With a little luck yesterday we could easily have had a cleansweep, that might have been unjust on Peterborough United, but Northampton Town (level ball) did more than enough to win. They hit the woodwork four (!) times and even after equalising late, had two huge opportunities in injury time to claim the points. There were big odds on the asian markets for Town late in the game, which were easy to take, looking at those last 30 minute stats. Brentford were again not themselves early on, but made some minor adjustments and were getting more and more into things, when Donaldson missed a very easy chance to give them the lead, 30 seconds later the Bees were behind and their heads dropped for 30 minutes, which is how things go for teams and people, when confidence is low. However, a pair of substitutions turned things around and once they equalised, there was only going to be one winner and they could/should have added a third or fourth goal. The win will have done them the worl d of good and hopefully we will see a return to their best in the coming weeks.
Champions League
Bayern Munich- Arsenal
Seeing +1.25 ball for Arsenal just seems wrong in any game, especially when the hosts already lead 3-1 and will surely be happy to see this out with the minimum of fuss. The Gunners have travelled without keeper Wojciech Szczesny, with Arsene Wenger saying that the Polish international has been "mentally affected" by the number of games he's had to play and he will be replaced by Lukasz Fabianski.Also out is Jack Wilshere, right back Bacary Sagna and striker Lukas Podolski ,on the plus side Abou Diaby, Andrey Arshavin and Kieran Gibbs, come back in. Fabianski has not played 90 minutes in 13 months which is a concern, but the backline in front of him will look a little more solid, if Gibbs starts. Wilshere is a big loss.
Bayern, are without Bastian Schweinsteiger, Jerome Boateng, Holger Badstuber and Franck Ribery, I assume that Luiz Gustavo will come in for Schweinsteiger, the only CL start he made this season was the shock 3-1 defeat at BATE, he will sit in front of Dante and Daniel van Buyten and it is fair to say that if there is a weakness in Bayern tonight, it is in this central spine. Arjen Robben, who has been listed as a doubt, looks set to play.
Hosts have won nine in a row at home in Europe and lost just one in 17, but that defeat came at this stage to Internazionale in 2010-11, after Bayern had won the first leg on the road, not for the first time, they paid the price there for over confidence and even with a two goal advantage this time, I expect a pretty cautious approach from them, at least early on.. The home side have conceded in 7 of their 13 home Bundesliga games and in all three CL group games, so hope there for the Gunners, who scored in all three group away starts, including twice at both Montpellier and Schalke.
We have not seen Arsenal since the North London derby loss to Tottenham, where aside from a ten minute spell just before the break, I thought they played as well as at any time this season, especially in the opening 20 minutes. If Wilshere was available, I would be in love with these odds for Arsenal, his loss makes things much harder. If the 5.0 for Arsenal to score two or more was freely available I would also be very keen on that, as I definitely expect the visitors to score and at some stage they will have to gamble big time and then it could develope into a shootout. As it is, I will opt for a minimal bet on Arsenal to score two or more, so, 0.75 units @ 4.2 +... there is 4.33 and 4.50 around and as I said, even 5.0 in a couple of places.
CONCACAF Champions League : Santos Laguna- Houston Dynamo
Many of you will be aware that I am a fan of Dynamo and especially coach Dominic Kinnear when it comes to playoff/ knockout football, he is tactically astute, ahead of their 2-0 win over Sporting Kansas City in the MLS Cup post season game, I wrote .....
However, it is very hard to shake off the feeling that Dynamo have Sporting's number and they just seem to step up a gear when the big games and the post season comes around. They trust their astute coach Dominic Kinnear completely and he is looking to lead them to a third MLS Cup in six years, he had the perfect game plan for Chicago in midweek and I suspect he will have another tonight. SKC have been talking a good game and have had a free week to prepare, but Kinnear and Dynamo get inside their heads and I do not think they will be too happy about this game, despite saying exactly the opposite and I am sure that deep down, they were cheeing on the Fire in midweek. In Ricardo Clark and especially Adam Moffat, Houston have the players to disrupt and break up the visitors attacking play and I really think this is the one bad match up for Sporting in the East. KC look to frustrate teams with their high pressing, but that doesn't work to the same degree against Houston, who do not have to have the ball, if that makes sense, it does in my head ! I just think Houston have all the answers here and I am not sure that SKC even know what the questions are against Dynamo, if you saw the post season match last year, then you will understand what I mean, they just couldn't establish any rhythm against them and the visitors haven't managed to turn things around in three regular season meetings since then. Houston to take a lead to the return leg.
Adding before the next home match with DC United which they won 3-1.....
Tonight, they host DC United and once again look to hold all the advantages. First up, they have had an extra 24 hours recovery time since the semi finals and that is big at this stage of the post season, they have also dominated United here in Texas with a 8-1-0 record ,including winning both meetings this season, the last 4-0 in July. For a defensive minded team Dynamo have no problems scoring against the side from the capital, notching two or more in 5 from 7 in the Lone Star State and in 4 from 5 in the reverse fixture, all meetings coming in the last four seasons. Finally, the visitors arrive with suspensions to keeper Bill Hamid (24-0-0), he has conceded an average of just under a goal per game this season, his back up 1.64 goals per game and right winger Andy Najar ( 25-0-4). I think both are big losses, really big. The pitch here at the BBVA Compass stadium has been designed to play to Houston's strength especially their delivery from set pieces, I wrote in detail about this earlier in the season, but cannot lay my hands on the notes now, so you will have to take my word for that ! Anyway, without the commanding presence of Hamid that is going to be even more of a problem. Also their offensive threat is lessened by Najar being out, it could be offset by the return of the hugely influential Dwayne de Rosario (26-7-9), but he has not played in ten weeks and to bring him in, will weaken them defensively and they do not want to do that coming here, I think he would be better off saved for the return, either way, they either miss him or risk him and neither is ideal. As I say, all or most of the advantages are with the hosts and biggest is they have the ideal playoff coach.
The playing surface at the BBVA Compass Stadium, where Dynamo won the first leg 1-0, is much narrower than at the Estadio TSM Corona in Torreon, where Santos have a awesome record and where it will not be so easy for Houston to stop the pacy home forwards, who thrive on these come from behind situations. The hosts are 18-1-0 here in Champions League play, with a +51 goal difference ! Most of all, like all Mexican teams, they love to "stick it to" their neighbours from the North, last year after losing and drawing close opening legs in last year's CCL knockout rounds to Seattle Sounders and Toronto FC , they won the return games by a combined 12-3, scoring six in each, they were two up early against the Sounders, but took 30 minutes plus to score the first against TFC, so will not panic if an early goal doesn't come tonight. BTW, yes I know that Toronto is in Canada !
Houston will sit back, try to frustrate Santos and hit them on the break, but there is a big gulf in class IMO and sooner or later, Santos will make the breakthrough, which is when the game will become interesting. I doubt Kinnear and his team will stray too far from their game plan at that stage, but it will definitely not be as easy for the visitors to limit space, especially out wide to the Mexican side as for the first leg. To be honest, I feel Santos were happy with things as they were at 0-0 and didn't seem overly bothered by the single goal defeat, until Houston scored late, Dynamo poised their greatest threat from set pieces and did not look like scoring from open play, the winner came in the 90th minute , one of only four attempts on target.
Dynamo signed Omar Cummings from Colorado in the off season, he has only just started training so we will not see him for a while, but will be a useful addition, they are otherwise similar to last season, 10 of the 11 who started in the MLS Cup decider against LAG , played last week. They will stick with what I call 4-5-1 on the road,it might be 4-2-3-1 with Bruin as the sole striker. Santos should have a big edge in fitness, ten games into their season, they should be at their peak, Houston didn't play over the weekend, which most see as an advantage, with only one MLS game under their belt, I feel another match would have suited them better.
Hosts are very confident, as you might expect looking at their record in this competition and they are fully committed to posting a first CL win, after finishing runner up last year. Mexican club sides have dominated, winning the last seven runnings and providing both finalists in five of those, Monterrey are looking for a hat-trick of wins and are on the other side of the draw, set to probably face Galaxy in the semis. The winner of this tie will meet Seattle, whom Santos will be very confident of beating, after the thrashing they gave them last season and are very hungry to get back to the final. Twelve Mexican teams have won the CL, but not Santos, which pains them and this is their main target for the season. 1.75 units Santos Laguna -1.5 ball 2.19 asian line/ Ibramarket.
Good Luck.
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