USPGA TOUR:GREENBRIER CLASSIC

Webb Simpson leads the way by two strokes, of course he does !

Having suggested him to lead after day 1 @ 22-1, he leads after day 2 and 3 instead !

I would like to oppose Simpson, he has blown leads before and despite having a favourite's chance, he is not a player I would want to take low odds about, but his quote on the exchanges is very close to what I made him personally, so I will have to leave that alone.

There are 21 players within six strokes of the lead, but not a huge amount of quality there, maybe just 4-5 proven winners and I am going to take a tiny, tiny investment on one of those at very big odds.

Carl Pettersson is a five time winner on tour and took the last of those earlier this year at the RKC Heritage, a little early in the year for him as three of his first four wins came in high summer and none previously before June, so he should be peaking now. Before that win he had posted two missed cuts and then went 2nd ,1st in consecutive weeks, coming into this event he had also had two missed cuts and had also only played two days before posting previous wins. So, he can find form very quickly and probably is incentivised and maybe even refreshed, after not playing the previous weekend.

He has played the back nine in -6 over the last two days and not dropped a stroke over those 18 holes, last year he finished strongly here on Sunday shooring -4 for the backline with five birdies in total. He is ranked 13th on tour this year and 9th last for R4 scoring and although six strokes behind  Simpson, he is only four off second and three behind those tied for third.

It is a very tough ask for him to win of course, but that is why we get a brave man's price ... 66-1 ! Just a little interest 0.25 units each way @ 67.0 1/5th odds 123 with Sky, Victor, Paddy, Ladbrokes , Hills. Alternative is a 0.5 unit win bet at 95.0/100.0 on the exchanges and look to trade out at some stage.  At a pinch, 50-1 + is just about ok for the each way bet.

MLS :

I am now leaving the Chicago Fire - LA Galaxy match, after originally being very keen on Fire my ardour has been cooled slightly, but I cannot really explain why, but once I start to get that "feeling" I always pass on the action. It is definitely a changing of the guard at Galaxy, Landon Donovan looks on his way out and motivation might be a problem for him, Frank Lampard has been in LA and hanging out with David Beckham who is suspended tonight, you can add 2+2 and get a $20m two year contract for Frank. Only Keane of the "galiticos" available and several other players carrying knocks and that hugely disappointing loss against the Earthquakes last week has ended any real interest/dreams for this season.I prefer on form Fire who did us a favour in midweek, but as I say, something is stopping me from pulling the trigger.

I like Philadelphia Union ( 3 wins in five) , whom we have discussed a lot recently ( see below) to beat Toronto FC ( unbeaten in five), both teams have upped their game recently, but it is Union who have impressed me more and I really liked the road win at Galaxy in midweek, which came after a very tough game at Houston in the Texas heat. Toronto sampled some of that themselves on Wednesday when they went to Dallas and they might need a little longer to recover and a second straight road game is far from ideal.

The pair met in a reverse fixture about 6-7 weeks ago in Ontario, Union were a defensive shambles at the time, but were extremely unlucky to lose 1-0, they pretty much dominated the second half and were denied by the woodwork, before gifting TFC , who were hanging on at the time, a late winner, a goal which came from not one, but three defensive errors !

Union look a completely different team under John Hackworth and their personnel are far better suited to his 4-3-3 formation, now that they have found a goal touch and ironed out many of those defnsive problems, especially defending crosses, I take them to get revenge for that recent defeat . 1.5 units Philadelphia Union -0.5 ball 1.96 asian line.

Good Luck.


PHILADELPHIA UNION- SPORTING KANSAS CITY

We discussed Philly last week (see below) and I was very keen to oppose them against DC United and the visitors won 1-0 , but it was close and DC coach Ben Olsen said about Union  “They were good. give them a lot of credit. I thought their energy was good, I thought their soccer was better on the night. ... But at the end of the day it’s about winning games.”

Piotr Nowak was actually fired before the game, this lifted the mood and the players responded for interim coach John Hackworth, who said "If we play that way every week, we’re gonna win a lot of games. So, I’m disappointed but I take a lot of positives out of this game." He also answered a few other questions ....

Will you stick with this lineup?“I would. I need time to think about it. I’m very emotionally charged right now as you can imagine, but I’m going to look at the tape tomorrow. My initial thoughts are that they played the way the Union wants to play. The fans want that. The front office, our ownership, they want that kind of energy. And that was fantastic, so we’ll evaluate it, see how our guys are feeling…next Saturday here I expect you’ll see a lot of the same.

Why didn’t we see Gomez? Was it because he was away at WC qualifying?Partly. He got hurt in Dallas. He never fully recovered from that injury with the national team when he was with Panama. He got released yesterday afternoon; he didn’t play. He has not played a game since Dallas, which is quite a long break, so if the game had presented itself and there was an opportunity…but obviously when you get behind, and we had all the momentum, I didn’t think there was a way they would get down near us. I thought either we were going to give up a foul but they got it, and that was that.
 
What were your emotions like before the game?“What a great day all the way around. The fans were fantastic; the players were awesome beforehand. It was a great night for the Philadelphia Union in a lot of ways. And I was excited. I was confident, relaxed…At this point my job becomes managing the game. We prepared…the players need to know what they’re doing and I thought they did, and they went and tried to do that, and so, it was all good."
This is about the most positive I have seen any side after a home defeat and it is clear that with Nowak has also gone a big weight off the team, forward Antoine Hoppenot was denied by the woodwork at a key stage and he said “It’s nice to see a positive offensive showing, we always knew we could do it.  We knew we had the skills and players to be a force on offense.  It doesn’t come to a surprise to us and a great show for the fans to see and hopefully next game we will score two or three.”

Plenty to take out of the game and the new coach has had a free midweek and seven days to fully focus on this game. Kansas were at home last week, went to Seattle in midweek and now all the way over to Philly, that is pretty gruelling, key players Matt Besler and Bobby Convey have been moved up to "Questionable", but a place on the bench is the most either can probably expect and they are likely to be given a little longer recovery time. Nagamura is also a doubt and options look limited in midfield. Think a draw is likely here, the only two h2h meetings have ended all square and that is a result which probably both could accept, but I will take 1.25 units Philadelphia +0.25 ball 1.88 asian line, as I smell an upset home win.

PHILADELPHIA UNION- DC UNITED
Hosts are up against it here, they have not won in five MLS starts and have conceded five in their last two home starts, against teams with arguably a lesser potent attack than United, who are the league's top scorers and out for a little revenge after Union beat them in a US Cup match just ten days ago ( 2-1 after extra time in Maryland). That was an ill tempered affair, which saw the red cards fly , Ben Olsen the DC coach rounded on his players after that, for what he described as an unacceptable performance. Olsen was probably the greatest player in the club's history and the current crop will be embarrassed that he was so angered by that showing. That have won their last three league starts and scored 20 goals in their last eight starts.They have defender Robbie Russell back tonight and should have their trio of strikers Chris Pontius, Maicon Santos and Dwayne De Rosario with 17 goals between them, all back in the line up. Three points will ensure they stay top of the Eastern Division.
This is a fixture that usually produces a lot of goals. With the last four MLS meetings all seeing at least four, but it is hard to see Union contributing too many this evening. For a start, they have been pretty toothless all season, scoring just eight and tonight they miss their suspended top scoring striker Lionard Pajoy. They have brought in Jorge Perlaza from Portland, but it cwas at the cost of another and perhaps more promising forward and the Colombian's strike rate of six goals in 44 starts is not going to strike fear into too many DC defenders. This is just the latest in some very strange decisions by Union coach Petr Nowak, who for some unknown reason got rid of Sebastien Le Toux, captain Danny Califf, and now Danny Mwanga, he is said to be looking to move overseas and obviously wants to sell the crown jewels before he goes ! The rats are leaving a sinking ship, two teams heading in different directions and the better one has a little revenge on it's mind. 1.5 units DC United level ball 1.98 asian line.