned the match her way. The pair met again at the Australian Open and we saw a much closer match with Lisicki taking the first set. I really do not think that there is a huge amount between these two on grass. Sabine has grown to love the tournament and grass despite having an allergy and says she respects Sharapova but does not fear her at all , stating she "loves big matches" and finds the encounters with the Russian "exciting" and motivating".
Pironkova could have beaten Sharapova in two sets and wasted five set points in the opening set, Lisicki is fully capable of winning this match and looks a huge price to take a set @ 2.82 with Pinnacle ( 0.75units )and I am also keen on her getting a 5.5 game handicap start @ 1.85+ ( 1.25 units). We might see a complaint from Lisicki about "grunting" today, she did so under the "hindrance rule" against Bojana Jovanovski in R2 and that might further unsettle Sharapova if the umpire takes action.
Good Luck.
Sabine Lisicki had that big run to the semis last year where she lost to Masha, she had won Birmingham the week before and played five matches in the French Open immediately before that, she also made the doubles final here, so I am not sure how much was left in the tank, by the time she faced off against Sharapova. She might be thankful for losing at Birmingham early this year and in the first round at Roland Garros.
Last year the German, "only" took seven games, but hit more winners and made fewer unforced errors than her opponent. Masha made the most of everything which came her way and a few narrow margins turned the match her way. The pair met again at the Australian Open and we saw a much closer match with Lisicki taking the first set. I really do not think that there is a huge amount between these two on grass. Sabine has grown to love the tournament and grass despite having an allergy and says she respects Sharapova but does not fear her at all , stating she "loves big matches" and finds the encounters with the Russian "exciting" and motivating".
Pironkova could have beaten Sharapova in two sets and wasted five set points in the opening set, Lisicki is fully capable of winning this match and looks a huge price to take a set @ 2.82 with Pinnacle ( 0.75units )and I am also keen on her getting a 5.5 game handicap start @ 1.85+ ( 1.25 units). We might see a complaint from Lisicki about "grunting" today, she did so under the "hindrance rule" against Bojana Jovanovski in R2 and that might further unsettle Sharapova if the umpire takes action.
Good Luck.
WIMBLEDON : LADIES SINGLES OUTRIGHT
I am going to ease myself into the Championships and just start with one outright bet.
The draw was made Friday and has set up a really interesting Ladies Singles. French Open champion Maria Sharapova has plenty of potential banana skins in her section, she will probably need to beat Pironkova and Lisicki just to make the quarter final and in the other half of "section 1, are Kerber, Makarova, Clijsters, Jankovic and Zvonareva. Masha was very focused on getting that Roland Garros win on her CV, the only "missing" grand slam and I doubt she is as well prepared for grass as in previous years, anyway, given that and the draw, she is WAAY too short in the betting for my liking.
Section 2 contains a lot of evenly matched players and about as dangerous a floater as you could have in five time champion Venus Williams, I did have a feeling that we might see a big run from Agnieszka Radwanska this year, she is a two time quarter finalist and was also a Junior Champion at Wimbledon and enters these championships with her highest ever world ranking of #3. She is a working man's price of 65.0-70.0 on the exchanges and could go deep but will have to hit the ground running with Venus a potential Round 2 opponent and Hantuchova and newly crowned Unicef Open champion Nadia Petrova also in waiting.
Serena Williams will probably be happy with her place at the top of Section 3 and she could play herself into form, she has a potential semi final with last year's winner Petra Kvitova and although both Williams sisters are a complete law unto themselves and I would never entirely write either of them off, they are staring to look their age ( sorry girls!) in tennis terms, Venus will be 33 next month, Serena 31 shortly after and even if that were not the case, the focus this year for both, appears to be the Olympics, which is all either has really spoken off all season, anyway, like Masha, she is too short for my taste. Kvitova is a fair price IMO at circa 7.0 and if she finds anything close to the level she played at last year, she will go close, but the pressure of being defending champion will be huge and only the Williams sisters have managed to repeat since 1996. Of course, with nine titles between them, they have not given anyone else much of a chance !
The bottom section contains another very dangerous floater in Eastbourne champion Tamira Paszek, she is still only 21, made the Junior final her as a 15yo and the quarters last year, also in the upper half of this section is Marion Bartoli and this pair can give anyone huge problems on this surface. However, at the very bottom of the draw, things look quite good for Australian Open champion Victoria Azarenka and she should be able to ease her way into the second week. She has reached the last eight in two of the last three years, losing to the eventual champion both times, Serena in 09 and Kvitova last year. Actually she has lost to the Czech player in each of the last two years, but took the champion, who was in imperious form, to three sets and arrives here this time with the additional confidence of not only being a grand slam winner, but having thrashed Sharapova 3&0 in that final.
Azarenka is 38-5 for the year, but 26-1 on fast courts, Roland Garros was a disappointment to her, but I feel that much of that is down to the fact that now she expects to win, or go very deep in all the majors. She took time out afterwards and went home to Minsk, I would prefer that she had at least played some grass court tennis, but the Belarus superstar knows her body well and has tended to return fresher and ready to do herself justice from these self enforced breaks. She is still prone to losing it sometimes, but these concerns are offset by her outright odds of 9.0 +, which are almost double what I made her , my price being around 5.0 .
She added Amelie Mauresmo to her team as a consultant in April, this was on a week to week basis and whilst I am not certain that they will be in London together, it would seem odd in the extreme to add a Wimbledon champion to your camp through Roland Garros and then let the arrangement drop for the All England Championships. However, even if that was the case, I feel sure that the astute Mauresmo would already have passed on some useful information, if the pair are together, it would be a huge plus, extra bonus would be that Mauresmo is a very calmimg influence too.
Azarenka took Kvitova close last year, despite making a very sluggish start to their semi and in the quarters she gace Paszek a bit of a thumping, she had eight break points against the huge serving champion, which she didn't make the most of and played to a high level right through her six matches, averaging just eight unforced errors per start, I expect her to go well and love the price, she can be vunerable early, but the draw has been kinder to her than most and we have to bet. 1.25 units Victoria Azarenka outright 9.0 +... there is some 9.8 on the exchanges and 10.0 in a place.
I am going to ease myself into the Championships and just start with one outright bet.
The draw was made Friday and has set up a really interesting Ladies Singles. French Open champion Maria Sharapova has plenty of potential banana skins in her section, she will probably need to beat Pironkova and Lisicki just to make the quarter final and in the other half of "section 1, are Kerber, Makarova, Clijsters, Jankovic and Zvonareva. Masha was very focused on getting that Roland Garros win on her CV, the only "missing" grand slam and I doubt she is as well prepared for grass as in previous years, anyway, given that and the draw, she is WAAY too short in the betting for my liking.
Section 2 contains a lot of evenly matched players and about as dangerous a floater as you could have in five time champion Venus Williams, I did have a feeling that we might see a big run from Agnieszka Radwanska this year, she is a two time quarter finalist and was also a Junior Champion at Wimbledon and enters these championships with her highest ever world ranking of #3. She is a working man's price of 65.0-70.0 on the exchanges and could go deep but will have to hit the ground running with Venus a potential Round 2 opponent and Hantuchova and newly crowned Unicef Open champion Nadia Petrova also in waiting.
Serena Williams will probably be happy with her place at the top of Section 3 and she could play herself into form, she has a potential semi final with last year's winner Petra Kvitova and although both Williams sisters are a complete law unto themselves and I would never entirely write either of them off, they are staring to look their age ( sorry girls!) in tennis terms, Venus will be 33 next month, Serena 31 shortly after and even if that were not the case, the focus this year for both, appears to be the Olympics, which is all either has really spoken off all season, anyway, like Masha, she is too short for my taste. Kvitova is a fair price IMO at circa 7.0 and if she finds anything close to the level she played at last year, she will go close, but the pressure of being defending champion will be huge and only the Williams sisters have managed to repeat since 1996. Of course, with nine titles between them, they have not given anyone else much of a chance !
The bottom section contains another very dangerous floater in Eastbourne champion Tamira Paszek, she is still only 21, made the Junior final her as a 15yo and the quarters last year, also in the upper half of this section is Marion Bartoli and this pair can give anyone huge problems on this surface. However, at the very bottom of the draw, things look quite good for Australian Open champion Victoria Azarenka and she should be able to ease her way into the second week. She has reached the last eight in two of the last three years, losing to the eventual champion both times, Serena in 09 and Kvitova last year. Actually she has lost to the Czech player in each of the last two years, but took the champion, who was in imperious form, to three sets and arrives here this time with the additional confidence of not only being a grand slam winner, but having thrashed Sharapova 3&0 in that final.
Azarenka is 38-5 for the year, but 26-1 on fast courts, Roland Garros was a disappointment to her, but I feel that much of that is down to the fact that now she expects to win, or go very deep in all the majors. She took time out afterwards and went home to Minsk, I would prefer that she had at least played some grass court tennis, but the Belarus superstar knows her body well and has tended to return fresher and ready to do herself justice from these self enforced breaks. She is still prone to losing it sometimes, but these concerns are offset by her outright odds of 9.0 +, which are almost double what I made her , my price being around 5.0 .
She added Amelie Mauresmo to her team as a consultant in April, this was on a week to week basis and whilst I am not certain that they will be in London together, it would seem odd in the extreme to add a Wimbledon champion to your camp through Roland Garros and then let the arrangement drop for the All England Championships. However, even if that was the case, I feel sure that the astute Mauresmo would already have passed on some useful information, if the pair are together, it would be a huge plus, extra bonus would be that Mauresmo is a very calmimg influence too.
Azarenka took Kvitova close last year, despite making a very sluggish start to their semi and in the quarters she gace Paszek a bit of a thumping, she had eight break points against the huge serving champion, which she didn't make the most of and played to a high level right through her six matches, averaging just eight unforced errors per start, I expect her to go well and love the price, she can be vunerable early, but the draw has been kinder to her than most and we have to bet. 1.25 units Victoria Azarenka outright 9.0 +... there is some 9.8 on the exchanges and 10.0 in a place.
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