Sample newsletter.......... a typical summer weekend's clubgowi notes .....

Sunday July 27th

Brentford beat Ligue 1 team Nice 3-2 yesterday and looked very impressive once again, showing a  lot of pace and attacking intent, especially in a first half when all the goals came, it was a very hot,sticky afternoon so naturally the tempo slowed a little after that. I touched upon the high fitness levels of the squad in the preview on Friday and forget to mention that they did a LOT of training in very humid conditions in Florida over the summer and many players feel they are their fittest ever and way above last seasons level and they were the best conditioned squad by some way in League 1 then.

I also understand that York City impressed in a midweek loss to EPL side Hull City, with Tigers boss Steve Bruce saying the Minstermen were "fiercely competitive and put up a tough fight, Nigel Worthington has done a great job here." Midfielder Tom Huddlestone echoed those comments "they were very up for it, and in our faces from start to finish."

Three newsletters today, a few pre match J-League notes here, then there will be as detailed half time update as I can manage of the later kick offs within 7-8 minutes of the first half ending.....use them if you wish and have time. There will be a standard follow up newsletter with Brazilian and MLS football and PGA Tour golf at 13.00 UK time.

J-League:

Last midweek we took a look at how the pre World Cup games had played out in terms of goals.....
 

After today's two catch up games, they will have played 14 rounds in J-League, which gives us a good sample of matches.

So far this season we have seen a big decrease in goals, down from 2.90 at this stage last season, to 2.40 this time round, a full 0.5 goal per game fewer , which is massive. Trend has been upward over the last dozen years and I prefer to believe that this is just a blip and that we will see goals increase, maybe significantly, over the next 20 rounds and maybe especially during the coming weeks.

Other numbers have remained fairy constant, it is not like we have seen a big increase in the number of drawn matches,infact, there have been fewer, they are currently at 22.58% and were 22.22% for the whole of last season and 26.98 % at this stage, which further implies that games have been just as open, but the goals have simply not come yet.

Last year I wrote a mid season stats update, the gist of which was ......."a huge amount of the J-League action is taking place after the break in any case, with 64% of all goals being scored in the second half and a lot of matches being turned on their heads, with 31% of teams who are ahead at half time, not winning the match and being as likely to lose, as to draw."

We did really well by betting in games which were level at half time and where we had firm opinion about how the second period was likely to play out, benefits of this approach were that we were avoiding teams which had started badly, we were invariable getting much better odds and were also betting in a period when goals were far more likely. This season, 56 matches have been level at HT (45.16%) and of those, just shy of 70% have produced a positive (non draw after 90 minutes) result and this looks a good policy for us again .

Having said that, it might take a game of two for teams to get back into the swing of things, but it is definitely something we can watch and that is made so much easier, at least for those of us based in Europe, by the matches today and Saturday and for the forseeable future apparently. all scheduled for mid/ late morning.

The problem this week is that all teams are likely to need a competitive game, maybe two, to get back into the swing of things, but there is a full round at the weekend and again next Wednesday, so it is not going to take too long !

Last week's 11 games produced 26 goals, so seasonal totals were pretty much unchanged, but we have had the match for teams to blow away the cob-webs now and it is worth noting that the four teams that played in midweek, all scored at least twice at the weekend. Also that the quick turnaround normally means goals in J-League, something we touched upon earlier in the season, although that round was the exception which proved the rule, anyway, we should see more goals from here on in and especially after the half time break.

The midweek games, saw an average of 3.0 per game, but they were an odd mix as five actually finished "under", the numbers have started to edge up , but we have no quite seen the trends we are looking for yet from the league as a whole.

FC Tokyo- Vegalta Sendai

It would not be J-League without a look at FC Tokyo and I strongly feel it is time for them to put in another commanding home performance. In midweek I wrote ....

We touched upon Tokyo's 1-1 home draw with Kashima Antlers ...

The last six h2h meetings have produced 29 goals with all having at least four goals, both teams have scored in the last eight games in Tokyo and Antlers have scored two or more here in 7 of 9 visits.

We discussed FCT a lot before the break when they were a mixture of unplayable and unwatchable ! It is a little pointless reproducing those notes, as like FCT and wildly optimistic coach Massimo Ficcadenti, whom I must admit to having a soft spot for, they are hugely unpredictable. However, I am sure they will get it right and they will be buoyed by scoring 8 goals in the Emperors Cup last weekend, it was little more than target practice and form in those matches means little, but it can only be positive. The hosts will be all out for the three points and Antlers really cannot play any other way, with the visitors already having scored a J-League high 16 road goals and posted five away wins.
 

Only two goals in that game, which was disappointing, but there were a LOT of chances after the hosts came out of their shell. they started perhaps too defensively with the "tinkerman" coach Massimo Ficcadenti clearly working on even more formations in training and claiming that his team is ready to "mature further". 

Personally I think he should be looking for a little more stability and consistency of results , but this is clearly a team with a lot of potential and they could go on a big run, sometime soon. Antlers coach Toninho Cerezo said that he felt it was a great game and praised the preparation FCT had done, with the hosts 4-3-3 formation perfectly set up to nullify the threat from his team, which meant a major tactical change and re think for the visitors after the break.

FCT have served us OK on the road with the draw no ball option and this is a venue where they tend to do well, scoring on their last 7 visits , including winning the last two with a 5-0 goal difference and I like their chances of a hat-trick.

They won that 1-0 , scoring early via Muto and defending pretty much for the last hour , with a disciplined high defensive line, they were determined to collect the three points after they felt they had given two away last weekend and it showed, with a very committed performance. They did have chances to score on the break to seal the game and missed one golden opportunity, Mr Ficcadenti was his usual self afterwards and said apart from the failure to take the second goal " I felt our performance tonight was excellent, flawless in fact."

FCT have dominated this series and are 6-1-0 in the last seven h2h meetings in the capital, with five cleans sheets and only conceded in two very big wins ( 4-1, 6-2), they will be without striker Edu today, who is suspended after his latest yellow card in midweek, but they are  creating plenty of chances from their midfield and it is not an overriding concern for me, Vegalta look vulnerable defensively right now, they were unable to win despite leading three times in midweek when they were largely gifted all three goals by slipshod defending and were themselves very slow to the second ball and to close players down. Coach Ficcadenti watches a lot of the opposition and is sure to have picked up on this.

1.25 units FC Tokyo -0.5 ball 1.97 asian line/Sportmarket.

Vissel Kobe -Gamba Osaka

I picked up on Gamba's improvement a couple of weeks ago, but did not pull the trigger until last week ............

Gamba were the team I spoke about on Saturday when I said.....By the way, Ficcadenti (FCT coach) sees the world through rose tinted glasses and always focuses on the positives and in post match interview and I have read all of them this season, I have only heard him be fulsome in praise of another opponent once and I have seen similar high praise for the same team from one other rival coach which is very unusual. They have underperformed so far, but I have noticed an upturn in fortune through the cup games and I am certain we can do well with them in the coming weeks, hopefully we can use this at half time today, but in case we cannot, I will hold off naming them as long as possible.
 

Needless to say they beat Ventforet Kofu 2-0 with both goals coming early, what Ficcadenti had actually said about Gamba after his team had beaten them 3-0 was: "They are a very strong team whose current points total doesn't match their quality, they have a lot of technically skilled players, in particular the two central midfielders are very good." They have quality across the middle of the park, not least with evergreen Yasuhito Endo who has returned from the World Cup eager to put a disappointing time there behind him and all the national team players have returned to action with a positive attitude and the huge work ethic we expect from them. Anyway, an Endo-less Gamba avenged that loss to Tokyo 3-1 in the cup a week later and are a team we need to keep an eye on now. They lose Shu Kurata today,who scored a very good goal at the weekend, but on the plus side, were able to largely go through the motions for the last hour in that game and save energy for today. They are very motivated to follow up and take that momentum into the derby game with Vissel Kobe on Sunday.

Striker Takashi Usami is in exceptional form right now and you know I loves me a front man in form and new Brazilian signing Patric is hungrily sitting on the bench waiting for his opportunity and suddenly this looks a team we can rely upon for goals.

SSP played OK for 45 minutes at the weekend, but their confidence is very brittle right now and when they do not score, or they concede, they all too quickly slip into bad habits, which is what happened in the 2-0 defeat to Kawasaki Frontale, their coach explained this better than I could ...

"The game changed the moment we lost the ball in midfield and they countered. You could sense in the stadium that our players lost confidence in that moment, and Kawasaki had a good chance on goal. Following that we lost our way a little bit for 15 minutes and we took two goals in this period. Partly because we got stretched, we didn’t put enough pressure on the ball. Kawasaki found openings and after that it’s a difficult game. At the end we had as many chances as they, and at the end we didn’t finish the chances, they finished theirs and we lost the game to a good team. Hopefully we can recover and try to get back to our way on Wednesday and next week at home to Reysol.

The moment there is a mistake or an opponent has a chance, the game is so influenced like today. [Players] they lose confidence and the back line goes backwards. We saw Kota Sugiyama go back, and it forced our midfielders to come back, and we stopped putting pressure on the ball in high positions, and that really was the turnaround. That very key moment after Honda lost the ball and Kawasaki countered, you could see the game change."

This is traditionally a high scoring fixture, last ten meetings have averaged 3.7 goals and I think this will follow suit, but want to side with Gamba.

They won that 4-0 , going with an ultra attacking line up , Patric (see above) scored and right now they look an unstoppable force with goals coming from everywhere, They have posted two wins and a draw , scoring eight goals on their last three top flight visits to Kobe and have already beaten the hosts in a cup game this season.Big loss for Kobe is right back Ryo Okui who is suspended, even more so against the marauding offensive line of Gamba, hosts have lost just one in eight (four wins) when he plays, just two wins in eight starts without him,  he only missed two games last season (40 starts) and Gamba will be surely targeting that flank.

1.5 units Gamba Osaka -0.25 ball 2.20 asian line/Sportmarket.

By the way, I have another team we need to watch and that is Albirex Niigata who have also been playing MUCH better than recent results suggest (outplayed Urawa and FCT for significant periods) and we just need their period of bad luck to end, they could win today at Kawasaki Frontale and the hosts have played three games since the re-start as opposed to Albirex's two, that gave Frontale an edge at first, but today, with this a fourth start inside 12 days, I am not quite so sure. However, you know how things are when they are not going your way, you need something to break in your favour and I think personally, I would like to see them snatch a point or better before getting too involved. Having said that, they are my idea of today's potential "upset" at circa 4.0.

Good Luck.

There are three selections in the follow up newsletter, two football and one small golf bet, this is scheduled for 13.00 UK time, it is almost finished, but I want to follow as much of the second half J-League action as possible, so it might be 15 minutes late, but no more.


Cerezo Osaka -Sagan Tosu

Cerezo have not won any of the eight (five home) matches in which they have gone in level at the break.

Sagan have won 2/3 when level at HT.

Visitors don't have a great record here, but both recent wins , which includes their last visit, have come via a single second half goal.

Kawasaki Frontale -Albirex Niigata

This is the match we touched upon in the first email today. Albirex have taken points from 3/4 road games in which they have gone in at half time all square.

However, Frontale are the best second half team in J-League this season , already posting 10 wins , they are also 4-0-0 when level at HT.

Nagoya Grampus -Yokohama F.Marinos

Nagoya have conceded a J-League high 13 home goals after the break and are 1-2-5 here in the second half.

Marinos have scored four goals in the second period in their last two road games, taking four points from losing positions. They also scored two here after the break last year.

Marinos are 2/2 when leading on the road and again, scored two in the last of those to record a 3-0 win.

Omiya Ardija -Tokushima Vortis

Vortis are 0-0-6 on the road when behind, but have taken 4 points from the two games in which they have gone in all square.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima -Ventforet Kofu

No second half draws for the hosts in Hiroshima, 4 wins and 4 defeats.

Red card for Ventforet, which immediately makes this a no bet game for me.

Vissel Kobe -Gamba Osaka

Gamba have drawn 7/8 second halves on the road.

Options : Marinos @-0.25, Vortis +0.5, Sagan level ball

I have played very small on both Yokohama -0.25  and Sagan level ball. both at circa 2.20 , but not really bet enough to make them "official" bets.

Good Luck.

Next newsletter will be sent at 10.00 UK time on Monday, when I will update the midweek schedule.

Brazil Serie A: Sport Club  Recife - Atletico Mineiro

Weather in Recife will be draining, not too hot, but incredibly humid. Atletico are the stronger team for mem despite the league table saying differently, it does lie sometimes and they have also ended games far more strongly, with an average of 1.8 points per game through the second half and scoring eight goals , a total only beaten by Cruzeiro, in the last 30 minutes of games, which hints at greater fitness levels, which might serve them well this evening.

Both played in midweek in cup games, Atletico won the Recopa Sudamericana, Recife played in the Copa do Brasil ,but both teams rotated starting elevens from the previous league encounters to about the same degree.

The visitors have been scoring a lot of goals, 14 in their last six road starts in all competitions and they have travelled with a very attacking line up and clearly look to be coming for the win and I expect them to be targeting a top 3-4 push from now on in. Hosts are hard hit by injury and suspension right back Patric and defensive midfielder Rithely are banned and have only missed one game between them so far this season, they are very short of options in the holding role and this looks good for the away side who have won on their last three visits scoring a whooping nine goals.

1.5 units Atletico Mineiro -0.25 ball 2.25 asian line/Sportmarket. ...........I have seen up to 2.80 for the visitors to score twice which is a wonderful price if anyone can bet that or similar.

Atletico Mineiro: Victor, Giovanni, Emerson Conceição, Alex Silva, Marcos Rocha, Pedro Botelho,Réver, Jemerson, Leonardo Silva,  Pierre, Leandro Donizete, Josué,  Dátolo, Maicosuel,  Guilhereme, Luan, Jô, André, Diego Tardelli.

MLS: Montreal Impact- Portland Timbers

I think the change in surroundings will suit Timbers well, they have been stuck on the West Coast for more than a month and as the old saying goes, a change is as good as a rest, but they are probably better rested too, as Impact have played twice, difficult road trips to Columbus and Salt Lake, some 9,000 km of travel and some 40 attempts on goal acroos the two games. Defensively Montreal look very suspect, they have lost four in a row and are making a lot of errors and even coach Frank Klopas has said "-I am worried about the team, it seems that everything that can go wrong, actually goes wrong. "We've got nothing left to do but keep working hard and hope for the best." Which hardly inspires confidence. Liam Ridgewell whom we discussed earlier in the season has now finally made his long awaited debut and impressed, but will need time to help turn this backline around, but they will improve some time soon.

Timbers are now close to full strength and have nine long days to rest, prepare and bask in their win over Rapids last time out, which we previewed and those notes can be viewed below the "good luck" sign off.

1.5 units Portland Timbers level ball 2.0 asian line/Sportmarket.


PGA Tour: RBC Canadian Open

Leaderboard

I do not want to spend too long on this, Jim Furyk is three clear of Tim Clark who in turn is two clear of Kyle Stanley, three ahead of the field.

Furyk is a very classy (not his swing) golfer, but one who has developed a nasty habit of struggling to finish of tournaments, he is a 16 time winner, but has not had a victory in four years and that has obviously got inside his head.

Stanley likes this tournamnet, but he has one top 25 finish in 25 previous starts this season and has not been in contention for too long, he is not for me.

Tim Clark is a favourite (of sorts) of mine and he looks due for another win, I couldn't find my old notes on him (apologies), but there are out there somewhere !

I expected an active without Furyk market, but a weather warning has meant bringing tee times forwards, so think companies removed it, but now it looks like things are further delayed and some bookmakers are starting to put lines back up.

If you can find it, I would suggest 1.5 units Tim Clark without Jim Furyk at circa 2.25, my own odds were sub 2.0, alternatively he can be backed each way at circa 5.50 1/3 oods two places 1.2, which ensures a small profit if he is top two, so 0.75 units each way (1.5 units staked). I think he might win this !

Good Luck.

MLS: Portland Timbers- Colorado Rapids  (witten July 18th)

Timbers owe us after their 1-0 home defeat to Sporting KC at the end of last month when I wrote .....

These two met in Kansas just three days ago in the US Open Cup with Portland running out emphatic 3-1 winners, taking a three goal lead before Sporting scored a late consolation.

SKC did enjoy a lot of early pressure in midweek and certainly appeared to be giving the match their full attention, with 11 of the 14 who played some part in the last MLS outing, a 2-0 win in Houston against Dynamo, taking part and two others from that game, on the bench.

Timbers used greater rotation, left several starters back on the West Coast and used key players sparingly and to come away with the win and three goals, says plenty about their offensive potential right now. They have scored 25 goals in their last ten starts in all competitions and three in six of those. there has been great improvement in the defensive side of things, despite having conceded 15 goals over the same sequence of games, four came in a seven goal shootout with rivals Vancouver Whitecaps and in a match where Timbers were out on their feet, having played coast to coast games in the week leading up to the "derby" fixture, so I am prepared to forgive them that one. We discussed the first of those, against Red Bulls in New York, when I wrote........

They (NYRB) have lost Tim Cahill and Roy Miller to the World Cup, but their biggest concern is starting games a little flat/lethargic, they need to start playing the first half as they have been the second and not to be chasing games. There is no excuse for them not to start this on the front foot, Portland had to play a day later and then travel coast to coast, the visitors played an hour with ten men in that game and conceded three goals to what had previously been a toothless Columbus Crew team ( see the Chicago preview in the earlier newsletter). They are without suspended Alvas Powell and that is a major concern if Michael Harrington doesn't make it. Both teams do/could have major issues at full back and look vulnerable defensively anyway at present, this finished 3-2 the last time Portland visited and the only two h2h meetings on the West coast both ended 3-3 and something similar would not surprise.

They actually won that 2-1 and the loss to Whitecaps aside, are 5-1-0 since. They have been looking to further strengthen that already improving backline and added hugely experienced defender Liam Ridgewell from West Bromwich Albion, he can play in central defence or at full back and is a big signing. Ridgewell made 33 EPL starts for WBA last season and turned down other English top flight offers to play in Portland and this has to be viewed as a big signing and major upgrade for the ambitious Timbers. He will not be able to play for a couple of weeks, but will have an influence on the training ground and all the other defenders are going to have to up their game. Timbers coach Caleb Porter has the option to bring six players he left behind in midweek back into the starting line up and also two others who travelled but were not used, this gives them huge options and alternatives which SKC do not really have right now.

They have since been very competitive in three road matches against LA Galaxy and Seattle Sounders (twice) and will welcome returning home and facing a "lesser" opponent and one who is short of options today with Vicente Sanchez , Nick LaBrocca and Shane O’Neill all suspended. Sanchez has scored six goals in his seven appearances this season and the other pair have only missed three games between them this campaign, all three played in the previous league meeting. O'Neill is very key, their road record when he doesn't play is poor, five defeats in six starts and 12 goals conceded in that sequence, including a 3-0 loss in Portland last year. Home win.

1.5 units Portland Timbers -0.5 ball 2.0 general quote....there is some 2.05-2.10 in places.

Sample newsletter

Wednesday April 2nd

There is a follow up newsletter @ 11.00 UK time today.

AFC Champions League:

Shandong Luneng- Pohang Steelers

Yesterday Ulsan lost 3-1 at Guizhou Renhe and afterwards the Korean coach blamed the distance travel and " unforgiving domestic schedule" upon the defeat, he claimed his players were very tired and had no energy left.

Steelers make a much shorter journey from Pohang, but also have two important K-League fixtures over the next seven days and come into this having played on Saturday (Shandong had their fixture moved to Friday) and the Korean clubs have been given little help in terms of scheduling from their federation.

The hosts are missing a few players today, which we will return to shortly, but are a step up in terms of both ability and ambition from Guizhou, something we touched upon on Matchday 2, when ahead of their trip to play Cerezo Osaka I wrote ...,,
Chinese clubs are looking to replicate the success of Evergrande and Shandong were the closest  domestic challenger to Guangzhou last season , some way adrift, but also 8 points clear of Beijing Guoan who finished in third. Guoan qualified from the group stage last season, taking four points from the J-league champions in the process.

Shandong look stronger and in Vagner Love, Walter Montillo and Aloisio, have South American offensive quality most of you will be familiar with and some very decent domestic players with six in the national team at present. The backine has been built around Australian international Ryan McGowan, whom you might know from Hearts in the SPL.

They were devastated by an injury time equaliser in their group opener, which robbed them of all three points, but have now started their league and should be fitter and better able to see out the game today and will be hugely motivated to get a result ahead of a trip to group favourites Pohang Steelers next week.

Their coach Cuca is vastly experienced and won the Copa Libertadores with Atlético Mineiro last year, his experience in international club competitions will be vital and why he was brought into the club. His stock was high, his demands equally so and in many ways this is no less an appointment than Marcello Lippi at Evergrande was.

For the home side the loss of central defender Kota Fujimoto (see below) will be far bigger today than against Vortis. I like the visitors, a "shock" away win would not surprise me and the handicap start looks big.

Hard to believe, just three weeks on, that they were 5.0 + for that game, but they were and won 3-1. They have subsequently drawn 2-2 in Pohang, where they led for 65 minutes in what was a very bad tempered game, which robs both teams of players today.

Shandong will be without the suspended defensive midfielder Jin Jingdao and versatile right sided player Zhao Mingjian, but coach Cuca has played those down and said he has plenty of cover and options. Steelers are without banned right back Kwang-Hoon Shin, they have conceded four goals in the last two Champions League games he has missed. 

“Cuca feels his team upped their game a level in a 1-0.defeat of Liaoning Whowin on Friday, when his team created a lot of chances and played much better than the scoreline indicates. He finished his thoughts ahead of this match by saying :“Physically we are getting better, and our team work has been built up. My team has prepared well over the last few days.” I feel the odds on the home side offer good value 1.5 units Shandong Luneng -0.25 ball 2.05 asian line/Ibramarket.

Buriram United -Cerezo Osaka

Hosts have disappointed in the competition this year after making the last eight in 2013 and failure to claim at least a point today and preferably three, will see them booked for the group wooden spoon.

Launching pad for their progress last year was their form on home soil, where they drew 0-0 with FC Seoul, beat Jianty Sainty 2-0 and drew 1-1 with Vegalta Sendai ( where they led until deep in injury time). This is not an easy place to come, not least because of the weather and it is going to be very hot and humid in Buriram today and a bit of a shock to the system for Cerezo, who left pleasant early season weather in Osaka with temperatures in the high teens, to find it 20 degrees hotter and very humid in Thailand. That would not have been a surprise for them, but what did shock me was that the visiting coach "hoped that Buriram would supply his team with enough water", as most teams would take their own and not rely on opponents to keep them hydrated, maybe it was a Japanese joke !

Cerezo have more quality and we have talked about the addition of Diego Forlan already this season, but I doubt he, or anyone else will enjoy the conditions today and I suspect they would just like to get this over with. They won the reverse fixture 4-0, but it was played in very different circumstances ( cold and wet) and United were on the back foot from the off , after conceding early and two goals came late, after they had "given up".  Hosts get very good support at home, they are comfortable on the ball, have good delivery from wide and dead balls and are much stronger aerially than you might think .A draw would not be a bad result at all for the visitors and under the circumstances, it is hosts plus the draw for me. 1.25 units Buriram United +0.5 ball 2.11 asian line/Ibramarket.

Good Luck.

Wednesday April 2nd #2

Next newsletter will be at the standard time of 10.00 (UK ) on Thursday and will include the weekend schedule .

UEFA Champions League: Paris St Germain- Chelsea

I have already indicated several times already this season how strong I feel this PSG squad are and now their season really starts. They have wrapped up the Ligue 1 title now and reached the last 8 of the Champions League and I guess coming into the campaign, that would have been their two targets, but it is now that the hard work begins and the Qatar Investment Authority can see exactly what, in world terms, their masive investment has brought them. Money has been no concern in building this team, 55 million for Edinson Cavani to play out of position (or not at all) for example and at times, with upwards of 200 m euros worth of talent warming the bench. That was the case in the first leg against Leverkusen, my preview of which is reproduced at the foot of the email. They won that 4-0 and in truth, have rarely got out of second gear this season and I wonder how good they can be.

The worry is that they do not meet the highest level of competition domestically week in week out, but that could also be said about Bayern and Dortmund ( possibly Real, Atletico and Barce too) and few would question their credentials. They have certainly not be been found wanting when they have had to up their level a notch, but (of course) Jose Mourinho has started the mind games and has been questioning the quality of Ligue 1 this week, looking to get inside the head of his counterpart.

However, I feel PSG will have learned a lot from their quarter final with Barcelona last season, where they were unfortunate not to win both legs IMO and they look much stronger this time round. They toyed with Benfica here in the group stage, I underestimated the Portugese side at the time ( see below) and they are now our Europa League selection and on reflection, what PSG did there in the opening 30 minutes was incredible.

Upfront, they have Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Edinson Cavani and Ezequiel Lavezzi, Chelsea have Fernando Torres and Demba Ba ( Samuel Eto'o did not travel) and that alone is a mismatch. Mourinho has spoken all season about his lack of striking options and that is true and not his usual fodder for the media. The Blues are a different animal at Stamford Bridge , but have lost their last two away starts at Aston Villa and Crystal Palace and in this competition drew at Galatasaray ( when they started well , but faded) and lost 1-0 at Basel, where they left they game on the team bus. The visitors are hugely experienced at this level and PSG will want a lead to take to the second leg, not easy, but odds are nice and I simply think the hosts are stronger and meeting Chelsea at the perfect time. 1.5 units Paris St Germain -0.5 ball 2.11 asian line/Ibramarket.

UEFA Champions League: Real Madrid- Borussia Dortmund

These two met at the semi final stage of the competition last season, with Dortmund winning 4-1 in the home leg, losing the return 2-0. I think it is fair to say that Borussia have gone slightly backwards since then, although the Bundesliga table indicates just by three points, however, they are less of a surprise package and forewarned is forearmed.

Real have suffered a dip in form, well , for three halves, losing that huge "derby" with Barcelona and then away to Sevilla, but at least stopped the "rot" with a 5-0 win at the weekend and this season, under Carlo Ancelotti have looked stronger, faster , not as suspect at the back and more flexible in terms of game plan. He was in charge of PSG at this stage last season, but watched the Real-Dortmund games and his reading of them was spot on , which was that for three halves of football Real were on top and very comfortable, in the other, they were destroyed.

Real will not want to travel to Germany without a lead and would prefer it to be two or more and looking at team news, this heavily favours the hosts, with Dortmund decimated by injury and suspension. They are without star striker Robert Lewandowski ( 35-22-14 in Bundesliga and CL) who is suspended, in addition to injuries to  Neven Subotić , Marcel Schmelzer , Jannick Bandowski, Sven Bender , İlkay Gündoğan  and Jakub Błaszczykowski . Łukasz Piszczek has struggled with injury all season and did not feature in the weekend league fixture.

That is a lot of talent to be missing, seven of the players named above played in the semi here last year (another has left) and some inexperienced players are going to have to overperform in a very daunting arena.

Hard to put into words how important Lewandowski is, he has failed to score or assist in three Champions League games this season , all of which they lost and he failed to register in all six Bundesliga matches in which Dortmund have tasted defeat. Last season in the CL, when he scored or assisted they were 6-2-0, when he didn't 1-2-2. However, it is defensively they look severely weaker and I just do not know how they are going to stop the Real offensive wave. I favour a resounding win, by 2 goals +.1.75 units Real Madrid -1.75 ball 2.38 asian line/Ibramarket.

Good Luck.

Tuesday February 18th

 

Champions League@ Bayer Leverkusen-Paris St Germain

 

Long term readers know that I am a fan of PSG and I feel they will go very close in the Champions League this season, unusually, I want to reproduce some notes from the league match with Marseille back in October.....

 

Absolutely no love lost between these two clubs and this is far and away the hottest derby in French football. The hosts would love to win this, three points would take them up above the Parisians and into second place, but they just look a level below both PSG and Monaco and although most teams will come away pointless from Dortmund, the level and manner of the 3-0 midweek defeat and earlier home loss to Arsenal, is a clear indication of where they stand in the bigger European picture. Borussia played at a very high tempo and the furious pace never allowed OM to catch breath, let alone get into the match, that seems sure to have taken a toll, maybe mentally more than physically.

Matters were probably not helped when they saw their hated rival cruise past Benfica, who made a European final last year, racing into a 3-0 lead inside 30 minutes and easing home. Such was their level of dominance that PSG boss Laurent Blanc changed his team around completely with 20 minutes remaining and experimented with 4-4-2, with Edinson Cavani moving into his preferred central position. That is the kind of thing you might do in league game if 3-0 up at home, not in the Champions League against quality opposition and is a sign of how confident PSG are right now, they are clearly starting to fire on all cylinders after a sluggish star to their season.

Almost all their stars are back now, just Thiago Silva remains sidelined and such is the array of talent available to Blanc that he cannot even find a spot in the squad, let alone the bench, for Jérémy Ménez (42-8-10 last season in all comps and who would walk into any other starting eleven in France). In addition to the two Champions League defeats, OM also lost at home to Monaco and they keep coming up just short in all their big games. Zlatan had been in something of a drought ( two goals in nine PSG starts) by his own incredibly high standards before his brace in midweek, you know I love a striker in form and he will be up for this today, he scored three against OM last season, including twice in this fixture and I have seen 7.0-8.5 for him to repeat that feat and score 2+ today, which is tempting. The hosts do get André-Pierre Gignac back today, he has sat out the last three with a toe injury and I suspect, if this had been anyone else, he would not have been named today either, a sign of how big this match is. Left back Jérémy Morel again misses out and OM have lost 8 of the last 13 matches he has missed and we are talking about a team who have lost just 19% of starts (16/84) over the last two and a bit seasons. The visitors are a much stronger group, are better in the big games and should be fresher after what was little more than a training exercise for 45 minutes against Benfica.

 

I highlighted the relevant part of those notes, they dominated a decent Benfica side, one very experienced in European terms, albeit weaker than last season and I think we will only really see the best of PSG in the bigger games. I feel they will want to put down a marker tonight and use the game to illustrate how strong they are. Edinson Cavani is missing along with right back Christophe Jallet, but that has been the case for several weeks and this is exactly the game that PSG have been protecting their other right back Gregory van der Wiel for, something we have discussed several times. 

Leverkusen have lost form at the wrong time and have lost five of their last seven in all competitions, they are without suspended midfielder Emre Can (26-2-5 all comps), this compounds the likely loss of defensive midfielder Stefan Reinartz and leaves them short of options in areas where the visitors are their strongest.

I see quite a gulf in class and to lose at this stage of the competition would be a total disaster for PSG, whereas it is almost expected of Bayer. Away win.

1.5 units Paris St Germain -0.5 ball 2.21 Asian line/Ibramarket.