HOW EVERYTHING WORKS ....

I have been writing a sports betting blog  GAMBLING AND OTHER WHOLESOME INTERESTS,  since April 2006.

 I also run a daily email service, this is a subscription based pay service and subscribers receive my full daily notes each day, usually at 10.00 UK time, at very busy times ( most Sunday's for example) there are two emails per day. These are written in newsletter format and usually include a brief look back at the events of the previous day and full preview of all sporting events taking place that day, or in the future, which interest me.

The average email runs to between 1200-2000 words, with most events discussed given reasonably comprehensive coverage. IMO the content is worth more than the actual tip/ selection. Most of my readers are fairly experienced punters ( not all), some are full time professional players and need this information to make a considered call on whether to bet the selection or not. Every event previewed carries either a black type suggestion, or red type official selection, I would not expect readers/ subscribers to bet everything, but some do and long term they will make a profit, but there is far more about the service than simply the bottom line and by reading the full preview, readers will get far more from the emails.

This is why I do not usually give out stats for the red type bets, as IMO this devalues the content/ back type picks, all of which have great value in my opinion.... I am writing them for a reason ! About 10% of these previews are reproduced on the blog, the other 90%+ are only ever available to subscribers and not published elsewhere.

I can explain the previews in a little more detail..... Red type picks are selections I will definitely be backing myself, the black type have something if not exactly "wrong" with them, maybe something which requires a little thought or consideration. This could be that the odds have fallen below what I want to take, my minimum quote, it might be that at the time of writing some teams news was still unclear, it could be that I have already given a red type selection for the game, all of these reasons are usually made clear.

For example, on June 13 for the Portugal - Denmark game my suggestion, where I was very keen on Portugal read .....However, we are not going to get very fat on 1.85-1.9 for the win, so I will leave it in black type, if the line shifts later in the day, or you find 2.0 + early in the match and both should be reasonably cautious through the opening exchanges, then take it ( I would make that a 1.25 unit bet @ 2.0+).

Portugal traded at 2.06 after nine minutes and won 3-2.

Another example was this match LINK , this was a game where if you read the preview it was obvious that I was about as keen on the match as possible from a betting perspective, but I gave two red type bets on the game and did not want to put up five, so the three others were put up as suggestions, for subscribers to make up their own mind. The two main bets won at 2.84 and 2.92 and two of the black types also won at odds of 5.0 and 10.0, the correct score of 6-2 @ 125-1 just missed, as Real won 5-2 and had a clear chance late in the game for the sixth ! That game is an extreme example, it is rare for me to ever put up even one extra suggestion in a game, let alone two or three, but it gives you an idea of how things work and also, subscribers were well aware of exactly how keen I was on that match.

Any red type selections are also given a ranking of between 0.25 and 2.0 units, one unit is standard, so I do not usually mention a stake for these, just give the pick, sub one unit is rare, so most picks are between 1-1.5 units, two units is my maximum and since the turn of the year, whilst still only two units, these have been given a higher ranking ( if that makes sense). There have been far fewer of them and subscribers have been told that the difference between a 1.5  and 2 unit pick is FAR greater than even between a 0.5 and 1.5 unit selection and should be backed as such. The maximum bets have all the boxes ticked and whilst they are not "bankers", which is a term you will never hear me use, they fulfill all my criteria, including the most important of all and that is offering fantastic value. There have been just three of these in 2012 and all have won at odds of 2.29, 2.20 and 2.00.

I am loathe to give stats for the email service for the reasons given above and also as they are not proofed anywhere, but over the last 15 weeks I have previewed  over 300 events and put up 270 red type selections, stakes were  a total of 327 units and returns 424.44 units, a ROI of 129.80 % and a profit of 97.44  units, a 50 euro unit flat stake would have won 4,872 euros . I have also put up "suggestions" in this sequence that have won at odds of 28-1 LINK  25-1 LINK , 9-1 LINK, 8-1 and many others, none of which are included in the profits shown above.

You can view six years of stats on the blog here LINK and on that page there are further links to more detailed country by county and sport by sport breakdowns, back in the day, most of my picks were on the blog, now just a very small sample.

THUSDAY JULY 26th

THURSDAY JULY 26th

I am an early bird today. Next email will be at the standard time of 10.00 on Friday and will include Irish Premier, French Ligue 2 ( although a cautious approach through the first week or two) and Olympic Football.

The weekend will look like this....

SATURDAY : Two emails

The first at 09.00 UK time will include the morning J-League action and Olympic news.

The follow up at 11.00 will cover the overnight games from the MLS.

SUNDAY : Two emails

The first at 09.00 will look at Olympic Football and a full round of Brazilian games.

The second at 11.00 will cover the final round of the USPGA Tour event and the remaining football action.

Last week I wrote the following ....

I think the most important news today is that Ramadan starts, so Muslims will be refraining from eating and drinking from dawn until sunset for the next 30 days. In the UK, that is pretty much 05.00 until 21.00 at this time of year

and is tough for anyone, let alone a sportsman or woman.

I touched upon this last year, Demba Ba of Newcastle United was especially affected through the early part of the season and none of his 16 goals came before September 24th. The Magpies might struggle early this season with Papiss Cisse, Hatem Ben Arfa and Cheick Tiote also, all being practicing Muslims.

Sportsmen and especially footballers are creatures of habit used to eating at set times before training and playing, we have talked previously about how any disruption to this schedule can have an effect on performance and this is major, they also take on huge amounts of fluids and are not even allowed to drink water during Ramadan.

I feel a little bad about using someone's religious beliefs to our advantage, but it is what it is and I think that we can especially use this information to give us an edge at the Olympics and through the early weeks of the domestic football season(s).

Today, this fasting should have some bearing on the Men's Olympic Football games, how much, is open to debate.

Let's start with the GB- Senegal fixture. Around 94% of the Senegalese population are Muslim, so we can assume that almost all of their squad are, I know for a fact that two of the original three over age players are ,Mohamed Diame and Dame N'Doye, the latter said recently  “I manage Ramadan like any other (day), I eat from 10pm until 2am, and the rest of the time I don’t. It’s just a question of organising your day, and I’ve been doing it as long as I can remember, so it is not a problem for me.”  I think it is a little harder this year for the players as the religious observance has fallen at a time when most are also doing pre season training, which is very physically draining. Also, the days are long in July and as N'Doye says, his window for eating and taking on fluids is very small, just four hours and at a time when most professional sportsmen should be sleeping, especially before a match, then the food has to be digested. It is a massive disruption to a footballers schedule and must have an impact and this year, because of the timing of Ramadan, during pre season and very long days, the effect should be greater. Also, the 20.00 kick off time of this fixture has done the fasting players few favours as they will not have eaten, or taken on fluids for 20 hours ! 

N'Doye has had to withdraw from the squad, which robs them of their most (only) experienced striker and came very late in the day. GB are favoured by playing at Old Trafford, the home stadium for Giggs and Cleverley and the city where Richards lives and plays and several others have earned their livings, the match is a sell out and this is a huge opportunity for Team GB to really kick start the whole Olympics. Coach Stuart Pearce made an error in the recent friendly against Brazil, where they were outclassed, setting up his defence to handle the threat of one guy was wrong, he will surely have learned from that and has had five training sessions since then to sort things out at the back. GB improved as the game wore on against Brazil, who admittedly stepped down a pace, but the British squad had just a couple of weeks together before that game and should strip fitter and better in sync this evening. They should win, but -0.75 ball 1.95 is a little on the skinny side, if it is possible to find another "ten clicks" to that quote, either pre match or early in running, I will probably get involved, as all the advantages seem to be with the hosts.

It is a similar story with the UAE-Uruguay match which is the curtain raiser at Old Trafford. The Uruguay frontline in particular with Luis Suarez, Edinson Cavani and Abel Hernandez has a real touch of class and they have already scored seven goals between them in two warm up matches this month. Not sure what sort of reception the Liverpool player Suarez will get at OT, probably not good ( terrible ?), but he is the kind to feed off that. The trio of strikers already have 42 goals for the full national team between them and even Hulk, Pato and Neymar for Brazil don't come close to half that tally between them. That gives you some idea of the quality that their Muslim opponents ,who are appearing at the Olympics for the first time have to face, however, defensively, Uruguay looked very vunerable against Chile recently and they appear short enough, asked to give up 1.75 goals on the asian line. Having said that many/ most/all of the UAE team will not have eaten for approaching 20 hours by the end of this game and could tire badly against a clearly potent attacking force.  The UAE had an impressive qualifying campaign going unbeaten through ten matches and winning through a group containing Australia ( who had qualified for the previous six Olympics), Iraq and Uzbekistan.

Last of the matches to discuss is Honduras- Morocco. Morocco have made it to the Olympic's on six occasions but their record of 3-3-14 is very poor, they quaified for the tournament by finishing runner up in the CAF U-23 Championship, but were perhaps lucky to do so, as the event was originally scheduled for Egypt, but moved to Morocco over security issues. Honduras has little previous history, two appearances and one win, they battled trough a tough CONCACAF qualifying competition, beating El Salvador who had put out the USA (who were hosting the competition) in a group decider, in the semis and then taking Mexico into extra time in the final. They have one UK based player Maynor Figueroa of Wigan Athletic, who is famous as being the only professional footballer in the world without ten toes ! Actually he only has eight !

There is quite a bit of full national team experience in this squad, especially through the three overage players Figueroa, Bengtson and Espinoza, but well over half have made a handul of appearances. The squad have already been in Europe for several weeks and won all three warm up games, beating Gabon, UAE and Egypt, the last of these in France was said to have been a particularly impressive performance, against what is a similar opponent to the one they will face today. They were very well organised and extremely comfortable on the ball, controlling the tempo of the game from the outset, a french newspaper ( the match was played in Amiens )said that they were "utterly dominant" and should have won by far more than the 1-0 scoreline, being denied by the woodwork and some wasteful finishing. The Egyptians are young but experienced at this level and have played a huge number of matches this year, probably the most of any U23 team, so this was an impressive showing for the Hondurans and taking into account that and the Ramadan effect on the Moroccan players, although the early ( 12.00) kick off time negates that a little, I cannot really understand why Morocco have been made such big favourites. 1.25 units Honduras +0.25 ball 1.97 looks the way to go.

I am sorry, but the Europa League matches do nothing for me at this stage of the season and I am happy to let them pass.

BRAZIL: SERIE A

Atletico Mineiro won’t be able to call upon defensive midfielder Leandro Donizete and they have a 100% record in the six matches he has started this season. Otherwise they are pretty much at full strength,

As we have discussed a couple of times recently, Santos are struggling for numbers and are low on offensive quality at the moment. I wrote about them on saturday  we opposed Santos in midweek, taking Botafogo with the handicap start , I wrote .....Hosts are without star player Neymar, Paulo Henrique Ganso  and Rafael , all on Olympic duty, Juan is suspended, Bernardo, Fucile, Leo, Edu Dracena and Galhardo are all injured. So, they are missing five starters including three defensive players and keeper from an already suspect backline, plus a couple of likely replacements and their two big names in Neymar and Ganso.  Santos held out for a 0-0 draw, which was pretty good under the circumstances, they will have Juan back from suspension, but that shaky backline will again be missing several players and the big three are going to be in London for several weeks yet. It will definitely not be so easy for Santos to hold out on the road, especially at strong home side Vasco da Gama, who have won four of their five home starts and who could go top of Serie A with three points this evening.

They lost 2-0 at Vasco and now face another very difficult away start to the league leaders, the big 3 are still at the Olympics of course,  the defence is without three players again including the suspended Durval ( 21 Serie ! and Copa starts) and Edu Dracena ( 18 starts). No goals in three starts for the visitors and it is hard to see that improving, with much of their offensive talent in London. Hosts have won six in a row and scored 13 in their last four, average league position of those six when they played AM was 9th, which makes the sequence even more impressive.Ronaldinho has made a big contribution to each of those wins, with three goals and four assists, after a very slow start to his season and he and his team mates will surely fancy this against a Santos side low on confidence and missing both starting central defenders.They collected just a single point from the three league games both missed this season and that came against 19th placed Bahia. However, it will be hard for us to get too fat on the odds offered about the hosts ( -1 ball 1.82), having said that the visitors make no appeal at present. I would like to say that it might be an option to wait a while and back the hosts "in running", but Santos have conceded an awful lot of early goals ( over 26% of their total allowed) in the first 15 minutes, more than in any other 15 minute period in their game(s), which is very odd, average time for a first goal scored in Brazilian football is 32nd minutes, so these stats are way out of line .

Good Luck.

WEDNESDAY JULY 25th

WEDNESDAY JULY 25th

The week really starts today and we have plenty to interest us in the coming days. I will send a full schedule/agenda with Thursday's email.
BRAZIL SERIE A:

GREMIO - FLUMINENESE

We discussed Fluminense on Sunday.....

PONTE PRETA - FLUMINENSE

Hosts must be pleased with their first season back in the top flight after five years in B, they are secure in midtable at present with a very decent 3-1-1 home record, however, if we look a little more closely at those wins, they have beaten two of the bottom five and one was more interested in the cup at that time and Corinthians, who sent their reserves, due to Copa Libertadores commitments. Today they will be without suspended Tiago Alves in central defence and it is worth noting that the only match he has missed previously this season, was their only home defeat, fellow centreback Wesley remains out with a long term injury.

Fluminense are unbeaten this season with a 6-4-0 record and currently sit in third place, the top two both won last night and opened at a gap at the head of affairs so the visitors will be very motivated to claim the three points tonight to stay in touch, especially ahead of a tough trip to fourth placed Gremio ( who have already won four at home) in midweek. Flu have scored in all five road games and have the meanest defence in Brazil. Upfront, Fred has been in stunning form, with five goals and four assists from just five starts and he had a hand in all four goals in the 4-0 win over Bahia in midweek and he has developed a very productive partnership and understanding with evergreen Deco, who has a goal and five assists in six starts. Their only absentees are defensive midfielders Diguinho and Edwin Valencia, neither has played much at all domestically this season, just 50 minutes for Valencia, so hard to see them as big losses any more and Diguinho is said to be close to a return in any case.  Fluminense should not go home empty handed and they are my pick. 1.25 units Fluminense -0.25 ball 2.02 asian line.

Flu won that 2-1, the hosts said they were hard done by, but I felt it was a fair result overall. The visitors remain unbeaten in the league with a 7-4-0 record, but the games are now coming thick and fast and Grenmio are a strong home team ( 4-0-1) and have conceded only twice here in Porto Alegre, Flu have only conceded four on the road in six outings, but with some tired legs on the field tonight and this the fourth start inside ten days for both, we might see a few errors and goals this evening.

At around the the same time Flu were winning, Gremio were beating Botafogo on the road 1-0, that was a nice win and achieved without striker Kleber who was suspended, he has been increasingly influential this season and had a goal and two assists in the previous two matches, in which ,Gremio scored three goals in both, he returns to the squad tonight. However, they will be without right sided defender Tony tonight and left backs Fabio Aurelio and Julio Cesar remain out with long term injuries, which leaves then short of experience and options wide defensively.

The visitors will be without the suspended Jean , he is a defensive midfielder like Diguinho and Edwin Valencia ( see above) and Flu conceded almost as soon as he left the pitch on Sunday, they are getting a little short of options in this area now and with left back Carlinhos also suspended, that is two key defensive players out for Fluminense. Jean has played in all 11 league games, only missing out on 43 minutes of play, Carlinos in 19 league and Copa games, so big losses IMO. However, at the other end of the pitch , once again Fred was a big player at the weekend, that's six goals and four assists for him in six starts and Flu have now scored in all six road games.

Some info for any of you looking to play this one "in running" Gremio have scored 53% and conceded 58% of their goals in the last 30 minutes and top scorer Marcelo Moreno's five goals have all come after the 27th minute. There have been nine goals in Flu's last three starts, eight came in the second half ( the other in first half injury time) , six after the 67th minute.

Last eight h2h meetings here have averaged exactly 4.0 goals, all two or more, with six "over". I will take a little on the "over" 2.5 goal line @ 2.04, just one unit for now, but I might push this bet a little in running, maybe at the break, if it looks open but the goals have not come, or maybe only one, as given the stats and schedule these have had, it should get increasingly stretched.

ELSEWHERE IN BRAZIL:

The big news is that Figueirense have a new coach ..... Argel Fucks ! I will say no more, apart from it would not be possible to coach in England with that surname, your life would be made a misery ! His side are really struggling, they are without a win in ten + starts, they have not kept a cleansheet in seven and have conceded 13 in their last five. Tonight they host Internacional (who scored four at the weekend )and have to do so without suspended centreback Fred ( a different one !), he has started the last four games. However, they might have veteran striker Sebastian Abreu back tonight, they have a good record in this fixture and we also have the new coach effect to consider.

Coritiba are very poor on the road, just two points, so I guess I saw the best of them in a 2-2 draw at Santos recently, they probably should have lost that, but showed plenty of attacking intent and were very dangerous on the break. They twice came from behind that night and fought back from two down to claim a share of the spoils at Bahia over the weekend, those are their two road points, at least we know they will battle if falling behind. I do feel they were distracted by they run to the final of the Copa do Brasil and admit to being a little interested in them tonight, they have three players back from suspension which means that they can field their first choice central defensive partnership of Emerson and Fabio Pereira, Coritibia have avoided defeat in three of the four games the pair have played together this season.

Nautico Recife have a decent home record, but their need is not as great as the visitors, who sit just outside the bottom and who face three of the top 4 in their next three starts and then face Copa champions Corinthians, so this is as  easy as it is going to get for them for a while. Plus point is that Coritiba do have goals in them, scoring in their last ten league games ( 17 in total), two or more in six of those. If the centre backs can steady them at the rear, they should be capable of getting a point or more here  +0.25 ball ( circa 2.0) on the asian markets would be my pick, they are not a team to trust completely,but I one I expect to improve a little, I also saw 2.625 for them to score two or more around which was also tempting.

Corinthians have sold Alex to Al-Gharafa, Douglas is/was his natural replacement and thrived over the last two games, scoring three of Corinthians four goals, however, he is suspended today. The problem is that none of the strikers have been scoring, only youngster Romarinho has managed more than one and he is more of a B team player at present, albeit a promising one. Goals might be a problem for the hosts today.

Cruzeiro are without holding midfielder Charles, they have lost only one match this season when he has played an hour or more ( seven matches), also out is central defender Leo, but they did keep a cleansheet without him on Sunday.

This is traditionally a low scoring game, seven of the last nine meetings have produced one goal or less, the visitors arrive on the back of two cleansheets and hosts are missing some offensive threat. The two missing players are enough to put me off Cruzeiro with the handicap start which was going to be my pick, hard to see either scoring twice in this one, under 2.25 goals at 2.05 looks solid if you twisted my arm for a pick. Also, given that Corinthians have scored just two first half home goals in six starts and Cruzeiro just one first half road goal in five, there must be a good chance you can trade out for a profit with this bet.

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE :

I have some VERY solid news about one of the teams playing Champions League football this midweek, but am going to sit on my hands and save it for the third leg tie next week , as they are going to be a much bigger price then and if the odds are as expected, that will be just our fourth maximum bet of 2012.

From a betting perspective, tonight's matches hold little interest, I understand that BATE are going through a tough time at present, they needed two injury time goals to turn the first leg around and take an advantage of any sort to Macedonia for the return leg with FK Vardar in Skopje. The visitors are far more experienced at this level and have twice made it through to the group stage, last season and in 2008-09, when they were a pretty good team. They have certainly regressed a little since then and by their normal standards are in freefall ! They lead their domestic league by three points with a game in hand, but their lead is normally double figures and they have collected just two points from their last three league starts. They will sorely miss midfielders Renan Bressan ( 15 starts-4 goals- 3 assists) and Dmitri Baga ( 15-5-4), plus defender Denis Polyakov ( 13 starts), all of whom are in action at the Olympics and word is that Vardar and their supporters are really up for this one. The match is a 33,000 sell out, the atmosphere will be white hot and odds look on the skinny side for the visitors, who do not need to win, but I know very little about the home side ( I did try to get hold of some highlights)  , so will have to pass. However, if this is a match you are interested in Bate do have their own YouTube channel and you can see a lot of highlights of recent games on there and yes, they are struggling atm !  LINK

WOMEN'S OLYMPIC FOOTBALL:

USA - FRANCE

Both these two will qualify from Group G and each has been in tremendous form this year, we spoke about the US yesterday ( reproduced below) and the French are a perfect 10-0-0 in 2012, with seven straight clean sheets, albeit with six of those on home soil. That indicates a very strong backline, but I have my doubts and feel they have a big weakness defending crosses into the box, with no real established partner for Laura Georges. They are short of top quality defenders and effectively play a midfielder, albeit a very talented one, on the left of the backline. Going forward they are very good and in Louisa Necib have a world class playmaker, who will be providing the bullets for a quartet of prolific strikers in Marie-Laure Delie, Eugenie Le Sommer, Gaetane Thiney and Elodie Thomis. They might have some joy against the US backline which lacks pace through the centre.

However, as good as the French might be offensively, they are not in the same league as the americans, Abby Wambach, Alex Morgan, Lauren Cheney, Amy Rodriguez and Sydney LeRoux offer an almost undefendable threat, with pace, talent and in the prolific veteran Wambach, size. She is going to be a massive threat in the air against France and I think that will be the difference, not just via her, but through crosses generally. In the 2011 World Cup semi-final ,which the US won 3-1in Moenchengladbach just over 12 months ago, two of US goals came from crosses and the physically imposing Wambach could easily have had a hat-trick. Shannon Boxx, Heather O'Reilly and the lightning quick Amy Rodriguez can all deliver quality into the box and the US will surely be looking to milk this. In that last meeting, France did have a lot of attempts on goal, but almost all were long range efforts and there was a little luck about their goal. The US match up well against the French, but they are the two big players in the group and a win is not essential, having said tha,t two of the three third placed teams will qualify for the quarter finals and so the pressure is not quite so great as we normally see in major championships and both should play their natural game. One unit USA -0.75 ball 2.16+ asian line.


Good Luck

OLYMPICS : WOMEN'S FOOTBALL OUTRIGHT ( written 24/07)

Japan were surprise winners at last year's World Cup and have a decent draw here, but I strongly favour the US team to get revenge and claim a third straight Olympic crown. I like the mix of the American squad and they will be out for revenge, not sure how they failed to beat the Japanese in that final in Frankfurt, having had 27 attempts on goal, but I just do not see it happening again. They are 13-1-1 this year, the two games they failed to win were both against Japan, but they put all that right in Sweden last month beating the World Champions 4-1, with 19 attempts on goal , 11 on target. They have also seen off Brazil ( restricting the Marta less Samba girls to just one attempt on target) 3-0, Sweden twice by a combined goal difference of 7-1 and China 4-1, all in the last four months.

The US squad is hugely experienced, seven of the squad have over 100 caps and four well over 160 ! For at least four of the senior players this is going to be their swansong, a chance to finish on a high in their final major championship and a trio of gold medals is the perfect way to sign off. For them, that loss in Germany to Japan really hurt, the run to the final and especially that very brave win over Brazil where they came back from the dead with ten women, captured the public's imagination and they were being watched by the biggest audience in women's football history and it was the perfect opportunity to put their sport on the map, but at the end of the day, in the US, they only remember winners.

Amongst the rest of the squad are the next generation of players, hungry to emulate their team mates, players they have grown up idolising. What is key is that all of this squad want the Olympic experience, but they are stuck up in Scotland and the only way they are going to get down to London and the Olympic Village is to make the semis and more likely given their draw, the final. They also have perhaps a bigger agenda in terms of football in the US, this year saw the Women's Professional Soccer League fold in May due to a legal dispute, leaving many of the players without a club ( over half the squad), many others moved to semi-professional soccer, but the loss of the professional league was huge. The squad believe that out of potential US Olympic glory, a new professional women's soccer league will be reformed and that is a further massive incentive. Bonus out of all this turmoil is that it has given the squad a long time to recover from the rigors of this and last season and a massive amount of time together to gel and thrive, we saw the benefits of this from Zambia ( who had been together for months) at the ACN earlier in the year and with the US performances in Sweden last month.

In the game there against Japan, the USA controlled the tempo of the match with some fanatstic pressing and ball possession of the year, not something we always associate with them. The Japanese were forced into a lot of errors and the margin of victory could have been far greater, it was a terrific performance against an opponent who had troubled them previously and a sign that despite the age of some of the squad, they are still learning and improving. I have a little more to say about them, but will save those comments for the games ahead, especially the match up against the talented French team. I made the USA a maximum 2.50 to win gold and have to put them up as a confident 1.75 unit selection to win outright @ 3.0 + this is available pretty much across the board, there is a little 3.25 in a place or two.

Good Luck.

INTRODUCTION .....

Below you will find a complete recent week's emails.


If you start at the bottom of the page and work up, you will see the continuity and I try to write every day's notes as though the reader is seeing them for the first time, so there is frequently reproduction of earlier relevant posts/ previews.

SUNDAY JULY 8th #2

USPGA TOUR:GREENBRIER CLASSIC

Webb Simpson leads the way by two strokes, of course he does !

Having suggested him to lead after day 1 @ 22-1, he leads after day 2 and 3 instead !

I would like to oppose Simpson, he has blown leads before and despite having a favourite's chance, he is not a player I would want to take low odds about, but his quote on the exchanges is very close to what I made him personally, so I will have to leave that alone.

There are 21 players within six strokes of the lead, but not a huge amount of quality there, maybe just 4-5 proven winners and I am going to take a tiny, tiny investment on one of those at very big odds.

Carl Pettersson is a five time winner on tour and took the last of those earlier this year at the RKC Heritage, a little early in the year for him as three of his first four wins came in high summer and none previously before June, so he should be peaking now. Before that win he had posted two missed cuts and then went 2nd ,1st in consecutive weeks, coming into this event he had also had two missed cuts and had also only played two days before posting previous wins. So, he can find form very quickly and probably is incentivised and maybe even refreshed, after not playing the previous weekend.

He has played the back nine in -6 over the last two days and not dropped a stroke over those 18 holes, last year he finished strongly here on Sunday shooring -4 for the backline with five birdies in total. He is ranked 13th on tour this year and 9th last for R4 scoring and although six strokes behind  Simpson, he is only four off second and three behind those tied for third.

It is a very tough ask for him to win of course, but that is why we get a brave man's price ... 66-1 ! Just a little interest 0.25 units each way @ 67.0 1/5th odds 123 with Sky, Victor, Paddy, Ladbrokes , Hills. Alternative is a 0.5 unit win bet at 95.0/100.0 on the exchanges and look to trade out at some stage.  At a pinch, 50-1 + is just about ok for the each way bet.

MLS :

I am now leaving the Chicago Fire - LA Galaxy match, after originally being very keen on Fire my ardour has been cooled slightly, but I cannot really explain why, but once I start to get that "feeling" I always pass on the action. It is definitely a changing of the guard at Galaxy, Landon Donovan looks on his way out and motivation might be a problem for him, Frank Lampard has been in LA and hanging out with David Beckham who is suspended tonight, you can add 2+2 and get a $20m two year contract for Frank. Only Keane of the "galiticos" available and several other players carrying knocks and that hugely disappointing loss against the Earthquakes last week has ended any real interest/dreams for this season.I prefer on form Fire who did us a favour in midweek, but as I say, something is stopping me from pulling the trigger.

I like Philadelphia Union ( 3 wins in five) , whom we have discussed a lot recently ( see below) to beat Toronto FC ( unbeaten in five), both teams have upped their game recently, but it is Union who have impressed me more and I really liked the road win at Galaxy in midweek, which came after a very tough game at Houston in the Texas heat. Toronto sampled some of that themselves on Wednesday when they went to Dallas and they might need a little longer to recover and a second straight road game is far from ideal.

The pair met in a reverse fixture about 6-7 weeks ago in Ontario, Union were a defensive shambles at the time, but were extremely unlucky to lose 1-0, they pretty much dominated the second half and were denied by the woodwork, before gifting TFC , who were hanging on at the time, a late winner, a goal which came from not one, but three defensive errors !

Union look a completely different team under John Hackworth and their personnel are far better suited to his 4-3-3 formation, now that they have found a goal touch and ironed out many of those defnsive problems, especially defending crosses, I take them to get revenge for that recent defeat . 1.5 units Philadelphia Union -0.5 ball 1.96 asian line.

Good Luck.

PHILADELPHIA UNION- SPORTING KANSAS CITY

We discussed Philly last week (see below) and I was very keen to oppose them against DC United and the visitors won 1-0 , but it was close and DC coach Ben Olsen said about Union  “They were good. give them a lot of credit. I thought their energy was good, I thought their soccer was better on the night. ... But at the end of the day it’s about winning games.”

Piotr Nowak was actually fired before the game, this lifted the mood and the players responded for interim coach John Hackworth, who said "If we play that way every week, we’re gonna win a lot of games. So, I’m disappointed but I take a lot of positives out of this game." He also answered a few other questions ....

Will you stick with this lineup?“I would. I need time to think about it. I’m very emotionally charged right now as you can imagine, but I’m going to look at the tape tomorrow. My initial thoughts are that they played the way the Union wants to play. The fans want that. The front office, our ownership, they want that kind of energy. And that was fantastic, so we’ll evaluate it, see how our guys are feeling…next Saturday here I expect you’ll see a lot of the same.

Why didn’t we see Gomez? Was it because he was away at WC qualifying?Partly. He got hurt in Dallas. He never fully recovered from that injury with the national team when he was with Panama. He got released yesterday afternoon; he didn’t play. He has not played a game since Dallas, which is quite a long break, so if the game had presented itself and there was an opportunity…but obviously when you get behind, and we had all the momentum, I didn’t think there was a way they would get down near us. I thought either we were going to give up a foul but they got it, and that was that.
 
What were your emotions like before the game?“What a great day all the way around. The fans were fantastic; the players were awesome beforehand. It was a great night for the Philadelphia Union in a lot of ways. And I was excited. I was confident, relaxed…At this point my job becomes managing the game. We prepared…the players need to know what they’re doing and I thought they did, and they went and tried to do that, and so, it was all good."

This is about the most positive I have seen any side after a home defeat and it is clear that with Nowak has also gone a big weight off the team, forward Antoine Hoppenot was denied by the woodwork at a key stage and he said “It’s nice to see a positive offensive showing, we always knew we could do it.  We knew we had the skills and players to be a force on offense.  It doesn’t come to a surprise to us and a great show for the fans to see and hopefully next game we will score two or three.”

Plenty to take out of the game and the new coach has had a free midweek and seven days to fully focus on this game. Kansas were at home last week, went to Seattle in midweek and now all the way over to Philly, that is pretty gruelling, key players Matt Besler and Bobby Convey have been moved up to "Questionable", but a place on the bench is the most either can probably expect and they are likely to be given a little longer recovery time. Nagamura is also a doubt and options look limited in midfield. Think a draw is likely here, the only two h2h meetings have ended all square and that is a result which probably both could accept, but I will take 1.25 units Philadelphia +0.25 ball 1.88 asian line, as I smell an upset home win.

PHILADELPHIA UNION- DC UNITED

Hosts are up against it here, they have not won in five MLS starts and have conceded five in their last two home starts, against teams with arguably a lesser potent attack than United, who are the league's top scorers and out for a little revenge after Union beat them in a US Cup match just ten days ago ( 2-1 after extra time in Maryland). That was an ill tempered affair, which saw the red cards fly , Ben Olsen the DC coach rounded on his players after that, for what he described as an unacceptable performance. Olsen was probably the greatest player in the club's history and the current crop will be embarrassed that he was so angered by that showing. That have won their last three league starts and scored 20 goals in their last eight starts.They have defender Robbie Russell back tonight and should have their trio of strikers Chris Pontius, Maicon Santos and Dwayne De Rosario with 17 goals between them, all back in the line up. Three points will ensure they stay top of the Eastern Division.

This is a fixture that usually produces a lot of goals. With the last four MLS meetings all seeing at least four, but it is hard to see Union contributing too many this evening. For a start, they have been pretty toothless all season, scoring just eight and tonight they miss their suspended top scoring striker Lionard Pajoy. They have brought in Jorge Perlaza from Portland, but it cwas at the cost of another and perhaps more promising forward and the Colombian's strike rate of six goals in 44 starts is not going to strike fear into too many DC defenders. This is just the latest in some very strange decisions by Union coach Petr Nowak, who for some unknown reason got rid of Sebastien Le Toux, captain Danny Califf, and now Danny Mwanga, he is said to be looking to move overseas and obviously wants to sell the crown jewels before he goes ! The rats are leaving a sinking ship, two teams heading in different directions and the better one has a little revenge on it's mind. 1.5 units DC United level ball 1.98 asian line.

SUNDAY JULY 8th #1

SUNDAY JULY 8th

I was plased with the J-League previews yesterday, three goals in the Kashima game with Nagoya scoring two, Hiroshima won and Yokohama-Cerezo drew. Elsewhere, the Ladies final went "over" and in the MLS , Real Salt Lake landed the handicap bet and also scored those three goals and all in all it was a very good day.

Today, I have two strong bets in the MLS games ( although no max bet) and a huge priced selection for the final round of the USPGA event, still waiting for all of those golf odds to come out, so will include that in the follow up email at midday.

That doesn't leave much for this email, just the Wimbledon final between Roger Federer and Andy Murray.

Murray leads the h2h 9-7 with every single meeeting being on hardcourts, either indoor or out, surprisingly, six of the last seven have been won in straight sets. In the last ten, which go back over four years, Murray has served more aces in eight, they tied once and Federer served more, just one more, in that straight sets Aussie final win in 2010. Given those stats and the fact that even the casual tennis observer will have noticed a huge improvement in the British player's serve over the last 12 months and he looks a decent quote @ around 1.80 + to serve the most aces, very little liquidity at present but there is up to 1.86 for tiny money on the exchanges and a couple of companies also offer Murray with a handicap start in this market, which even at low odds, cannot be right. If you watched Federer destroying Youzhny in the quarters, you might be amazed to know that he lost the "ace race "  2-3 in that, despite serving fantastically well, losing only five game and winning 88% of points on his first serve !

This is time for Murray to step up and if he can come out strong and by that I do not even mean he has to win the first set, just be competitive, I think he will put in a big showing. In that Aussie final, Murray stepped up from his performance in their previous grand slam final two years earlier and should have taken it into a fourth set, he made errors both times he held set points in that tie break.

The Brit's second serve is hugely improved, Federer is no longer as good a volleyer ( not much practice ?) and Murray will probably try and pull him into the net, physically Murray is much the stronger now and the longer this goes the better he will get. I think Murray will take at least two sets, so like the 2.80 on the exchanges for him to win outright, as firstly, I think it is too big anyway and secondly he seems sure to trade a lot lower at some stage, which will give opportunities to take  a profit.

Good Luck.

SATURDAY JULY 7th #2

MLS :

Overall, I  much prefer the Sunday MLS fixtures, when I definitely have two very strong bets and might well upgrade one of those to maximun bet status, depending on some team news, more of that in the early email tomorrow.

I was going to get involved in the FC Dallas - San Jose match up, I think that the Eartquakes are much better suited to playing three times in a week and you can forget their midweek loss to Portland, they were so focused on the Galaxay game last weekend, that there was always going to be a let down with such a quick turnaround. To be honest, I have been kicking myself ever since that game, that I didn't put up Timbers as a bet. Having said all that, the hosts do have a couple of key players coming back from long term injury and their need for  points is great, but the real reason to leave this one alone, are the still brutal conditions in Texas and even come the evening kick off, the temperature in Dallas will be 35 degrees + and feel even hotter. Even without the weather we might see a few players hot under the collar here, Dallas have an alarming disciplinary record this year and Earthquakes have a couple of players who get great enjoyment out of winding opponents up, so we are not sure to see 22 players on the pitch at the end. I can see a lot of ways San Jose win this and the quote is tempting, but the weather scares me, especially for a third game inside seven days, so I will pass.

REAL SALT LAKE- PORTLAND TIMBERS

TIme for RSL to get back to winning ways. I have been impressed by them at times this season, in particular a fairly recent 3-0 win at Chivas, that is the only game that their opponent has lost in ten starts and it came shortly after a couple of really solid performances from the hosts, whom you may recall, I had put up as a potential big improver ahead of their LAG derby game in late May. That was the only blip for Chivas since then , but to be honest, RSL could have won by five, they had a "good" goal disallowed with the score still 0-0 and it was 85 minutes before the hosts had an attempt on goal. Real have not won in four since then, they blew a 2-0 lead at home to Galaxy in the first and I think that really knocked their confidence. the next game they lost again to San Jose, a match they should have won easily, having 19 attempts on goal,including two headed off the line and two completely open goals missed.

They steadied the ship with a 0-0 draw with Seattle in midweek, when they introduced defender Kwame Watson-Siriboe and winger Kenny Mansally, again, they had chances enough to have won with ease and the goals are going to start to flow again shortly. They have a clean sheet to console themselves with and the overall performance was very solid. Sounders admitted they were outplayed and with the new additions , who will have had a little more training with the squad and they should have Tony Beltran back tonight, RSL are only going to get stronger. They are a whole host of post match interviews below and I have highlighted some of the more inportant comments in red type.

Portland are very poor travellers and although buoyed by the win over San Jose, they will have travelled Portland- Colorado-Portland- Salt Lake this week and whilst not huge distances by MLS standards it is still hour after hour in the air and transit and very little training ground prep for this match.I like the home win and the 3.25 for them to score three or more, as I think that when they get one this time, the others will flow, but will take 1.25 units Real salt Lake -1 ball 2.07 asian line. Real scored three in the reverse fixture back in March which they won by the odd goal in five, they had 17 attempts that day and were a little beat up and short of offensive options

going into the match.

Good Luck.

SATURDAY JULY 7th #1

SATURDAY JULY 7th

Federer caused the "upset", Murray won in four sets ,Derry City edged home, but Tiger Woods disappointed, he improved by two strokes from R1 but it was not enough to win his three ball, Webb Simpson, whom I suggested at a "fun" price of 22-1 to lead after day 1, of course leads after day 2 !!

Change of plan today, J-League and Wimbledon in this email , no Scandinavian match after all, but a follow up email in about 90 minutes with tonight's MLS fixtures, I got my dates wrong and thought all of the US fixtures were on Sunday this week !

WIMBLEDON : LADIES SINGLES FINAL: SERENA WILLIAMS - AGNIESZKA RADWANSKA

Serena leads the h2h 2-0 and has yet to lose more than four games in any set to her opponent so far, however, those meetings were both in 2008, when Radwanska was still a teenager and she has made her big breakthrough this season. I do think that Radwanska is a totally lost cause, she has the poise on court to hang in with Serena, which is what you need to do and makes so few unforced errors that Williams will have to win every point, she will not be gifted too many, but it is hard to see how even a fully fit Radwanska is going to overly hurt her opponent and having withdrawn from the doubles citing a respiratory illness yesterday, we cannot be sure that she is even that.

Having said that, it might be that the Polish camp are trying to take some of the pressure off their girl by releasing this news now, as she says her throat has been bad for several days, but not troubling her on court and plenty of players have withdrawn from doubles previously, when going deep in the singles event. Radwanska, when she gets into a rally with Williams, will be returning a lot of balls and aside from power has all the other shots in her game. She will probably look to mix things up ,return some balls down the middle to cut out the angles for Williams who can be prone to overhit these, use the drop shot quite a bit to try and bring the US player in and then use her hard to read backhand pass to win the point. She has a really well placed first serve and is prepared to volley behind it, we will not see many outright aces from her, but she will get a few cheap service points of her own. I still feel that Serena is way too short and would not be surprised to see a long battle today, not a match to get involved in now, but my pick would still have to be "over" 19 games 1.885 with Pinnacle . You are not going to overpower Serena at this Wimbledon, but we have already seen her have a problem with guile and Radwanska has that in spades, she just needs to keep Williams on court long enough for it to take effect, in second sets against Zheng, Shevdova, Azaranka and even to a lesser degree Kvitova, she has shown a real vunerability.

J-LEAGUE:

KASHIMA REYSOL - NAGOYA GRAMPUS

Hard not to see goals here and both making a contribution, hosts have scored in their last ten starts, 24 goals in total, Nagoya have scored in 9 from 10 J-League games, 16 in total and have scored six in their last three road games.
H2h record sees the last ten meetings averaging 3.1 goals and both have scored in eight of those.

Kashiwa Reysol defender Hiroki Sakai has now moved to Germany, no injury problems for them otherwise, hard to see how an already porous defence, no team outside the bottom five have conceded more, is going to be less so with the loss of such a key right sided defender.

The situation is unchanged at Nagoya, Keiji Tamada, Naoshi Nakamura and Ryota Isomura all remain out, but have been missing for some time, very experienced goalkeeper Seigo Narazaki had a small knee operation, but is still hopeful of playing, but his loss will not harm any bets on this game, which have to be of the goals variety.

Both teams look far happier on the front foot and will surely be looking for the three points that will keep them in the title hunt. The visitors will lose top scorer Kensuke Nagai (8 goals) to the Olympics after today and play the league leaders next week. I think they will be especially motivated today, they can score a couple and if the 2.30 for them to do so was freely available, that would be my pick. Instead I will have to opt for over 3 goals @ circa 1.95 on the asian market. 

SANFRECCE HIROSHIMA - JUBILO IWATA

Visistors stopped the rot with a win over FC Tokyo last week, but I have to feel that had more to do with their opponents form and it may just have papered over the cracks, Jubilo have conceded ten goals in their last four starts and will sorely miss Baek Sung Dong ( 2 goals - six assists) and as discussed last week, they have scored two or more goals in every match where he has played at least an hour. They will also be without keeper Naoki Hatta and his experienced back up, a long term injury still keeps striker Hidetaka Kanazono out.

Hosts are without defender Hwang Seok Ho who has gone off with the Korean Olympic team already, midfielder Satoru Yamagishi is a big doubt. Plenty of goals when these two play, they both sit in the top three and are two of the top three scorers also, but defensively, Jubilo look far more vunerable at present and when they lose on the road, it is normally with the concession of quite a few goals. I like Hiroshima to win this at around the even money mark and feel they might score a few, 3.50 + for them to score three or more appeals.

YOKOHAMA MARINOS- CEREZO OSAKAGoals remain a huge problem for Marinos, just two in their last five league starts, however, they have gone unbeaten over that sequence with four draws and a 1-0 win over a flagging FCTokyo, but as I said last week that can only carry on for so long and sooner or later, they need to start scoring more freely They will again miss injured captain Shunsuke Nakamura today, he has made a big contribution to their tiny goals scored column and it is very hard to see the hosts scoring more than a single goal.

Cerezo Osaka have sold midfielder Hiroshi Kiyotake ( 2 goals - 4 assists) to FC Nuremberg and his hugely influential partner Kim Bo Kyung ( 7 goals - 2 assists) has joined the Korean Olympic team . They are big losses, but things will get worse for them shortly as Yamaguchi and Ogihari will also be off to the Olympics after today, so sitting just one place, albeit five points outside the drop zone, they really need a result today and to retain that security buffer.

Hard to see either scoring twice and when that is the case, the draw is the obvious option and makes most appeal here at odds of circa 3.60.

Good Luck.

FRIDAY JULY 6th

FRIDAY JULY 6th

Agnieszka Radwanska beat Angelique Kerber in straight sets, Webb Simpson shot a first round 65 and beat Tiger Woods by six strokes and Steve Sticker finished two ahead of Jim Furyk, although unfortunately that one was not freely available. The day would have been perfect had Victoria Azarenka been able to find a way past Serena Williams, she fought hard and the US superstar showed signs of getting a little "tight" towards the end of the second set, but her massive/incredible serve got her out of trouble each time.

Today, I have brief notes about three events, the Greenbrier Classic, the Men's Semi- Finals at Wimbledon and one Irish match tonight.

The schedule for the weekend looks like this.....

SATURDAY: Email will be sent before 09.00UK time  and will contain notes on the late morning J-League games, the Women's Final from Wimbledon and a strong bet for one of the Scandinavian football matches.

SUNDAY : Email #1 @ 10.00 UK time Will look at the Men's Final, Round 4 of the Greenbrier Classic and probably an after football fixture.

Email #2 Will cover the MLS fixtures, where I have several strong ideas and am still considering upgraded one to maximum bet status, I will update that situationin the earlier notes. I will send this at midday.

GREENBRIER CLASSIC :

I am interested in the three ball containing Steve Stricker, Webb Simson and Tiger Woods, they shot repectively -1. -5 +1 yesterday and as you know I was happy to oppose Tiger, but want to side with him today.

His game was off yesterday, but there were reasons , the tough week last week for one and also because Tiger missed his regular Tuesday practice, that was cancelled due to bad weather. To be honest, Woods is a bit anal and for his very precise schedule to be thrown off like that is not ideal for him. The only chance he had to play, what for him is a completely new course, was Wednesday in the Pro-Am. Also the course was foggy yesterday and he claimed not to be able to see the opening holes. He said “I was a little bit off with my game, and on top of that I didn’t have the speed of these greens at all, my last three tournaments, the greens were awfully quick and they have a lot of swing at the end because of how fast they are. I missed literally every single putt high today.”

OK, so why do I like him today ? Well, he needs a good round to make the cut and Tiger doesn't really do missed cuts, usually one per year and he has already had his one for 2012, also, he will know the course so much better today and he almost always shoots better in R2 than R1, infact, he has a stuning Friday record on Tour, he didn't play enough to get ranked in two recent years, but those aside he has been ranked 3-1-1-1-2-1-3-3-3-1-1 in eleven of the other dozen years for Round 2 scoring. That, and he is back to believing he is the best golfer on the planet again and once he truly believes it, then he probably is. Tiger Woods to win the 18.20 UK time three ball 2.375 +, there is some 2.40/ 2.50 around and 2.40 + on the exchanges.

IRISH PREMIER LEAGUE : UCD - DERRY CITY

I was interested in City tonight, they have a really good record in this fixture, being unbetaen in eight visits, with five wins and also scoring two or more goals in the last five, they are coming off two heavy defeats, but had scored two or more in five of six starts before that. UCD have one cleansheet in ten and have conceded at least two in six of those.Hosts are without top scorer Graham Rusk, who has notched half their league goals this season and starting defender Mark Langtry and have a host of other knocks to contend with, including another key defender in David O'Connor.

This looked a really good opportunity for City to get back on track, but I watched a few highlights from the recent loss to Drogheda and they looked poor, infact, their coach described the performance as embarassing. To be fair they are short on numbers,  Kevin Deery, Mark Farren, Stewart Greacen and Brian McGroary are all out, which would be OK, but Gerard Doherty ( everpresent keeper) , Ruaidhrí Higgins ( key midfileder), Patrick McEleney ( defender 11 starst) and Rory Patterson ( striker 5 goals in 13 starts) are all doubtful !

I think Patterson is out for sure, as City signed striker Conor Murphy and a midfielder yesterday for the rest of the season, so at least they have acted quickly and the coach says he expects Higgins and McEleney to play. Officially, I have to pass, but I still think that this is City's to win, if Murphy ( he has already scored against UCD this season for his former club) , Higgins and McEleney make the line up, I will probably take a little on the away win, as I do not see where the UCD goals are going to come from, the only match they have won without Rusk scoring was against now defunct Monaghan.

WIMBLEDON :

ANDY MURRAY - JO-WILFRIED TSONGA

Huge pressure on Murray, who is looking to become the first British male in a million years to reach the Wimbledon final. He has a very solid record against Tsonga and the frenchman's big weapons do not work agaist Murray, who has won the last four meetings, two of which came on grass, here in 2010 and at Queens last year. In those four meetings Murray has had 35 break points and the big serving Tsonga just 15, this match is for Murray to lose, but he looks stronger mentally and really ought to make it through to the final, however, the odds are useless, how about JWT to win a tie break and Murray to see this out in four sets , which is 3.75 on the exchanges.

ROGER FEDERER - NOVAK DJOKOVIC

Federer leads the h2h 14-13, but Djokovic has taken the last four and seven of the last eight, three of those came in grand slam semis, all won by the Serbian and two came in straight set wins, the pendulum looks to have well and truly swung his way.But, they have never met on grass previously, which is odd and the Swiss master is 64-7 on the Wimbledon courts, if he is going to stop the hemorrhaging, it is as likely to be here as anywhere else. I suspect that he has played more centre court matches than anyone in recent history and has more experience with the roof on, which looks extremely likely today.

Despite that last straight sets loss at Roland Garros, Federer had chances and unlike the in the French, this time RF's backhand slice will stay low, low, low and fast. I think that shot will be key and give Federer a chance for the upset.
Circa 3.50 for the match to go to five sets seems a fair price to me, four of Federer's last matches at the Championships in the previous five years here have been decided that way.

Good Luck.

THURSDAY JULY 5th

THURSDAY JULY 5th

Ladies Singles semi-finals at Wimbledon today and the line up looks a lot like this....

Agnieszka Radwanska 9.20 - Angelique Kerber 6.50

Serena Williams 2.15 - Victoria Azarenka 3.75

Top available quotes are alongside each player. Most of us have a big interest in the outright markets, several of you a huge one !

Before the tournament started I sent the following preview ...

WIMBLEDON : LADIES SINGLES OUTRIGHT

I am going to ease myself into the Championships and just start with one outright bet.

The draw was made Friday and has set up a really interesting Ladies Singles. French Open champion Maria Sharapova has plenty of potential banana skins in her section, she will probably need to beat Pironkova and Lisicki just to make the quarter final and in the other half of "section 1, are Kerber, Makarova, Clijsters, Jankovic and Zvonareva. Masha was very focused on getting that Roland Garros win on her CV, the only "missing" grand slam and I doubt she is as well prepared for grass as in previous years, anyway, given that and the draw, she is WAAY too short in the betting for my liking.

Section 2 contains a lot of evenly matched players and about as dangerous a floater as you could have in five time champion Venus Williams, I did have a feeling that we might see a big run from Agnieszka Radwanska this year, she is a two time quarter finalist and was also a Junior Champion at Wimbledon and enters these championships with her highest ever world ranking of #3. She is a working man's price of 65.0-70.0 on the exchanges and could go deep but will have to hit the ground running with Venus a potential Round 2 opponent and Hantuchova and newly crowned Unicef Open champion Nadia Petrova also in waiting.

Serena Williams will probably be happy with her place at the top of Section 3 and she could play herself into form, she has a potential semi final with last year's winner Petra Kvitova and although both Williams sisters are a complete law unto themselves and I would never entirely write either of them off, they are staring to look their age ( sorry girls!) in tennis terms, Venus will be 33 next month, Serena 31 shortly after and even if that were not the case, the focus this year for both, appears to be the Olympics, which is all either has really spoken off all season, anyway, like Masha, she is too short for my taste. Kvitova is a fair price IMO at circa 7.0 and if she finds anything close to the level she played at last year, she will go close, but the pressure of being defending champion will be huge and only the Williams sisters have managed to repeat since 1996. Of course, with nine titles between them, they have not given anyone else much of a chance !

The bottom section contains another very dangerous floater in Eastbourne champion Tamira Paszek, she is still only 21, made the Junior final her as a 15yo and the quarters last year, also in the upper half of this section is Marion Bartoli and this pair can give anyone huge problems on this surface. However, at the very bottom of the draw, things look quite good for Australian Open champion Victoria Azarenka and she should be able to ease her way into the second week. She has reached the last eight in two of the last three years, losing to the eventual champion both times, Serena in 09 and Kvitova last year. Actually she has lost to the Czech player in each of the last two years, but took the champion, who was in imperious form, to three sets and arrives here this time with the additional confidence of not only being a grand slam winner, but having thrashed Sharapova 3&0 in that final.

Azarenka is 38-5 for the year, but 26-1 on fast courts, Roland Garros was a disappointment to her, but I feel that much of that is down to the fact that now she expects to win, or go very deep in all the majors. She took time out afterwards and went home to Minsk, I would prefer that she had at least played some grass court tennis, but the Belarus superstar knows her body well and has tended to return fresher and ready to do herself justice from these self enforced breaks. She is still prone to losing it sometimes, but these concerns are offset by her outright odds of 9.0 +, which are almost double what I made her , my price being around 5.0 .

She added Amelie Mauresmo to her team as a consultant in April, this was on a week to week basis and whilst I am not certain that they will be in London together, it would seem odd in the extreme to add a Wimbledon champion to your camp through Roland Garros and then let the arrangement drop for the All England Championships. However, even if that was the case, I feel sure that the astute Mauresmo would already have passed on some useful information, if the pair are together, it would be a huge plus, extra bonus would be that Mauresmo is a very calmimg influence too.

Azarenka took Kvitova close last year, despite making a very sluggish start to their semi and in the quarters she gace Paszek a bit of a thumping, she had eight break points against the huge serving champion, which she didn't make the most of and played to a high level right through her six matches, averaging just eight unforced errors per start, I expect her to go well and love the price, she can be vunerable early, but the draw has been kinder to her than most and we have to bet. 1.25 units Victoria Azarenka outright 9.0 +... there is some 9.8 on the exchanges and 10.0 in a place.

Later that same day, I sent this update ....

They have odds in their WTA Wimbledon Props page for "Who Will Win Wimbledon" odds are ...

Serena 3.86

Sharapova 3.55

Kvitova 7.10

The Field 2.65

I like "the field", Serena and Kvitova are in the same section, so only one can make the last four , so, "the field" will consist of at least two runners in the last four and Masha has a very tough draw , all of this was covered this morning btw and there is a good chance that only one of these three will be in the final four, no guarantee that any will, that, I accept is unlikely but regardless of 2,3 or 4 running for us, this looks a very good value bet IMO.one unit on "The Field" to win Wimbledon @ 2.65 as a bet, 2.50 + is acceptable.

Those are the only outright positions we have taken.

So, "officially", we have circa 10.0 for Azarenka to win and 2.65 for Serena not to, in addition, several of you also picked up on the only other player I suggested was worth a look and took those circa 66-1 quotes for Radwanska.
If you have all three positions, you are obviously in an amazing position and could trade out all three bets for massive profits today, if you are in that situation, maybe the least you should do is cover yourself on Serena, but I will leave those decisions to the individual. For today, I will just take a brief look at both matches as though we had no involvement.

As I discussed yesterday, Angelique Kerber's body language in the quarter finals was terrible and in the third set, even when she was a break up early, she didn't believe that she could win, it was incredible to watch. Sabine Lisicki then took a 5-3 lead and served for the match, which was effectively over, there was no way that Kerber could win the match at that stage, but of course Lisicki could lose it and she did, throwing away four games in a row, well, at least the first three of those. AK was gifted the match by her countrywoman.

I saw at Eastbourne a similar inability to close matches out and win or lose today, the German is a player who I could never back at odds on against any quality opponent, infact, at the business end of tournaments, I would be looking to trade against her anytime she hit ultra low quotes "in running", as I think she will be "looking" for a way to lose, or at least make things very difficult for herself.

She has played Agnieszka Radwanska four times previously, with honours even, the last three of these all went the distance, Kerber won the biggie, at the US Open last year in what was her breakthrough tournament, but a couple of things about that match, it came when the level of expectation was low on her and the Polish girl went into the event having played a lot of tennis in the previous month and made a whole host of unforced errors in that match. That is not her modus operandi at all, her game is all about making as few errors as possible, she has averaged just eight in her last four matches here and it is hard to see her being as generous to her opponent this time. BTW Lisicki hit 50 unforced errors in the quarter and still should have won !

The Polish player varies her game and pace, she will not blast you off court, but can do just as much damage with her drop shots and angles and the former junior Wimbledon champion will come to the net if she has to, 41 times against Kirilenko in the quarters , she is also the better mover of the two on the surface IMO. I know that I have given Kerber a hard time here, at the end of the day she is a top ten player and should receive credit for that, but she is not going to carry any of my money. Radwanska is ready for the grand slam breakthrough now, Azarenka is the only top 20 player she has lost to in the last 11 months and I take her to win another close battle. 1.25 units Radwanska to win @ 2.42 on the exchanges...... my odds were much shorter, obviously this is only if you are not already involved in Radwanska outright.

Serena Williams has the indian sign over Victoria Azarenka and leads the h2h 7-1, which includes an easy win here in 2009, but the Belarus superstar has improved out of all recognition since then and really should have got some grand slam revenge already, the following year in the Australian Open quarters she took the first set and then lost the second in a tie break, difference today is that she comes into the match a grand slam winner, with all the confidence that brings with it and at 22 yo she is still improving. Serena has been and remains a great champion, but will shortly be 31 and is certainly not getting any better and for me, her all round game is not as good as it was. The serve is still awesome and she will get some cheap points today, but not as many as against a lacklustre Kvitova, she also hit a lot of winners and kept the unforced errors down, but still lost a set to Zheng and Shvedova and could have done the same against Kvitova in a match she dominated. My long wided point is that those good things cannot get any better and she is still not winning that easily. Her return is letting her down, she failed to return around 30 serves of Zheng and as I said at the time, about half of those were not fast enough to get a speeding ticket and delivered right into Serena's hitting zone. Williams is vunerable, if someone can just put some pressure on that amazing serve, Azarenka is, arguably, the best returner in the game , she is very aggressive, but not reckless and if things do not go so easy for Serena early, she might well struggle to get into such a good rhythm on serve today. Azarenka has a huge forehand, is not unwilling to come to the net and has improved her defensive game, her serve whilst not exactly a weakness, is not her strength, but she has been winning a lot of points behind it here. This could be a classic, it certainly has the potential, if Azarenka could fizz a winner or two early off that big Williams serve it might foce the US player out of her comfort zone and we could see that "perfect" Radwanska- Azarenka final....... a guy can dream ! No bet of course, but if we were not involved outright, I would take a little on the outsider at 2.50 +.

No football for me today, but I am interested in the Irish games tomorrow, the J-League on Saturday and probably one Scandinavian fixture and HUGELY looking forward to the MLS matches on Sunday, where I might well have  a fourth maximum bet of the year (the first three have won, all at odds against). More news of that on Saturday.

The PGA tour moves onto West Virginia for the Greenbrier Classic, just a few words about the event today, we will give it our full attention on Sunday, ahead of the final round. We spoke last week about how demanding the AT&T at Congressional was, it was played out in brutal conditions and anyone who was in contention for all four rounds, will surely be feeling drained this week and that must even include, the supremely fit Tiger Woods who did us such a big favour last weekend.

Two players, who along with Matt Kuchar ( not playing), have to be considered the best Round 1 golfers on Tour are new US Open champion Webb Simpson and prolific winner Steve Stricker. Both took last week off and should be thankful for that and should reap the benefits.

Simpson is ranked T7 for R1 scoring this year, 5th in 2011 and shot an opening 65 here last year, before finally finishing in 9th place. He is 22-1 + to lead the tournament after day one, which is a fun bet, if you want to waste a few euros. He is a very nice 2.52 to beat Tiger Woods in a match ( tie no bet) with Pinnacle Sports today, Tiger has won four of his last 13 starts, three this season, but prefers to ease his way into tournaments and is ranked 41st for R1 scoring this season.

Stricker is ranked 20th this year, was 4th in 2011 and 5th in 2010, he is ultra consistent and will be refreshed after a three week break. He is not as easy to back, Bet 365 have priced him at 1.91( tie no bet) to beat Jim Furyk who played all four rounds last week, which is ok, but hardly freely available. An option is to back him to win outright at up to 25.0 on the exchanges and look to trade out if he starts well.

Good Luck.

WEDNESDAY JULY 4th #2

 MLS : WEDNESDAY JULY 4th

We have done really well with our MLS bets this summer and I expect that to continue, but to be honest, it is the Sunday fixtures this week which really excite me, many of the teams will  then be playing their third start inside seven/ eight days and some will have played the first two in brutal conditions. But I do have two picks for today.

1.25 units Colorado Rapids -0.5 ball 1.98

1.5 units Sporting Kansas City level ball 1.83

We discussed Colorado ahead of their 3-0 win over Portland at the weekend, when I wrote....

I cannot bet Colorado tonight, the odds are too short for me, but they are a side I expect to improve greatly in the coming weeks. They will be getting busy in the transfer market and have a whole host of key players coming back from long term injuries all together. They removed midfielder Jamie Smith from the disabled list after eight-mont's out, Marvel Wynne returned to the line-up last week after a month sidelined with a hamstring injury and prolific strike partners Conor Casey and Omar Cummings could play together for the first time since July 16, 2011 ! Portland will be without suspended defender Hanyer Mosquera. Timbers are toothless up front and only scored twice on the road all season. This really should be a home win and that would give Rapids a real boost after losing their way recently, but no bet for me, given the quotes.

Cummings and Wynne are doubts tonight, it is always tough to play consecutive games after injury, but I expect at least one to play and overall, the Rapids look much stronger than a couple of weeks ago.

Big loss for the Vancouver Whitecaps with the suspension to Jun Marques Davidson, especially given that they are already without fellow midfielders John Thorrington and Matt Watson, new signing Bryan Robson, is said to be short of fitness and a spot on the bench is surely the most he can hope for.

Montreal Impact are now nine starts without a cleansheet and have conceded 16 goals in their last 7 starts, two or more in six of those, SKC are coming of two MLS losses, but have goals in them and have scored two or more in 6 of their last 9 outings in all competitions. It is warm and a bit sticky up in Montreal at present, but it will see like a spring day to the visitors, who have faced triple digit ( F) temperatures in Kansas recently.

Hosts have lost their top scorer Bernardo Corradi with a season ending injury and the worst defence in the MLS is without their two most experienced/ talented performers in Matteo Ferrari and  Nelson Rivas

Much stronger squad for the visitors and they will be looking for the three points to get them back in the hunt for the East title , there is some 2.25 even up to 2.40 around in a place or two for the visitors to score two or more which looks very nice, Impact have already done that in 67% of their recent starts and are now defensively weaker.

Good Luck.