Four
matches to preview today, one Champions League fixture and three
Football League games. The weather in the UK is a big concern, it was
incredibly cold yesterday, there was plenty of snow around, both
overnight and early morning and we could see matches postponed,
therefore, I will keep previews a little briefer than normal. Forecast
is worse in the South and East of the country and I have already culled
one match, the League 2 fixture between Southend United and Wimbledon,
from my list.
Champions League : Schalke 04- Galatasaray
I
have to take a little on the visitors getting a nice handicap start,
Schalke will progress with a 0-0 draw and that has to be seen as a
bonus, especially with the hosts missing striker Klaas-Jan Huntelaar
(34-16-4 all comps), also missing are fellow striker Ciprian Marica
(21-7-6) and suspended defensive midfielder Jermaine Jones (29-2-6),
only CL match he missed was the 2-2 home draw with
struggling Montpellier, which is interesting. Ibrahim Afellay and
ineligible Raffael are also unavailable. Atsuto Uchida (see below) is
available. We discussed the first leg which ended 1-1 three weeks ago
...
The Turk Telekom Arena is the venue where big spending Galatasaray entertain a Schalke
team for whom little has gone right
this season and especially in recent months. The visitors started their
campaign well enough and were the closest challenger to Bayern at the
end of October, sitting second in the table, just four points behind the
leaders. but they have gone 2-4-7 in the Bundesliga since then, falling
27 points behind the Bavarian giants. They have also lost early in the
DFB Pokal, sold Lewis Holtby (19-4-7) to Tottenham Hotspur, sacked coach
Huub Stevens, replacing him with Jens Keller ,but no immediate
improvement has been forthcoming and all their eggs are now in this
particular basket, as it is going to be tough to challenge for a top 4
place in the Bundesliga. Klaas-Jan Huntelaar has missed the last three
weeks, but was passed fit to play on Monday and they will be looking to
him to add to his four CL group goals.
If things have gone badly at Schalke, the opposite is true at big spending Galatasaray who lead the Super Lig by six points and who have upgraded their squad with the eyecatching signings of Didier Drogba and Wesley Sneijder. With the kind of money they have spent comes added pressure and they will be expected to win this evening. Coach Fatih Terim is clearly going to stick with 4-4-2 and the early indication is that it will be easier for Drogba to slip into this formation,he will probably play alongside Burak Yilmaz who has been prolific this season , 24-18-5 in all competitions including six Champions League goals, In addition to this trio , Johan Elmander (14-4-1), Umut Bulut (21-12-3) and the wide pair of Albert Riera and Hamit Altintop give them huge offensive options. The delivery from both flanks is good, Galatasaray scored four group goals from headers and we know how good Drogba is aerially, given how suspect the visitors are the the back, this could be key.
Schalke are good on the break, they have brought in Michel Bastos from Lyon on loan to replace Afellay and he has made an immediate impact with three goals in three starts, he and Jefferson Farfán on the other flank will pose a real threat, especially on the counter with the home backs liking to push up and with KJH back, they will have a target man up front.
I think goals will come in this, but they might take a little time, 15 of Yilmaz's 18 goals have come in the last hour of games and Schalke have scored 67% and conceded 64% of all their goals this season after the break. This pair scored 17 goals between them in the group stage, with 13 coming after the break and two very late in the first half. This seems likely to follow suit and to get increasingly stretched, we have seen a few early goals this season in the earlier knockout matches, but that is not the norm, with the eight first leg matches last season seeing no goals in the opening 20 minutes and 17 of the 22 (77%) coming after the 39th minute
Given
that shortage of early goals and the fact that Schalke do not need to
score, it is easy to see this starting slowly and the quote for the
visitors quickly offering trading opportunities, if that is your
"thing". Either way, I will give the visitors a little of my money.1.25 units Galatasaray +0.75 ball 2.12 asian line/ Ibramarket.
Championship: Leeds United- Peterborough United
Posh
have really upped their game recently and even a point tonight, might
be enough to take them out of the drop zone. They have won seven times
in the last three months, after just four wins previously and in six of
those most recent wins, they have come out
firing from the off, being two up inside 14 minutes twice and scoring
ten goals within 32 minutes. It is key to keep them contained early and
if you do, they tend to lose their way and struggle to impose
themselves. Leeds are defensively solid ,conceding three in their last
five and two came very late, the hosts like to ease their way into games
and keep things very tight early, which means they should match up well
with Posh, at least IMO.
Hosts
are unbeaten in five and have a settled side with boss Neil Warnock set
to name an unchanged team for the sixth match running, although El
Hadji Diouf is available. Visitors should also be unchanged and are
likley to name the same starting line up, as that which drew 0-0 at
home to Ipswich on Saturday , where they were a little goal shy and have
keeper Robert Olejnik to thank for keeping them in the game and some
home biased refereeing, according to the visiting coach. This means
on-loan trio Davide Petrucci , Alex Pritchard and Scott Wootton all
remain sidelined and midfield options limited. Leeds would move to
within three points of Forest, currently in sixth with the win and with
two of the teams above them facing tricky road games, victory could be
even more valuable and really set up the derby game with Huddersfield on
Saturday. After playing a host of top clubs recently, Leeds next eight
starts are against teams with an average league placing of 16.5 and with
five of those at Elland Road, they are still very much in the post
season race. 1.5 units Leeds United -0.75 ball 2.13
asian line/ Ibramarket.
Leeds
have conceded 31% in the last 15 minutes, just 19% in the first 30,
which is when Posh come on strong, scoring an incredible 47% in the
first half an hour, conceding 32% in the last 15.
League 1: Brentford- Swindon Town
The
Bees were never at the races in defeats at Stevenage Borough and
Carlisle United last week, they looked nervous in both and very far from
the composed team we have seen for most of this season. However, a
return to Griffin Park might help, as I feel will playing another
promotion challenging team , one who will not come to TW8 looking to
shut up shop and whom they have already beaten this season. Brentford
won the reverse fixture 1-0 back in November (see foot of the page) in
what was a very professional performance, they dominated the match in
midfield and restricted the home team to mainly long range attempts.
Town have similarly lost their way a little too,
winning just three of their last nine, all of those came on the road
and they have posted nine away wins this season, in those three wins,
they trailed for 84 minutes at Coventry , met a Tranmere team short of
options and a Colchester side who had just come off a nine match losing
run. The Bees match up well with them in midfield and I know that the
visitors are looking to try and add a couple of loan signings in this
area. They have been playing Simon Ferry who likes to play in central
midfield on the right recently and coach Kevin MacDonald was looking to
move him back into the middle, but has doubts about Tommy Miller
(30-1-3), who did not train on Monday and several others and his hand
may be forced.Right Back Nathan Thompson (22-0-2) left the pitch injured
on Saturday and is another big doubt, Town have lost just one in 20
when he has played at least 30 minutes and that was the earlier loss to
Brentford.
Bees
are pretty much at full strength, only missing are long term injuries
to Mr Brentford Kevin O'Connor, who has just been given a new contract ,
which will see him pass 15 years at the club and striker Farid El
Alagui, both have now resumed training, FEA might return at the weekend
and confidence in this, has seen the Bees allow fellow striker Paul
Hayes go to Crawley Town on loan, KOC will need another week or so. Town
could go top 2 with the win, Brentford would go above Swindon with the
points, so you can see how valuable this would be to both. The hosts are
continuing to control matches, but not finish off the chances they are
creating, 19 again at Carlisle and that has to change and
soon, Trotta, Donaldson and Wright-Phillips are quality strikers and
the goals will flow once the next one comes and then, who the opponent
is, will not overly matter.
Massive match for the Bees, who need a confidence boost, no need for
you to get involved if you are on those big outright odds, but if not,
1.25 units Brentford -0.25 ball 2.25 asian line/ Ibramarket.
Brentford
have
scored 53% of all goals in the first half, 40% between the 16th and
45th minute. Town have conceded 39% in the first 30 minutes .
League 2 : Morecambe- Northampton Town
The
hosts 4-1 defeat at Barnet over the weekend sees them ten points off
the playoff spots and with five much bigger clubs above
them in the table and also trying to break into the top 7, with that
defeat, any already slim hopes of making the post season, have
effectively ended. They will be without suspended goal keeper Barry
Roche ( 34 starts) his back up,Andreas Arestidou, has played just 45
minutes in the last four months, central defender Andy Parrish (22-1-1)
has missed the last seven halves of football , during which the Shrimps
have conceded seven goals and is again a major doubt.
Town
are in very good shape, both team and results wise. After collecting 20
point from their opening 16 starts, they have 41 from their last 21 and
arrive here on the back of a 2-0 defeat of
Accrington Town, where they
rested
17 goal striker Adebayo Akinfenwa as a precaution, right sided
midfielder Chris Hackett (32-6-12) came into the team and scored the
opener on Saturday, after similarly being rested and boss Aidy Boothroyd
is keen to keep everything fresh and players hungry. The Cobblers have
assembled a decent squad, have one of the bigger playing budgets in
League 2 and with no injury concerns of note, have a whole host of
quality players like striker Jake Robinson and midfielder Luke Guttridge
, looking to force their way back into the starting eleven. Town are
pushing for a top 3 place and automatic promotion spot, they sit in 4th
one point below Burton, but have three teams below them within two
points and any failure to win now, is going to have consequences.
Hosts
have a poor record against the top six clubs this season, winning only
one of ten meetings and that came recently against a Port Vale who are
in freefall, failing to score in five and conceding two or more in six.
These midweek visits to clubs in the North on cold midweek nights are
never easy, but if Town show the right application, they should be up to
winning this. 1.5 units Northampton Town level ball 1.92 asian line/ Ibramarket.
This
match looks interesting "in play" hosts have conceded an incredibly
high 57% of goals in the last 30 minutes and Town have been prolific
over the same period, scoring 50% of all their goals.
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