FRIDAY JULY 6th

FRIDAY JULY 6th

Agnieszka Radwanska beat Angelique Kerber in straight sets, Webb Simpson shot a first round 65 and beat Tiger Woods by six strokes and Steve Sticker finished two ahead of Jim Furyk, although unfortunately that one was not freely available. The day would have been perfect had Victoria Azarenka been able to find a way past Serena Williams, she fought hard and the US superstar showed signs of getting a little "tight" towards the end of the second set, but her massive/incredible serve got her out of trouble each time.

Today, I have brief notes about three events, the Greenbrier Classic, the Men's Semi- Finals at Wimbledon and one Irish match tonight.

The schedule for the weekend looks like this.....

SATURDAY: Email will be sent before 09.00UK time  and will contain notes on the late morning J-League games, the Women's Final from Wimbledon and a strong bet for one of the Scandinavian football matches.

SUNDAY : Email #1 @ 10.00 UK time Will look at the Men's Final, Round 4 of the Greenbrier Classic and probably an after football fixture.

Email #2 Will cover the MLS fixtures, where I have several strong ideas and am still considering upgraded one to maximum bet status, I will update that situationin the earlier notes. I will send this at midday.

GREENBRIER CLASSIC :

I am interested in the three ball containing Steve Stricker, Webb Simson and Tiger Woods, they shot repectively -1. -5 +1 yesterday and as you know I was happy to oppose Tiger, but want to side with him today.

His game was off yesterday, but there were reasons , the tough week last week for one and also because Tiger missed his regular Tuesday practice, that was cancelled due to bad weather. To be honest, Woods is a bit anal and for his very precise schedule to be thrown off like that is not ideal for him. The only chance he had to play, what for him is a completely new course, was Wednesday in the Pro-Am. Also the course was foggy yesterday and he claimed not to be able to see the opening holes. He said “I was a little bit off with my game, and on top of that I didn’t have the speed of these greens at all, my last three tournaments, the greens were awfully quick and they have a lot of swing at the end because of how fast they are. I missed literally every single putt high today.”

OK, so why do I like him today ? Well, he needs a good round to make the cut and Tiger doesn't really do missed cuts, usually one per year and he has already had his one for 2012, also, he will know the course so much better today and he almost always shoots better in R2 than R1, infact, he has a stuning Friday record on Tour, he didn't play enough to get ranked in two recent years, but those aside he has been ranked 3-1-1-1-2-1-3-3-3-1-1 in eleven of the other dozen years for Round 2 scoring. That, and he is back to believing he is the best golfer on the planet again and once he truly believes it, then he probably is. Tiger Woods to win the 18.20 UK time three ball 2.375 +, there is some 2.40/ 2.50 around and 2.40 + on the exchanges.

IRISH PREMIER LEAGUE : UCD - DERRY CITY

I was interested in City tonight, they have a really good record in this fixture, being unbetaen in eight visits, with five wins and also scoring two or more goals in the last five, they are coming off two heavy defeats, but had scored two or more in five of six starts before that. UCD have one cleansheet in ten and have conceded at least two in six of those.Hosts are without top scorer Graham Rusk, who has notched half their league goals this season and starting defender Mark Langtry and have a host of other knocks to contend with, including another key defender in David O'Connor.

This looked a really good opportunity for City to get back on track, but I watched a few highlights from the recent loss to Drogheda and they looked poor, infact, their coach described the performance as embarassing. To be fair they are short on numbers,  Kevin Deery, Mark Farren, Stewart Greacen and Brian McGroary are all out, which would be OK, but Gerard Doherty ( everpresent keeper) , Ruaidhrí Higgins ( key midfileder), Patrick McEleney ( defender 11 starst) and Rory Patterson ( striker 5 goals in 13 starts) are all doubtful !

I think Patterson is out for sure, as City signed striker Conor Murphy and a midfielder yesterday for the rest of the season, so at least they have acted quickly and the coach says he expects Higgins and McEleney to play. Officially, I have to pass, but I still think that this is City's to win, if Murphy ( he has already scored against UCD this season for his former club) , Higgins and McEleney make the line up, I will probably take a little on the away win, as I do not see where the UCD goals are going to come from, the only match they have won without Rusk scoring was against now defunct Monaghan.

WIMBLEDON :

ANDY MURRAY - JO-WILFRIED TSONGA

Huge pressure on Murray, who is looking to become the first British male in a million years to reach the Wimbledon final. He has a very solid record against Tsonga and the frenchman's big weapons do not work agaist Murray, who has won the last four meetings, two of which came on grass, here in 2010 and at Queens last year. In those four meetings Murray has had 35 break points and the big serving Tsonga just 15, this match is for Murray to lose, but he looks stronger mentally and really ought to make it through to the final, however, the odds are useless, how about JWT to win a tie break and Murray to see this out in four sets , which is 3.75 on the exchanges.

ROGER FEDERER - NOVAK DJOKOVIC

Federer leads the h2h 14-13, but Djokovic has taken the last four and seven of the last eight, three of those came in grand slam semis, all won by the Serbian and two came in straight set wins, the pendulum looks to have well and truly swung his way.But, they have never met on grass previously, which is odd and the Swiss master is 64-7 on the Wimbledon courts, if he is going to stop the hemorrhaging, it is as likely to be here as anywhere else. I suspect that he has played more centre court matches than anyone in recent history and has more experience with the roof on, which looks extremely likely today.

Despite that last straight sets loss at Roland Garros, Federer had chances and unlike the in the French, this time RF's backhand slice will stay low, low, low and fast. I think that shot will be key and give Federer a chance for the upset.
Circa 3.50 for the match to go to five sets seems a fair price to me, four of Federer's last matches at the Championships in the previous five years here have been decided that way.

Good Luck.