Saturday March 9th

Yesterday was an unmitigated disaster and I think we are better just passing over it for now, I will look at the highlights later today and maybe discuss them tomorrow morning.

We could do with wins for Watford and Brentford today for our long term positions, Cardiff City do not play today, which is just as well, as at the moment, I am unsure if I want them to win or lose in terms of our cover position on them .

Premier League : Reading - Aston Villa

We can trot all the cliches out for this one, it is a massive game at the foot of the table. I have a soft spot for the Royals, they are my nearest top flight club and have a blueprint for success that many clubs, like Brentford can look to emulate. However, the home squad is basically Championship level, one or two players aside , battling qualities can only take you so far at this level and there are only so many times you can be outplayed for 75+ minutes and come back from two down. They should definitely have at least seven points fewer and that would see them pretty much already doomed, they play far too gung-ho here at the Madejski and leave themselves exposed at the back too often, but cannot really play any other way. They really only have 2-3 players of PL quality and at least one of those Pavel Pogrebnyak (22-5-0) is suspended today, most of the others have to continually raise their game just to stay competitive, or be used sparingly in short bursts, like striker Adam Le Fondre, who is (26-10-1) but only made eight actual starts all season and Reading are 0-1-7 in those. I remember and this was not so long ago, big debate about whether ALF would be able to cut it at even League 1 level, let alone the Championship or higher, he was still playing fourth teir football at the start of last season and all the people clamouring for him to start, need to remember that and those stats when he does play 90 minutes. Keeper Adam Federici is again injured and will be replaced by Stuart Taylor who conceded three last week on his debut, after sitting on the Manchester City bench for three years, making one FA Cup appearance ! Jimmy Kébé (18-5-2) is also doubtful, Reading have won three times in 2013 and the pacy right winger has contributed in each, scoring three goals and assisting in two more.

Villa are simple the better team and play more like a mid table outfit at times, especially away from what has become a claustrophobic atmosphere at Villa Park, we discussed them last week ahead of their home game with Manchester City ... The hosts have a goal shy reputation, but in their last 16 starts they have scored in 12 ( inc last 7) and that sequence included four at Norwich, three on the road at both Liverpool and Everton and two at Swansea and WBA. They lost that 1-0 and again, an error cost them points, they should have the steadying influence of Ron Vlaar at the back today which will help and if the keep the errors to a minimum today, have the pace on the break and ability to stroke the ball around, to cause the Royals plenty of problems. Romelu Lukaku of WBA had a field day here recently, scoring twice and hitting the woodwork another two times and seriously could have scored five and another similar and equally inform striker, in Christian Benteke, who has scored six of his last eight on the road, could have just as much success for Villa. 1.5 units Aston Villa level ball 2.13 asian line/ Ibramarket.

Reading have scored 35% of all their goals this season in the last 15 minutes, but Villa have also scored 30% of their's after the 75th minute, between them, these two have conceded an eyepopping 63 goals in the last 30 minutes of games.

Bolton Wanderers- Brighton

You know that I am keen on Wanderers and especially their coach and his backroom staff, which I feel is top drawer. We last discussed them last weekend ahead of their trip to Barnsley....

Wanderers are starting to come good under Dougie Freedman, who is a top quality coach, they have finally broken into the top ten and next week face two matches against Blackburn Rovers and Brighton, teams around and above them in the table, a big seven days for the club and buoyed by consecutive home wins, especially the demolition of Hull City, they both need and can start picking up some wins on the road. They have drawn their last two away games, leading at Derby and then running into Forest on the return of Billy Davies and they were probably satisfied with those returns, but they need maximum points today. They had bad news this week with the injury to Mark Davies (24-6-1), he is out along with fellow midfielder Keith Andrews (25-4-0) but we spoke ahead of the match with the Tigers of their options ....They beat second placed Hull City 4-1 here at the weekend, with players like Chris Eagles, Kevin Davies, Craig Davies, David Wheater and Mohamed Kamara (Medo) on the bench, these are resources other Championship teams , or at least most, simply do not have.

Craig Davies scored 20 goals in his 18 months with Barnsley and will be looking forward to his return, veteran striker Kevin Davies will also be hoping to play some part, he gave Barnsley a lot of problems in the reverse fixture and the hosts were struggling aerially and to defend set pieces last week.If the Trotters are to hold any realistic promotion aims for this season, they simply have to win this afternoon and might be meeting Barnsley at the perfect time.

They won that 3-2 and followed up with a derby victory over Blackburn Rovers, courtesy of a late, late winner in midweek. Those two wins give them a top six chance now and they would close to within a maximum of three points of a playoff spot with a win this afternoon. On the bench in midweek was Stuart Holden, who is clearly getting ever nearer to a permanent return to action, which just further highlights the impressive options Freedman has at his disposal. Holden is a PL level international midfielder and if he can recover even 90% of his old form and play some part in the run in, it could be just the boost the Trotters need. Freedman spoke about these options and his staff this week  "“I know Brighton inside out and so do the player,” said the Bolton boss. “What we are doing now because of where we are in the season is working more in the visual room. “The analysis guys are working overtime and it is credit to them how hard they are working. “We did a lot of work on Friday morning on what Brighton like to do, where they score their goals from and their weaknesses. “The players will understand exactly Brighton’s strengths and weaknesses on Saturday. We have got players in the team who are fresh and can hurt Brighton and with our state of mind right now we can approach the game feeling confident we can opposes ourselves on Brighton. “I have done my homework but it is more about how we play. The supporters want to see commitment and I want to install tactical knowledge into that and hopefully they will be the ingredients to win the game.”

Brighton do not score enough goals for me, they are the lowest scorers in the top 9 and whilst tough to beat, they draw far too many games, with a too cautious approach, they will be tough to break down, but man for man, the hosts are stronger, quite a bit actuallyIMO,, they have also created a Championship high 448 attempts on goal and Fredman has not lost to the Seagulls in three meetings as coach of Palace and Brighton. 1.5 units Bolton Wanderers -0.5 ball 2.26 asian line/ Ibramarket.

I am going to stick with those two for this afternoon and will cover the later matches in the follow up email, which I will forward at 13.30 UK time.

There is some 2.75 in a place for Villa to score over 1.5 goals and as high as 7.0 for them to score three or more, this match has huge potential to develope into a shootout if the first goal come early enough , Reading have conceded three here to Tottenham, Fulham, Manchester United, Arsenal (twice), Wigan and should have done so to both WBA and Everton and if you can find either, or close to, those top prices, they are worth taking for minimal stakes.


Good Luck.