Saturday March 7th

There will be a follow up newsletter @ 13.00 UK time today.

QPR- Tottenham Hotspur

Supporters might still say the North London derby, but in many ways, you can make a case for this being Spurs biggest game of the seaon, at least until the next one ! With their Capital One final out of the way, eliminated from the Europa League and FA Cup, it is all about the Premier League now and Spurs will want, no, need, to stay in contention for a top 4 spot as long as possible. Lose this and they are effectively seven points off fourth spot with six teams above them in the table, win this game in hand and they are up to 6th and could go level with Manchester United in 4th with a victory at Old Trafford in eight days time. Three points today will keep the dream and season alive a little longer.
Of course, the game is no less important for Rangers who find themselves three points from safety after Aston Villa's midweek win. However, they have not beaten a single team in the top 12 of the EPL all season and are 0-1-8 against the top 7, including a 4-0 defeat in the reverse fixture, they rely hugely on the goals of Charlie Austin and if you cut off the supply to him, or limit it, you are already half way home. He has scored 15 of just 28 league goals, next best available goalscoring player ( Leroy Fer has a long term injury) is their back up striker "own goals" with three ! They have only managed 2 goals in eleven starts which were not scored by either Austin or Fer and all six league wins have come against teams who are, or were at the time of the game, in the bottom five. Hugely competitive midfielder Joey Barton is suspended, without him in the EPL over recent seasons Rangers are 1-1-13 , missing his influence it is far easier to control the centre of the pitch and the supply to the main striker. Spurs score a lot of late goals, only Manchester City have scored more, or have a better goal difference in the final 15 minutes of games and if they can get ahead and the hosts start to gamble, the visitors can further punish them late. We have also spoken many times about how well Spurs perform against the "weaker" teams, especially on the road and they have won 14 of 15 starts against promoted teams. 1.5 units Tottenham Hotspur -0.75 ball 2.07 asian line/Sportmarket .

League 2: Cheltenham Town- Mansfield Town

Very briefly, we spoke about teams upping their game at this stage of the season, once they realised they were in relegation trouble, a couple of weeks back and few teams are more motivated than those facing relegation out of the Football League. We touched upon Mansfield at that time and they raised their level of performance and given themselves a little breathing space over the drop zone. I do not think they will switch off just yet, but their need is not as great as the hosts, who sit 91st in the pyramid and face two road games after this, followed by two West Country "derby" fixtures and are incredibly motivated for the points this afternoon. The Robins have given themselves every opportunity and been ultra busy in the loan window, bringing in a host of talented and experienced players, adding Pablo Mills, Shaun Harrad and Matt Sparrow recently, the trio played in the 2-0 home win over Tranmere Rovers last week and whilst they lost at Carlisle United 1-0 in midweek, they could/should have got something from that and all three are expected to be better for the game time gained over the last seven days. Mills for example was said to be very influential in the first game, despite being some way off full fitness, this week Danny Haynes was also added, the four are closing in on 1,500 league appearances between them, much at L1 and Championship level and experience can take you a long way at this level. This is very big, albeit short term investment for a club like the Robins and I expect it to be rewarded. 1.5 units Cheltenham Town -0.25 ball 2.21 asian line/Sportmarket.

Championship:
Nottingham Forest- Middlesbrough
We discussed the Championship ,our long term positions and especially the tough schedule that Middlesbrough face over the coming weeks in the Thursday newsletter . By the way, if you are looking at that link,  Bubba got himself right into contention last night and is in a share of 4th place at the halfway stage, fingers crossed for a big Saturday from him, either way, we will discuss R4 there tomorrow. Back to Boro, that sequence of games starts today and Forest/ Ipswich/ Derby/Bournemouth, with three on the road,  as their remaining March fixtures are just about as brutal as you can get in Championship terms. You can argue that today is the easier of the four, I am not certain about that, but do know that the Cherries raised the bar last night with their big win at Fulham and that might be the incentive that Boro need to refind their road form, they will almost certainly need all three points to retain their lead at the top of the table and do have their squad in good shape ahead of this game, with Boro one week away from having an empty treatment room.......knock on wood ! Aitor Karanka believes that leaves his team in prime position for the run in and justification for his heavy rotation policy this season, he has rotated game by game with this stage of the campaign in mind and in the words of Maximus Decimus Meridius, it is time to "unleash hell". Boro know how good they are, they have 11 games left to prove it to every one else, there is no reason to hold back, the future has arrived and we should see the best available starting eleven every time they step onto the field with the possible exception of the Easter holiday games. This is the best squad in the Championship , they should have another 6-7 points in the bag and we should already be standing at the payout window in anticipation of their title win, unfortunately it is not going to be that easy. However, I do expect them to come on strong from now on in, the big midweek win gave them a platform to build on, albeit against weak opposition. Leadbitter, Adomah, Tomlin, Vossen, Bamford, Wildshut and Kike give them massive offensive options from starting eleven and bench, all are fit and available and the goals really need to start flowing. 1.5 units Middlesbrough -0.25 ball 2.12 asian line/Sportmarket.

Ipswich Town- Brentford

Ipswich Town are one of only four teams to have won at Griffin Park this season, doing all the damage early in a 4-2 win on Boxing Day. The Bees were not at the races that day and were 3-0 down inside 30 minutes, I have to accept my share of blame for that, as I was not in my usual seat for that game, or for the other heavy home defeat (Norwich City), rest assured that will not happen again ! Perhaps of more importance was the fact that the hosts had been given extended time off over the holiday period, perhaps too much and they fell out of the blocks in a morning kick off.

 There are quite a lot of similarities with this match and the return fixture with Norwich, where the Bees earned revenge with a 2-1 win, not only are both from the same part of the world and deadly rivals, but for some inexplicable reason, they had both decided to go down the long ball route just before the return game, after things were getting a little stale. These are not tactics which will work against the Bees, the ball will be coming back too often and at pace and I can see a similar outcome today. There are "issues" in that the visitors have been poor in their last two road starts, something I spoke about ahead of the midweek 4-1 defeat of Huddersfield, which you can read in full after the "good luck" sign off, Bees were good there and only the Terriers keeper prevented them scoring 6-7 goals.This is a huge game for both teams and could be key in our top six bet on Brentford, so there is no need to get overly involved, but I do see goals in this for the visitors, who have plenty of options today and could leave Gray, Jota and Toral on the bench, without weakening the starting line up, the first two have 19 goals between them and Toral four in his last three appearances, Alex Pritchard has had more attempts on goal than any other player in the Championship and this is a team with almost unlimited offensive threat and a lot of still untapped potential. There should also be freshness edge to the visitors who have played Sat-Tues (home)-Sat, whereas Town, have gone Sun (biggest game of the season)-Weds ( 7 -8 hour road trip) -Sat . I would not put any one off taking the visitors +0.25 ball, but the Bees do not do many draws , a league low four all season and none in 23 starts, so personally I have a problem with taking a quote which includes so much value with the stalemate, I would prefer the bigger odds for the straight away win, or even better, if you can find it .......1.5 units Brentford to score over 1.5 goals 2.90-3.0 general quote, anything above 2.75 offers value IMO.


Good Luck.


Brentford- Huddersfield Town  (written March 3rd)

The Bees were bad at Birmingham on Saturday and also made some poor decisions in terms of team selection, both pre and during the match. They were not quite as bad as for the recent defeat at Charlton, but I do expect a similar reaction this evening and for them to come out firing as they did against Bournemouth and Blackpool in the two subsequent home games, ahead of the first I wrote .....

When Brentford won at Leeds United just 14 days ago everything seemed to be fine and rosy at Griffin Park and the unlikely ( the Bees in the EPL) more and more possible. However, the news broke that boss Mark Warburton , assistant David Weir and Director of Football Frank McParland were not going to be retained next season and the delay over an official announcement, left the club in turmoil. If you want to read a little more, the official statement from the club is at the very bottom of this newsletter and is an interesting read.
There is a lot more which has not been said and the problem is that to people who do not understand, it looks like Matthew Benham is an interfering owner, much like any other and there have been and are, many of those. That is not the case, put simply, Brentford could easily be playing non league football as I type and have an eight figue debt to boot, instead, they will be playing in the EPL at some stage in the next 3-4 seasons, in a brand new stadium , debt free, it should also be understood that Benham probably knows more about the game than 95% of "football men". Obviously, any real Brentford supporter who understands the situation will give the owner their full support and Warburton and Weir, their sympathy, it is terrible the way things played out, no one wanted that , it is not the Brentford way, but it is done and hopefully over the next week or so, normality of a sort will return.
It is going to be very difficult, but not impossible for the Bees to maintain a promotion push, but I do not doubt that everyone connected with the club will try. The news first broke just ahead of the Watford game, where they battled well but played 55 minutes against one of the better teams in the division with ten men and lost to a last minute winner, it was an emotioanl roller coaster of an evening, I was wiped out afterwards, goodness knows how the players and management felt and they were mentally drained and in no fit state to do themselves justice at Charlton Athletic last weekend and it was the worst performance of the season from Brentford. Since then, they players have been given time away from the club, the statement has been made and hopefully they have regrouped. Signs at Jersey Road (the training ground (were that they have) and the contract extension of senior player Jonathan Douglas, who is a leader on and off the pitch, was announced yesterday and I feel the timing was carefully chosen.
The bad news today is that Jake Bidwell is serving the second of his three match ban, which leaves a problem at left back and that is the flank where Bournemouth have huge pace and talent. This "issue" was part of the problem and the owner wanted to bring in players in three key areas, including this position and that was obviously the right thing to do. Brentford could go with Nico Yennaris like last week, but that doesn't seem fair to the youngster who was crucified out of position there and this could be worse, or Tony Craig, Alan McCormack, Stuart Dallas or Moses Odubajo, any option would be kind of out of position, but I know what I would go for, unfortunately (and it is a shame), I am not picking the team. Odubajo has a good left foot, pace to spare and has played on that flank quite a bit early in the season, when he was switching flanks with Jota through games. That would allow McCormack to come in on the other side of defence in his natural position. Dallas who saw out the hour against Watford manfully covering for Bidwell could play on the left of midfield and help defensively on that flank (Dallas would be my second choice at LB) . Big plus is that James Tarkowski looks set to return to central defence and Alan Judge who has been player of the season, has returned to training and should be fit for at least for a cameo role after missing seven games with injury, I do not know what they feed him on, think they just wind him up like the duracell bunny and let him loose, but his high energy performance is just what the Bees need right now.
If Bidwell was playing and I knew Judge could play for 45 minutes +, I would be all over Brentford plus the handicap start like a rash, even now , it just doesn't feel right, even with all that has gone on over the last 12 days. Brentford could have two from Judge/Dallas/Toral/ Jota on the bench ,which is a lot of talent to leave out , especially when the one area where the Cherries are short, is central midfield . They are without Arter and O'Kane for sure, Gosling might make the bench, just 7 wins in 23 starts over the last three seasons (one of which was a promotion campaign) without Arter, who leads a lot of team stats , including possession and he is a big loss, more so as he has been ever present this season.
Bees mentally might still have a hangover and a problem on the left, but a boost elsewhere in terms of returning players and the Cherries short in the middle. odds just do not feel right ( sorry to repeat that.....they don't !)
Brentford's odds have drifted quite a bit this morning, if you read the preview , it is fairly easy to appreciate why, they might lose 3-0 today, but many of you will know that I am right far more times than not when odds drift and I always stick to my guns and own opinion (just took some 2.16 and win or lose, am very grateful for it and might bet it again later if odds go up again ), it is no good writing to me asking why the odds are on the rise , as I rarely look until close to kick off and it doesn't overly matter to me . In this case it is fairly obvious and I just see the match differently, in addition to which, I have no interest in what other bettors ( outsiders I mean) play and I doubt anyone else has given as much thought to the loss of Arter and how this match is subsequently likely to play out. However, the ball is round and anything can happen, but bigger quotes are always good in my book !
Just to update the preview, the rumour is that Dallas has been told he is playing at LB, that was my #2 choice, but suggests (he offers more protection ) that Judge is starting which would be fantastic news IMO, if that is true, the person cartwheeling to his seat just behind the home dug out will be me !
Jake Bidwell (see above) has now completed his suspension, they lost because he did not start on Saturday and looked more solid and posed a greater threat on the left flank after his belated introduction, it will not go down well if he doesn't start tonight and he will. Similarly, Alan Judge played the last quarter off the bench , he will surely start tonight, even if it is only for 60-75 minutes, they play at a much better tempo with him in the team and they will be at it from the get go if he starts and again, I cannot see him not doing so.Tthe visitors are without striker and top scorer Nahki Wells and central defender Joel Lynch (conceded an average of 2.4 goals per game in the five away games he has sat out this season). Bees were very upset by the loss in the reverse fixture , where, not for the only time this season they missed chance after chance. I feel the odds are fair tonight and if they are to win, it is likely to be by two or more, as four of the last five home wins have been. 1.5 units Brentford -0.75 ball 2.19 asian line/Sportmarket.
 
 
Saturday March 7th #2

Next newsletter will be sent @ 11.00 UK time on Sunday.

Very little more to pass on, I am going to leave the MLS games for at least one week and there was not much else to overly excite, but we can look at a couple of games mainly from a stats base.

Ligue 1: Evian - Monaco/ PSG-Lens
Both PSG and Monaco will surely be looking to get back to winning ways after drawing with each other last weekend, they also met in the cup in midweek, but that had very little interest for ASM, who look strong favourites to qualify for the Champions League quarter finals after their first leg win at the Emirates, that and trying to force their way into the top 3 will be a priority for them. PSG still have a lot of work to do in Europe and travel to London to play in midweek. So, both will want to win today (of course), there is a bigger incentive for PSG to get things done early.
The Parisians have been most productive at home between the 16th-45th minute , when they are 12-0 in terms of goals scored/conceded, they also came from behind early to score in the 28th and 33rd minute to lead the reverse fixture, which got very feisty after the break, with three red cards and PSG will also be keen to avoid a repeat, early lead , maybe a second goal and then look to kill the game. 1.25 units PSG at the first asian quote above 2.0 in First Half betting approaching the 15 minute mark, as long as they are not already leading and we are playing 11 v 11.
ASM are also worth a look late in each half as they are 4-0 in the last 15 minutes of the first half on the road and 7-0 in the last 15 of the second. Evian are 0-4 at home between the 31st-45th minute, so maybe that is the way to go. They conceded in the 44th minute at home to Marseille and twice in the last ten to blow a 2-1 lead to Lyon , so they have "previous" form along these lines to the other "big" clubs. But I will leave this one up to you.
Serie A: Sampdoria- Cagliari

Samp home games have averaged 1.33 goals before the break, 0.92 after, which is the wrong way round  ! Cagliari away starts have produced a whopping 2.25 per game in the first half , with a virtually equal split of goals scored and conceded, which is surprising given their league position. Last four h2h meetings have seen at least one first half goal and the visitors are far more offensive minded on the road nowadays. Only the three points should interest Samp, a draw might be acceptable for Cagliari, but they are not really set up to play that way and going for the win which would take them out of the drop zone for 24 hours will surely appeal. 1.25 units "over" 1 first half goal 2.05 asian line/Sportmarket.

Bundesliga: Hannover- Bayern Munich

Bayern still have a little work to do against Shakhtar in midweek, but will want to retain their eight point lead at the top of the Bundesliga and not offer Wolfsburg any encouragement. They have won on their last two visits here by a combined 10-1 , leading at the half 3-0 and 2-0 , they would doubtless love a repeat, but Hannover will not want to suffer another humiliation in front of their own supporters and I expect them to put a lot of effort in early. They are +4 at home in terms of goal difference before the break, -5 after and on the road Bayern are +5/+12 respectively. Anyway, if we go in all square (level) at the break, or Hannover are ahead, I will take the first asian quote above 2.0 for Bayern for 1.5 units , as always, we have to be playing 11 v 11.


Good Luck.