Sunday #2 Email March 10th

I am incredibly drawn to the two MLS fixtures tonight, but learned a lession from J-League, who said you can't teach an old dog new tricks(!) and am going to sit out at least one more week, I know that this is frustrating for some of you, as we milked our "Summer" leagues last season, but there is no rush and the games never dry up !

Just one more football selection....

La Liga: Celta Vigo- Real Madrid

These two met in the Copa del Rey at the turn of the year and we discussed the first leg ( preview is reproduced below), when we were on the side of the hosts getting the handicap start, they won 2-1, leading 2-0 with four minutes to play, so that was a comfortable winner. I doubt that Real will exactly have revenge on their mind this evening, as they turned things around with a 4-0 victory in the return leg. That is not to say that Real will not crave the points, as they will want to pip Atletico for second, but they will be jaded after a tough and emotional roller coaster of a game at Old Trafford on Tuesday and their opponent is going to strain every sinew for every ball ad will surely be the hungrier of the two .

Celta remain in deep trouble, still two points from safety, they might be eyeing up a road win at basement club Deportivo next week in the always hard fought Galician derby, but will also need something from at least one of their next two home starts and after Real, Barcelona are next in town. I still rate the hosts a little better than some of the other strugglers and they have that big set piece threat, which can again cause Real problems. Coach Abel Resino is without fringe midfielder Natxo Insa (10-0-0) and right back Hugo Mallo (17-0-0 .... not played in two months), but they have no new injuries.

Real claimed to have doubts about Cristiano Ronaldo and Xabi Alonso earlier this week, but both have travelled with the squad, Angel Di Maria (23-4-9) has stayed in Madrid, he has been a massive player in big games for Real since the turn of the year and of course, Iker Casillas remains out injured, but they have a surplus of riches all over the pitch. The visitors have only covered this handicap three times in 13 road starts in La Liga  and have struggled in their last two outings away to other teams battling relegation, losing 1-0 at Granada and beating Deportivo 2-1 after trailing with 17 minutes to play. I have to give Celta another try. 1.25 units Celta Vigo +1 ball 2.20+ asian line/ Ibramarket.

Real :Diego López, Adán ,Jesús,  Pepe, Carvalho, Marcelo, Arbeloa, Albiol , Nacho,  Khedira, Kaká, Özil, Xabi Alonso, Essien, Modric, Callejón,  Cristiano Ronaldo, Benzema, Higuaín and Morata.

WGC Cadillac Championship

Leaderboard:

-18 Woods
-14 McDowell
-13 Stricker
-13 Mickelson
-11 Bradley
-11 Schwartzel
-11 Thompson
-11 Garcia
-10 Jacobson
-10 Watson
-9 or worse the field

Tiger should win from here, but I am far more interested in the market without him. It is not impossible for someone to come from five strokes or further back to snatch second, but it is unlikely with such a high class group with seven of the nine players directly behind Woods ranked Top 20 in the World and the other two ,Thompson and Jacobson both at the top of their game and having won recently / recovered from injury, respectively.

I have priced the nine at roughly 94% which is effectively giving a 6% chance to "the field ", in a margin free book.

4 McDowell, 4.5 Stricker, 5 Mickelson, 15 Schwartzel, 18 Bradley, 25 Thompson, 25 Garcia, 40 Watson, 50 Jacobson.

I am not going to discuss all the field, we were on McDowell last week for a top ten finish and he battled well for us in tough conditions. If he was close to Woods, I would fancy him more, I know that is kind of stating the obvious, but what I mean is, he might start by giving this his best shot today, but if he doesn't make ground up over the early holes and with some tiredness surely in his legs, he could let this round slip away a little. No one will convince Big Phil that he cannot win from here and that is a problem, second will be like 10th to him and he will gamble and take a lot of chances to try and catch Tiger.

Long time readers of the blog/ my notes will not be surprised that I like Steve Stricker, he is playing a reduced schedule this year, but in his two previous outings, he was 2nd in the Hyundai ( where he struggled with a back injury) and T5th in the Matchplay event.

He is a proven early season performer winning in each of the last three seasons, before the end of May and his R4 record in contention is very solid, equalling or bettering his position on 15 of the last 21 occasions he has started R4 inside the top 5. He will not be as gung-ho as one or two of the others , but once he gets into a groove, he is very tough to outscore.

He spoke on Friday about this schedule ....

Q. When we talked in January, you said obviously you were not going to play as much this year but maybe that would be a benefit to you playing a little less. Wondering, so far, do you feel like that's working out the way you want? 
STEVE STRICKER: Very much so. Yeah, I feel good about the decision that I've made. This is my third event, and besides taking the six weeks off prior to playing at the Match Play, my breaks are not going to be as I'll have two or three weeks, or a week, and I'll stay probably sharp enough at home, play a little bit with my daughter and hit balls when I can still at home in the snow. 
But yeah, I'm enjoying it and I can tell in my attitude out here, it's good, and I think that's the biggest thing is I'm coming out here rested, refreshed, excited to play and it's showing in my game, too.

Not going to waste too much time on this, or bet too much, the wind is forecast to get up today and then anything could happen, but Striker has performed solidly on similarly exposed courses, especially in Hawaii ( and already this year), nothing is going to phase him and he looks far and away the steadier of the front  three challengers for me. 1 unit Stricker without Woods 5.0 general quote

Good Luck.


COPA DEL REY: CELTA VIGO - REAL MADRID ( December 12th)

Celta did us a favour in the previous round with a 3-0 second leg defeat of Almeira, ahead of which I wrote ....
I am pretty certain that Celta only really have eyes on survival this season having got back into the top flight, but you could also argue a similar case for Almeria, who are top two in "Segunda" and looking for a return to Primera themselves. let's accept that both have other long term aims and forget that. The visitors hold a 2-0 lead from the first leg, so will be happy to lose by one goal tonight. Celta rested everyone for that match, not one of the players who started played in the win at Zaragoza on Monday and they only averaged three league appearances between them and many of those were from off the bench. Almeria had much the better of that game, but Celta held out until the second half and caused some problems especially aerially from set pieces and "took the lead" through one, but the "goal" was disallowed. They fell behind and then were reduced to ten men..... game over !

Having played on Monday and with a league game this weekend, we could have expected them to go with a similar line up tonight, but they have built up some momentum and look to want to keep it, they have named an 18 man squad (see below) which includes 10 of the starters and six of the bench, from the Zaragoza match and they look to be treating this with great respect. 

They were really up for that game and so too were the crowd, so we can expect a similar approach from both tonight. The hosts do not have a La Liga fixture until Monday, so can afford to name a strong squad for this high profile match and look to be getting a big handicap start , in eight home starts this season they have yet to concede more than a single goal and Real will surely be looking at the bigger picture and know that they can get the job done in the second leg, almost regardless of what happens here. They have had a busy December playing Atletico , Ajax and a tough come from behind win at Valladolid all in the last 11 days and will surely rotate their starting eleven this evening. The hosts have had little travelling to do recently with two home fixtures and a short hop over to Bilbao in the last 16 days and should be as fresh, as any newly promoted team can be at this stage of the campaign, they will still only really have survival as a target for this season IMO, but will surely want a big showing tonight, in what is their first home match against one of the big two for some time.The pair did meet in Madrid about seven weeks ago with Real easing home 2-0, but I expect things to be closer this evening. Real have looked vunerable from set pieces and Celta have good delivery and can exploit this weakness, especially if the visitors change the backline around a little as anticipated , with Nacho at left back and Adan in goal, like for their last Kings Cup tie. Some late tests for Celta, so no confirmed team news, but in front of a sell out crowd, they will surely field their strongest possible line up. 1 unit Celta Vigo +1 goal 2.33 asian line.