Inter and Chelsea made it two from two again yesterday and also, anyone reading the preview in full will have probably spotted this "with the visitors already having conceded twice at both Stuttgart and Ajax, looking especially vunerable aerially in both and with Terry, Ivanovic, Cahill all poising a big threat from set pieces and having 15 goals between them this season, whomever starts from that trio ,will probably fancy their chances of adding to their tally at circa 7.5-8.5 to score at anytime". John Terry was the only one of the trio to see action and scored the second goal, he was circa 8.0 in the anytime market. Further good news was that Benfica (see foot of the page) made it through to the last eight and we will take a look at our position on them after today's draw for the quarter finals.
Follow up email at 16.30 UK time today with the Saturday morning J-League matches and any late news for tonight's fixtures.
France Ligue 2:
Three selections today......
Le Mans- Nimes
Le Mans are without Chinese defensive midfielder Jiaqi Zhang (4-1-0 ..... lost one of four when he has played), left back Jason Buaillon (18-0-5) and left winger Olivier Thomert (12-0-1), We have spoken many times about how they had a squad prepared for third tier football and that a last minute reprieve from relegation, left them short of Ligue 2 quality. Lack of options in certain positions is all too apparent ,they look short on the left tonight and having named just four defenders, have added a third choice and inexperienced defender to midfield, where he might be asked to play out of position. All is not well at the club, salaries have been paid late again and they have only won five of their last 21 starts, those wins came against Laval, Gazelec, Chateauroux, Niort and Sedan, all are in the bottom eight and four were in the drop zone when they played Le Mans. They have beaten just one top 7 team all season, a shock 2-0 win at Caen, this is a match we have discussed ofte n and one Le Mans should have lost by 3-4 goals !
Nimes have served us well recently and are having a tremendous season, they remain in sixth just four points off the automatic promotion spot, but their challenge has stalled a little with a 3-0 defeat at Guingamp and 1-1 home draw with Tours last week, in what was a wide open game, with chances at both ends. This looks on paper a good opportunity to get back on track and at least prolong their season a little longer. However, they will have to do so without defensive midfielders Jonathan Parpeix (16-0-1) and Abdelmalik Hsissane (13-0-0 .... won six of his last seven starts), offensive midfielder and top scorer Vincent Gragnic (25-13-2) . Granic has not missed a game in eight months, the first two games of the season, during which Nimes didn't score a goal. They managed one last week and as I said, could have scored more, but equally, looked vunerable to a team prepared to attack them.
Where does this leave us ? Hosts are better going forward, short of defensive options, especially on the left and just one point outside the drop zone and facing a six pointer with Laval next week, must feel they need a result from this game. Nimes will obviously miss those key players and will allow Le Mans chances and miss the threat of Gragnic, but right winger Nicolas Benezet ( 24-8-6) could hardly be in better form ( 10-6-4) in the last three months and could have a field day on his flank and both he and Seydou Koné ( 23-5-1) who scored both goals in a 2-1 win in the reverse fixture ( one assisted by Benezet), will be looking forward to this.
I feel we might see goals, but I am going to take Nimes with the draw no bet option, the home squad simply do not look strong enough, four of the likely starters today are aged 19 or younger and I do not think a season in the third tier would have done them any harm, maybe it will come next season ! 1.25 units Nimes level ball 2.26 asian line/ Ibramarket.
Le Mans : Janot, Makaridze, Cuffaut, Baby, Koné, Kassai, Thomas, Baal, Landel, Zito, Omrani, Sanson, Sido, Cissé, Sylla, Mendes, Belfort
Nîmes : Merville, Al-Shaïbani, Amewou, Bénézet, Benyahia, Boche, Bouby, Fanchone, Haddou, Koné, Nouri, Ogounbiyi, Poulain (c), Robail, Sidibé, Sbaï.
Istres- Clermont
We discussed Istres on Monday, ahead of their postponed game with Caen ....
Istres have lost their way big time and if they lose again this evening, they will have collected just 9 points from their last 14 starts, after picking up 24 from their first 14 fixtures. They have not won on the road since a late September win at Sedan, who have been bottom of the table virtually all season. The visitors have overachieved by staying in Ligue 2 comfortably enough for the last two seasons, they even had one season in the top flight in 2004-05, but their budget, which is the second lowest in the division and only marginally bigger than Gazelec, who have taken over from Sedan as the basement club, means even survival is a feat. They are operating on a playing budget of about 15% of that of Monaco and I wouldn't be surprised if "real" figures showed an even bigger discrepancy.
Istres got a vital 1-0 win over Sedan last week, but had not scored in their previous seven starts in all competitions and just four points above the drop zone and with four of their next six starts on the road, they are firmly in danger of relegation, despite their current 12th place.
They are without holding midfielder Ibrahima Ba (19-2-2) ,veteran striker Nassim Akrour (24-2-1) EDIT I also just saw that another defensive midfielder in Florian Tardieu (19-1-2) is also not named in the squad. They have lost 5 from 8 without Tardieu and the situation is compounded with Ba also out and Akrour offers plenty both on and off the pitch.
Obviously they do not have to worry about the quick turnaround today, but the match was only called off early afternoon and they would have prepared for it and perhaps not playing, is therefore even more of a disruption to schedule. They remain without Akrour, Ba and Tardieu, who are all big losses and leave the backline lacking protection.
Clermont reported a lot of problems this week, but left back Emmanuel Imorou (21-0-0), key striker Mana Dembele (28-11-1), centre back Romain Saiss (22-0-3) and right back Marvin Esor (18-0-1) have all travelled and look set to start, which is a massive boost, in an absolutely vital game. The visitors have won just once in 12 starts, with the win coming, as is the way of these things, at highflying Angers. There were six draws in that sequence and in general, they have played much better on the road this season, with 18 of their 29 points coming away from home. They will also arrive with positive memories of playing in this stadium, having not lost in five visits, which included an extra time League Cup win earlier in the season. Not much has gone their way recently, they had a very important game last week, but lost Esor ( see above) early in the contest and conceded twice late, when going for the win. Ironically, that was the first time in eight starts that they had scored more than a single goal, so maybe they can take heart from that and that things went their way, in terms of players of available ahead of this game. Also, dropping into the bottom three for the first time since Week 10, might serve as a wake up call, just as it did then, with Clermont winning 2-0 at Arles. 1.5 units Clermont +0.25 ball 1.91 asian line/ Ibramarket.
Istres : Petric, Daoudou - Chafik, Chelle, Barillon, Sainati, Bru, Tarasconi, Melliti, Genest, Nimani, Niangbo, Moulin, Massengo, Yahia-Chrif, Zoubir.
Clermont : Farnolle, Hantz - Avinel, Bockhorni, Esor, Imorou, Perrinelle, Capelle, Ekobo, Bayod, Moreira, Saïss, Salibur, Vidémont, Armand, Bettiol, Dembélé.
Arles- Sedan
Despite a 4-2 win at Clermont last week, Arles remain firmly entrenched in the relegation scrap and just two points above the drop zone. Sedan are off the bottom having won two of their last three , but remain seven points from safety, a draw is not going to do much for their survival push and they are going to have to gamble for maximum points in every game. Win tonight and they will "only" be six points behind Arles and that will hugely increase their options. The team spirit remains good and the players always look upbeat whenever I see them play. They arrive still without striker Abdoulay Diaby (22-7-2) and centre back Habib Bellaid (20-0-0), who were both forced off at half time last week, which made the win over Le Mans all the more noteworthy, defensive midfielder Damien Marcq (16-0-0) makes a long awaited return, which is some compensation and left winger Yoann Court (21-0-2) also returns from suspension.
Arles are buoyant after winning their last two for new coach Franck Dumas scoring six goals in the process, after drawing blanks in his first two matches in charge, they are without striker David Suarez (16-3-0), left winger Chaouki Ben Saada (13-0-2) and central defender Chaher Zarour (13-0-0), plus several fringe players, but none of the trio named have played for some time and can no longer be viewed as overly important. No clean sheet in seven starts for Arles and I doubt they will manage one this evening. Hosts could win this easily, they are confident and if taking the lead, Sedan will really open up and some big gaps, in a team which has already conceded 40 goals this season, will appear. Both to score, but I will take the "over" option 1.25 units "over" 2.25 goals 2.13 asian line/ Ibramarket.
Arles-Avignon : Butelle, Yattara - Cantini, Marester, Quintin, Soro, N'Diaye, Abdelhamid, Plessis, Rocchi, Cardy, Savanier, Delclos, Sangaré, Cacéres, Tinhan, Dalé.
Sedan : Perraud, Lembet - Boli, Dielna, Pinteaux, Pogba, Aït Ben Idir, Bijimine, Court, Kouamatien, Le Bihan, Marcq, Sliti, Tchenkoua, Bongongui, Ma.Diallo.
Good Luck.
Thursday February 14th
Europa League:
The last ten runnings of the Europa League/ UEFA Cup have seen seven winners from the Iberian Peninsula, five Spanish winners and two Portugese, they also supplied four losing finalists between them and all four semi finalists last year, the other three winners came from Eastern Europe, with two Russian winners and one from the Ukraine.
The Eastern teams are at a disadvantage early, coming off their winter break, but once we are in mid/late March, the pendulum swings the other way and they are fresher and at their peak, when others are beginning to tire.
This says as much about how these countries view the competition than anything else, they always show it respect and want to do well. Italian teams have a terrible record and since it was renamed the Europa League, only one has got past the Round of 32 and they lost in the Round of 16.
There are three Serie A teams left in the competition, Lazio, Napoli and Inter, but all have other major objectives for the season and I would offer a word of caution about all of them, not to say that they cannot win/ progress, just that I doubt that they are overly bothered.
The final is in Amsterdam this year and we can expect Ajax to be very motivated, but they might well have to see off Chelsea in the round of 16..
Atletico Madrid and Levante are the only two Spanish teams remaining and are drawn to face each other in the Round of 16, Atletico are looking to win for the third time in four years and given their league position, 12 points behind Barcelona and 11 clear of the fourth placed team, they already look assured of a Champions League spot for next season and I see no reason why they will not again be fully focused and this looks a decent draw for them, they have to be favourites IMO and 8.0 is a perfectly fair price, although a little skinny for my liking in a 32 runner race.
Despite facing a difficult tie with Bayer Leverkusen and going toe to toe with Porto for the domestic title, Benfica keep catching my eye at 29.0 in the outright market, they would play either Dynamo Kiev or Bordeaux next and I would favour them to beat either. They are unbeaten domestically, 14-4-0 and were a little hard done by in the Champions League. They look committed to this and all the big guns have travelled and they do have some very impressive weapons ....
Benfica: Artur Moraes, Paulo Lopes ,Bruno Varela, Melgarejo, Maxi Pereira, Luisinho, Luisão, Garay, Roderick Miranda , Jardel , André Almeida, Ola John, Enzo Perez, Salvio, Matic, Nicolás Gaitán, Urreta , André Gomes, Rodrigo, Lima, Cardozo.
They can field a starting eleven full of internationals and have a very nice mixture of experience and exciting young talent. Garay, Perez and Gaitan were all in the Argentine squad for the recent friendly in Stockholm, Salvio was in the squad for the previous international and is the youngest of the quartet. They have the class to go deep in this if they wish and the squad they have taken to Germany looks a statement of intent.
Leverkusen host Augsburg on Saturday afternoon, what is it with the Bundesliga ? Give them an extra day for goodness sake ! They are going to make some rotation between the two games of course, boss Sami Hyypiä admitted that and also that "a couple of our players have slight problems", refusing to give fiurther details. Almost four thousand visiting supporters have tickets for the game, which will make for a very good atmosphere, if pushed, I like the visitors with the handicap start, but must admit that +0.25 ball at sub 2.0 is not my favourite quote and if we are taking the outright anyway, I am happy to stick with that. 1 unit Benfica to win Europa League outright 26.0 + , there is bigger in a place or two.
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