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Wednesday April 2nd

There is a follow up newsletter @ 11.00 UK time today.

AFC Champions League:

Shandong Luneng- Pohang Steelers

Yesterday Ulsan lost 3-1 at Guizhou Renhe and afterwards the Korean coach blamed the distance travel and " unforgiving domestic schedule" upon the defeat, he claimed his players were very tired and had no energy left.

Steelers make a much shorter journey from Pohang, but also have two important K-League fixtures over the next seven days and come into this having played on Saturday (Shandong had their fixture moved to Friday) and the Korean clubs have been given little help in terms of scheduling from their federation.

The hosts are missing a few players today, which we will return to shortly, but are a step up in terms of both ability and ambition from Guizhou, something we touched upon on Matchday 2, when ahead of their trip to play Cerezo Osaka I wrote ...,,
Chinese clubs are looking to replicate the success of Evergrande and Shandong were the closest  domestic challenger to Guangzhou last season , some way adrift, but also 8 points clear of Beijing Guoan who finished in third. Guoan qualified from the group stage last season, taking four points from the J-league champions in the process.

Shandong look stronger and in Vagner Love, Walter Montillo and Aloisio, have South American offensive quality most of you will be familiar with and some very decent domestic players with six in the national team at present. The backine has been built around Australian international Ryan McGowan, whom you might know from Hearts in the SPL.

They were devastated by an injury time equaliser in their group opener, which robbed them of all three points, but have now started their league and should be fitter and better able to see out the game today and will be hugely motivated to get a result ahead of a trip to group favourites Pohang Steelers next week.

Their coach Cuca is vastly experienced and won the Copa Libertadores with Atlético Mineiro last year, his experience in international club competitions will be vital and why he was brought into the club. His stock was high, his demands equally so and in many ways this is no less an appointment than Marcello Lippi at Evergrande was.

For the home side the loss of central defender Kota Fujimoto (see below) will be far bigger today than against Vortis. I like the visitors, a "shock" away win would not surprise me and the handicap start looks big.

Hard to believe, just three weeks on, that they were 5.0 + for that game, but they were and won 3-1. They have subsequently drawn 2-2 in Pohang, where they led for 65 minutes in what was a very bad tempered game, which robs both teams of players today.

Shandong will be without the suspended defensive midfielder Jin Jingdao and versatile right sided player Zhao Mingjian, but coach Cuca has played those down and said he has plenty of cover and options. Steelers are without banned right back Kwang-Hoon Shin, they have conceded four goals in the last two Champions League games he has missed. 

“Cuca feels his team upped their game a level in a 1-0.defeat of Liaoning Whowin on Friday, when his team created a lot of chances and played much better than the scoreline indicates. He finished his thoughts ahead of this match by saying :“Physically we are getting better, and our team work has been built up. My team has prepared well over the last few days.” I feel the odds on the home side offer good value 1.5 units Shandong Luneng -0.25 ball 2.05 asian line/Ibramarket.

Buriram United -Cerezo Osaka

Hosts have disappointed in the competition this year after making the last eight in 2013 and failure to claim at least a point today and preferably three, will see them booked for the group wooden spoon.

Launching pad for their progress last year was their form on home soil, where they drew 0-0 with FC Seoul, beat Jianty Sainty 2-0 and drew 1-1 with Vegalta Sendai ( where they led until deep in injury time). This is not an easy place to come, not least because of the weather and it is going to be very hot and humid in Buriram today and a bit of a shock to the system for Cerezo, who left pleasant early season weather in Osaka with temperatures in the high teens, to find it 20 degrees hotter and very humid in Thailand. That would not have been a surprise for them, but what did shock me was that the visiting coach "hoped that Buriram would supply his team with enough water", as most teams would take their own and not rely on opponents to keep them hydrated, maybe it was a Japanese joke !

Cerezo have more quality and we have talked about the addition of Diego Forlan already this season, but I doubt he, or anyone else will enjoy the conditions today and I suspect they would just like to get this over with. They won the reverse fixture 4-0, but it was played in very different circumstances ( cold and wet) and United were on the back foot from the off , after conceding early and two goals came late, after they had "given up".  Hosts get very good support at home, they are comfortable on the ball, have good delivery from wide and dead balls and are much stronger aerially than you might think .A draw would not be a bad result at all for the visitors and under the circumstances, it is hosts plus the draw for me. 1.25 units Buriram United +0.5 ball 2.11 asian line/Ibramarket.

Good Luck.

Wednesday April 2nd #2

Next newsletter will be at the standard time of 10.00 (UK ) on Thursday and will include the weekend schedule .

UEFA Champions League: Paris St Germain- Chelsea

I have already indicated several times already this season how strong I feel this PSG squad are and now their season really starts. They have wrapped up the Ligue 1 title now and reached the last 8 of the Champions League and I guess coming into the campaign, that would have been their two targets, but it is now that the hard work begins and the Qatar Investment Authority can see exactly what, in world terms, their masive investment has brought them. Money has been no concern in building this team, 55 million for Edinson Cavani to play out of position (or not at all) for example and at times, with upwards of 200 m euros worth of talent warming the bench. That was the case in the first leg against Leverkusen, my preview of which is reproduced at the foot of the email. They won that 4-0 and in truth, have rarely got out of second gear this season and I wonder how good they can be.

The worry is that they do not meet the highest level of competition domestically week in week out, but that could also be said about Bayern and Dortmund ( possibly Real, Atletico and Barce too) and few would question their credentials. They have certainly not be been found wanting when they have had to up their level a notch, but (of course) Jose Mourinho has started the mind games and has been questioning the quality of Ligue 1 this week, looking to get inside the head of his counterpart.

However, I feel PSG will have learned a lot from their quarter final with Barcelona last season, where they were unfortunate not to win both legs IMO and they look much stronger this time round. They toyed with Benfica here in the group stage, I underestimated the Portugese side at the time ( see below) and they are now our Europa League selection and on reflection, what PSG did there in the opening 30 minutes was incredible.

Upfront, they have Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Edinson Cavani and Ezequiel Lavezzi, Chelsea have Fernando Torres and Demba Ba ( Samuel Eto'o did not travel) and that alone is a mismatch. Mourinho has spoken all season about his lack of striking options and that is true and not his usual fodder for the media. The Blues are a different animal at Stamford Bridge , but have lost their last two away starts at Aston Villa and Crystal Palace and in this competition drew at Galatasaray ( when they started well , but faded) and lost 1-0 at Basel, where they left they game on the team bus. The visitors are hugely experienced at this level and PSG will want a lead to take to the second leg, not easy, but odds are nice and I simply think the hosts are stronger and meeting Chelsea at the perfect time. 1.5 units Paris St Germain -0.5 ball 2.11 asian line/Ibramarket.

UEFA Champions League: Real Madrid- Borussia Dortmund

These two met at the semi final stage of the competition last season, with Dortmund winning 4-1 in the home leg, losing the return 2-0. I think it is fair to say that Borussia have gone slightly backwards since then, although the Bundesliga table indicates just by three points, however, they are less of a surprise package and forewarned is forearmed.

Real have suffered a dip in form, well , for three halves, losing that huge "derby" with Barcelona and then away to Sevilla, but at least stopped the "rot" with a 5-0 win at the weekend and this season, under Carlo Ancelotti have looked stronger, faster , not as suspect at the back and more flexible in terms of game plan. He was in charge of PSG at this stage last season, but watched the Real-Dortmund games and his reading of them was spot on , which was that for three halves of football Real were on top and very comfortable, in the other, they were destroyed.

Real will not want to travel to Germany without a lead and would prefer it to be two or more and looking at team news, this heavily favours the hosts, with Dortmund decimated by injury and suspension. They are without star striker Robert Lewandowski ( 35-22-14 in Bundesliga and CL) who is suspended, in addition to injuries to  Neven Subotić , Marcel Schmelzer , Jannick Bandowski, Sven Bender , İlkay Gündoğan  and Jakub Błaszczykowski . Łukasz Piszczek has struggled with injury all season and did not feature in the weekend league fixture.

That is a lot of talent to be missing, seven of the players named above played in the semi here last year (another has left) and some inexperienced players are going to have to overperform in a very daunting arena.

Hard to put into words how important Lewandowski is, he has failed to score or assist in three Champions League games this season , all of which they lost and he failed to register in all six Bundesliga matches in which Dortmund have tasted defeat. Last season in the CL, when he scored or assisted they were 6-2-0, when he didn't 1-2-2. However, it is defensively they look severely weaker and I just do not know how they are going to stop the Real offensive wave. I favour a resounding win, by 2 goals +.1.75 units Real Madrid -1.75 ball 2.38 asian line/Ibramarket.

Good Luck.

Tuesday February 18th

 

Champions League@ Bayer Leverkusen-Paris St Germain

 

Long term readers know that I am a fan of PSG and I feel they will go very close in the Champions League this season, unusually, I want to reproduce some notes from the league match with Marseille back in October.....

 

Absolutely no love lost between these two clubs and this is far and away the hottest derby in French football. The hosts would love to win this, three points would take them up above the Parisians and into second place, but they just look a level below both PSG and Monaco and although most teams will come away pointless from Dortmund, the level and manner of the 3-0 midweek defeat and earlier home loss to Arsenal, is a clear indication of where they stand in the bigger European picture. Borussia played at a very high tempo and the furious pace never allowed OM to catch breath, let alone get into the match, that seems sure to have taken a toll, maybe mentally more than physically.

Matters were probably not helped when they saw their hated rival cruise past Benfica, who made a European final last year, racing into a 3-0 lead inside 30 minutes and easing home. Such was their level of dominance that PSG boss Laurent Blanc changed his team around completely with 20 minutes remaining and experimented with 4-4-2, with Edinson Cavani moving into his preferred central position. That is the kind of thing you might do in league game if 3-0 up at home, not in the Champions League against quality opposition and is a sign of how confident PSG are right now, they are clearly starting to fire on all cylinders after a sluggish star to their season.

Almost all their stars are back now, just Thiago Silva remains sidelined and such is the array of talent available to Blanc that he cannot even find a spot in the squad, let alone the bench, for Jérémy Ménez (42-8-10 last season in all comps and who would walk into any other starting eleven in France). In addition to the two Champions League defeats, OM also lost at home to Monaco and they keep coming up just short in all their big games. Zlatan had been in something of a drought ( two goals in nine PSG starts) by his own incredibly high standards before his brace in midweek, you know I love a striker in form and he will be up for this today, he scored three against OM last season, including twice in this fixture and I have seen 7.0-8.5 for him to repeat that feat and score 2+ today, which is tempting. The hosts do get André-Pierre Gignac back today, he has sat out the last three with a toe injury and I suspect, if this had been anyone else, he would not have been named today either, a sign of how big this match is. Left back Jérémy Morel again misses out and OM have lost 8 of the last 13 matches he has missed and we are talking about a team who have lost just 19% of starts (16/84) over the last two and a bit seasons. The visitors are a much stronger group, are better in the big games and should be fresher after what was little more than a training exercise for 45 minutes against Benfica.

 

I highlighted the relevant part of those notes, they dominated a decent Benfica side, one very experienced in European terms, albeit weaker than last season and I think we will only really see the best of PSG in the bigger games. I feel they will want to put down a marker tonight and use the game to illustrate how strong they are. Edinson Cavani is missing along with right back Christophe Jallet, but that has been the case for several weeks and this is exactly the game that PSG have been protecting their other right back Gregory van der Wiel for, something we have discussed several times. 

Leverkusen have lost form at the wrong time and have lost five of their last seven in all competitions, they are without suspended midfielder Emre Can (26-2-5 all comps), this compounds the likely loss of defensive midfielder Stefan Reinartz and leaves them short of options in areas where the visitors are their strongest.

I see quite a gulf in class and to lose at this stage of the competition would be a total disaster for PSG, whereas it is almost expected of Bayer. Away win.

1.5 units Paris St Germain -0.5 ball 2.21 Asian line/Ibramarket.