clubgowi MLS newsletter notes 05/10 ....

Next newsletter is at 10.00 UK time Sunday.

Eastern Conference....

Eastern				Overall									Home						Away
				P	W	D	L	F	A	Gdf	Pts	Form	P	W	D	L	F	A	P	W	D	L	F	A
	1		New York	31	15	7	9	48	37	+11	52	XWWW	15	10	3	2	27	12	16	5	4	7	21	25
	2		Sporting Kansas City	30	14	6	10	43	29	+14	48	LWWW	16	8	3	5	28	15	14	6	3	5	15	14
	3	1	Houston Dynamo	31	13	8	10	39	37	+2	47	WXWW	15	9	3	3	24	14	16	4	5	7	15	23
	4	1	Montreal Impact	30	13	7	10	48	45	+3	46	LXLL	15	9	3	3	29	18	15	4	4	7	19	27
	5	3	Chicago Fire	31	12	7	12	41	45	-4	43	WXLW	16	9	3	4	28	21	15	3	4	8	13	24
	6	1	Philadelphia Union	30	11	9	10	38	39	-1	42	WLLO	15	6	5	4	21	16	15	5	4	6	17	23
	7	1	New England Revolution	30	11	8	11	42	34	+8	41	XWLL	16	7	4	5	26	14	14	4	4	6	16	20
	8	1	Columbus Crew	31	12	5	14	40	41	-1	41	WWWL	15	7	3	5	19	11	16	5	2	9	21	30
	9		Toronto FC	31	5	11	15	29	45	-16	26	WLLX	16	3	8	5	22	22	15	2	3	10	7	23
	10		D.C. United	31	3	6	22	20	55	-35	15	LLLX	15	3	3	9	14	26	16	0	3	13	6	29

Western Conference....

Western				Overall									Home						Away
				P	W	D	L	F	A	Gdf	Pts	Form	P	W	D	L	F	A	P	W	D	L	F	A
	1		Real Salt Lake	31	15	6	10	54	39	+15	51	WLLW	15	9	3	3	28	14	16	6	3	7	26	25
	2		Seattle Sounders	29	15	6	8	39	29	+10	51	XXWW	15	10	4	1	27	10	14	5	2	7	12	19
	3		Portland Timbers	30	12	13	5	46	31	+15	49	WWXW	15	10	4	1	28	11	15	2	9	4	18	20
	4		Los Angeles Galaxy	30	13	6	11	46	37	+9	45	LXXL	14	9	3	2	26	8	16	4	3	9	20	29
	5		Colorado Rapids	30	12	9	9	37	31	+6	45	LWWL	15	8	4	3	22	13	15	4	5	6	15	18
	6		San Jose Earthquakes	31	12	8	11	32	41	-9	44	WWOW	15	9	5	1	20	12	16	3	3	10	12	29
	7		Vancouver Whitecaps	30	11	8	11	42	39	+3	41	LWOL	15	8	4	3	27	17	15	3	4	8	15	22
	8		FC Dallas	30	10	10	10	42	46	-4	40	LLLW	15	8	5	2	25	19	15	2	5	8	17	27
	9		Chivas USA	31	6	8	17	29	55	-26	26	LLXW	16	5	4	7	17	24	15	1	4	10	12	31

Things are getting incredibly exciting in the hunt for a top 5 finish.

Three matches have my attention this evening....

New York Red Bulls- New England Revolution

Philadelphia Union- Toronto FC

Colorado Rapids- Seattle Sounders

So, in that order. I have to feel that this is a bigger match for the Revolution, who, with three of their remaining fixtures on the road, have made things difficult for themselves and cannot afford to come away from the Big Apple, empty handed.  Red Bulls are not secure yet, but a single point will cement their place in the post season and I suspect that getting that will be their priority, then, in remaining fixtures they can go for things a little more and look to claim the number one playoff spot.

Team news is not overly important for me at this stage of the season, at least in terms of one or two players, motivation, heart and desire can overcome the loss of a couple of starters. But Red Bulls are likely to have Thierry Henry and Jamison Olave back and likewise Juan Agudelo for the visitors. Revolution have been playing better than results might suggest and are creating plenty of goalscoring chances. They have scored in 14 of their last 16 starts, two or more in 9 of those, including in four road games and whilst they do not have the best record in New York, they do pose a much greater offensive threat now, than in recent visits .

I spoke about the visitors back in August ...
They are coming into the game with back-to-back wins for the first time since winning three in a row at the end of May, I was particularly impressed with the road wins at Columbus Crew and DC United as they rotated heavily for those two matches and coach Jay Heaps now has a lot of options at his disposal . Up front, what looked an offensive line short of experience through early season, is now one full of potential, 18 yo Diego Fagundez (18-7-4.... improving on a daily basis) and 23 yo Dimitry Imbongo (9-3-0.....three goals in his last five appearances) both scored in DC. Fagundez has scored in the last two and they are his first goals since scoring in four consecutive games, he is obviously "streaky" like most strikers and you know I love an inform frontman ! One of those goals came when the teams met here at Gillette Stadium on May 25th, Revolution won 2-0 with 20 yo US International Juan Agudelo (11-4-1) scoring the other. Both goals came from crosses in that game and that could be key again today, the first via a Chris Tierney ball which set up Fagundez, in recent starts left sided back/winger Tierney (17-3-3) has been forced to hold back a little more , but he set up the equaliser last week and the introduction of left back Kevin Alston from the bench ,who has been injured since March, allowed Tierney to get far further forward.

Coach Heaps spoke about this after the game:"He's exactly what we needed-a shot of energy. He's been great all week in training and up to this point in two weeks of training," Heaps said. "He's been itching to get on the field and you could see when he came on he was like a shot out of a cannon."We needed a player and we needed an outside back, we needed cover and you saw how it changed tonight when we were able to get Chris up by bringing on Alston. "It's an awesome story,I know he's going to make an impact on our team, it's almost like a signing and a lot of the players feel like we added a really excellent outside back."In the second half we really wanted to get Tierney in some better spots. We switched Saer Sene to the other side to give ourselves a bit more width because he naturally wants to come in so we pushed him wider. "We found the little gaps. I thought Dimitry had a nice finish and Saer really should have had two goals." So much potential in the hosts, who are only going to get stronger.

Regardless of what happens today and the rest of this season, Revolution will be pleased with their campaign, they were bottom two in each of the last two seasons, each time 18 points adrift of the playoffs and this is a franchise back heading in the right direction. If they build and do not sell, they will have a big 2014. 1.25 units New England Revolution +0.5 ball 2.14 -2.17 asian line.... IBC are biggest as I type.

Philly host TFC today and go to DC United next week, after which it is Montreal away and SKC at home, so far harder and I would suggest they probably need six points from these next two and certainly at home today, to make the post season. TFC had a confidence boosting big win over fellow strugglers United last week, but their opponent had that US Open Cup final to concentrate on and I would not read too much into that. Nothing for the visitors to play for and I guess thoughts are very much on next season and with only two games left for them after today and a two week gap until the next, they might, at least mentally, already be lying on a beach somewhere. Union looked to have blown things after a five match winless run, but really stepped up with a 1-0 win at Sporting KC last time out and they will have been basking in the warm glow that brought for eight days and will be well rested and fired up to record back to back wins. Massive game for them. 1.5 units Philadelphia Union -1 ball 2.17-2.21 asian line... again IBC are biggest as I type.

You know that I am a Seattle "fan" and have tipped them up as likely Supporters Shield winners for many weeks and I have been on the money there, but I feel they might lose this evening. They have two games in hand of many teams and they might just be more focused on two big West Coast match ups over the next seven days against Vancouver and Portland. Rapids have matches against Vancouver (twice) and a trip to San Jose ( if they know the way there !) left after this, two teams they are battling toe to toe with for a top 5 finish. They are solid at home ( 8-4-3) and in many ways, this might be the "easier" of their four remaining fixtures. They are unbeaten in seven at home and have not played in 15 days, since a 1-0 loss in Portland, they are straining at the leash to get out there and will strip fresher that Sounders, who have played twice in the meantime. Hosts might start with  Martin Rivero, Gabriel Torres and Vicente Sánchez for the first time , but whomever plays, will be up for this. Clint Dempsey did not travel with the Sounders squad. 1.25 units Colorado Rapids -0.5 ball asian line 2.29 Pinnacle Sports.

Good Luck.

Today's J-League notes....

J-League :

2013				Overall									Home						Away
				P	W	D	L	F	A	Gdf	Pts	Form	P	W	D	L	F	A	P	W	D	L	F	A
	1		Yokohama F-Marinos	27	15	7	5	45	26	+19	52	OWXL	14	8	6	0	24	13	13	7	1	5	21	13
	2		Sanfreece Hiroshima	27	15	5	7	43	25	+18	50	WWLL	14	8	3	3	24	13	13	7	2	4	19	12
	3		Urawa Reds	27	14	6	7	51	39	+12	48	XXLW	13	8	3	2	28	16	14	6	3	5	23	23
	4		Kashima Antlers	27	14	5	8	46	42	+4	47	WWLW	13	11	2	0	25	10	14	3	3	8	21	32
	5	1	FC Tokyo	27	13	5	9	51	35	+16	44	WWWW	12	7	1	4	23	13	15	6	4	5	28	22
	6	1	Cerezo Osaka	27	11	11	5	40	24	+16	44	WXXO	14	7	5	2	21	11	13	4	6	3	19	13
	7		Kawasaki Frontale	27	12	6	9	52	44	+8	42	WLWO	13	7	4	2	27	16	14	5	2	7	25	28
	8		Vegalta Sendai	27	10	10	7	34	27	+7	40	OWWL	14	6	6	2	20	12	13	4	4	5	14	15
	9		Omiya Ardija	27	12	3	12	39	38	+1	39	LLLW	14	6	3	5	21	24	13	6	0	7	18	14
	10		Kashiwa Reysol	27	10	8	9	43	48	-5	38	XXLL	14	6	4	4	27	29	13	4	4	5	16	19
	11	2	Shimizu S-Pulse	27	11	5	11	36	45	-9	38	WLWW	14	7	2	5	20	23	13	4	3	6	16	22
	12		Albirex Niigata	27	11	4	12	34	36	-2	37	XLWL	13	7	1	5	21	20	14	4	3	7	13	16
	13	2	Nagoya Grampus 8	27	10	6	11	38	39	-1	36	LLLX	14	7	3	4	21	16	13	3	3	7	17	23
	14		Sagan Tosu	27	9	6	12	40	52	-12	33	LWWX	14	6	2	6	19	23	13	3	4	6	21	29
	15		Ventforet Kofu	27	7	8	12	27	37	-10	29	LXWX	13	4	1	8	13	17	14	3	7	4	14	20
	16		Shonan Bellmare	27	6	6	15	28	50	-22	24	XWLW	14	3	5	6	17	24	13	3	1	9	11	26
	17		Jubilo Iwata	27	3	10	14	35	46	-11	19	LLWX	13	2	4	7	19	23	14	1	6	7	16	23
	18		Oita Trinita	27	1	7	19	28	57	-29	10	LLLL	13	0	4	9	13	24	14	1	3	10	15	33

Last week I wrote ...

Only 8 rounds to play and an awful lot of teams (most) are in danger of having little very little to play for soon, that doesn't have to make things totally uninteresting, at least for now, as we will surely see many of these teams, who have nothing to lose, gambling big time for the points which might yet see them make an unlikely run at a top 3 (Champions League ) or title push. Someone in 6th, or even down as low as 12th/13th is in no danger of relegation currently and if they could put together a 4-5 match winning run, which they are "freerolling " for, could yet get into contention. That is what I will be looking out for and as we discussed at the end of last month .... "a huge amount of the J-League action is taking place after the break in any case, with 64% of all goals being scored in the second half and a lot of matches being turned on their heads, with 31% of teams who are ahead at half time, not winning the match and being as likely to lose, as to draw."

Those Stats have largely held up over the last four weeks. Goals continue on the increase and the 2.91 per game average are 0.15 per game up on last season and that is all the more impressive, as we lost Consadole Sapporo who conceded a whopping 88 goals and Gamba Osaka, who's matches produced an eye popping 132 goals (3.82 average).

Draws are running at 23.93% (4.18 odds).

Now to find a way to use all this !

Round 28 Saturday fixtures.....


Jubilo Iwata ( 10 points from safety) - Vegalta Sendai ( 8 points off top 3)

Jubilo have won 0/7 at home when level, Vegalta are 1-3-2 on the road when all square.
Jubilo Iwata have conceded first in 11/13 home matches against top-half teams.

Sendai have only lost 3/13 away second half's and now that the draw is of little use and that Jubilo have been made favourite for this, I would favour the visitor, but small, I unit.


Sanfreece Hiroshima (2 points off top place/ 3 clear of 4th) - Shimizu S-Pulse ( 14 points clear of relegation)

Hosts are 4-9-1 at home in the second period, but are often defending a lead, when level they are  2-3-0. SSP are a useful 5-0-6 away and 3-1-3 when level.

But SSP are safe and will open up and Sanfreece's need is great,especially with a trip to Marinos next week, they also have a good scoring record here against mid table teams, I would make them a very solid 1.5 unit pick if all square at the break. When we should only have to give up 0.5 ball at most.



Urawa Reds ( 4 points off top) - Omiya Ardija  ( 9 points off CL)

Urawa only seem to come alive after the break (8-3-2 at home) and are 3-2-1 when level. Omiya are 7-2-4 on the road, but most of those results came before they lost their way, 3-0-2 when level. Reds have scored a  J-League high 21 goals at home in the second 45 mins. Omiya have a terrible road record against top six teams in the last year losing  61%, especially considering that over that period they have won eight away starts. 1.25 units Urawa Reds, line might be 0.25, or odds against -0.5 ball.



Shonan Bellmare ( 5 points from safety)-Nagoya Grampus ( 12 clear of relegation)

Shonan are 3-6-5 this season at home after the break , 2-3-3 when level, Grampus have lost 7 , including 5 when level and with not too much to play for, I would strongly favour the home, who have now got that gap down to under two "wins" and can put huge pressure on Kofu, who face the leaders anyway, later in the day. Big, big game for them, we can probably bet them at odds against off level ball at the half and that is not so bad, as although we are looking for teams motivated to win, the point could still see them one nearer to safety and  they will battle to the death to get it, if they do fall behind. 1.25 units



Oita Trinita ( 19 points from safety)-Cerezo Ozaka (4 points off CL)

Oita are 1-6-6 in the second half at home and have won 0 from 9 when level.Cerezo are 4-5-4 amd 3-5-3 when level, which they nearly always are (11/13). They did us a big favour with their second half performance last week and could move very close to the top 3 with a win here, next three matches are against teams with an average league placing of 16th, a great opportunity. Oita are all but down. Line should be around -0.5 ball and I will be all over it like a rash 1.5 units. ** see foot of the email **where there is an alternative bet.


Albirex Niigata ( 13 clear of relegation/ 11 from top 3)-Sagan Tosu ( 9 points clear of relegation)

Draw has no value at all for Niigata and to be honest, neither has the win really, but they are 8-2-3 at home after the break and 4-0-1 when level and only Urawa have scored more. Sagan games have produced a second highest in J-League 35 goals in the second half, when they have lost 7/13, but won 2/5 when level. This screams goals after the break and if level 0-0 or 1-1, as (2-2 and up) quotes are too low, I want to back "over" 1.5 for second half ( over 1.5 if 0-0 , over 3.5 if 1-1), 1.25 units.


FC Tokyo ( 4 points off CL)-Kashima Antlers  (1 point off CL spot)

FCT are closing in on the top 4 and are 8-0-4 here at home, 3-0-2 when level, Antlers are protecting their 4th spot but have won just a single (1/14) away start in the second period, but have drawn seven and a point for them, with four of their reamining six fixtures coming at home, might not be too bad and I will pass on this fixture.



Ventforet Kofu ( 5 clear of relegation)- Yokohama F.Marinos (lead by 2 points)

This is another game I am happy to leave, as a point could be valuable to both. Marinos have two home games after this, including a visit from Hiroshima.



The bottom two games kick off late and those teams will know the results of the other matches by the time they take to the field and these are the two fixtures where maybe 3/4 could settle for a point. So I will leave those alone.

Team news doesn't interest me for these, as firstly that is overriden by motivation and we are looking for half time draws, so by that criteria, each team will have held their own for at least 45 minutes and "in contention".

I also added ...

Last four rounds have seen 16 matches all square at the break, which is 44.44% , close enough to the seasonal average of 47%, it makes sense that the percentage is down slightly as some teams have less reason to be cagey and that is what we are basically  talking about. Over the 26 rounds, 32.7% of games that were level at the half, have ended in stalemate, that number has dropped slightly over recent weeks and should continue to do so, with teams having so little use for one point. But even without that factor we could still expect at least 67% of all half time draws to end with a positive result for one team.
Two to four of these six matches should be level at the break, if it is none, this is still a worthwhile exercise IMO and will help us in the weeks to come.

Four were level at the half in the last round and one ended up as a draw, but that was one the few teams (Marinos) we had highlighted as able to settle for a point, so stats were pretty much as expected in terms of half time and "perfect" in terms of final outcome.

So remember, all note above in bold black type, are written as if the match was level at half time and assuming that we are 11 v 11, odds change (sometimes too much) with a sending off and the match dynamics are altered, even if it is 10 v 10.

These are all stats and motivation based and you will have your own opinion, especially if watching the match yourself. It is hard to be precise regarding lines at the break, but I should be close enough and if in doubt, do what I do and always opt for the tougher quote and bigger odds.

**The Oita-Cerezo match is .... only for subscribers.
Good Luck.