J-League :
| 2013 | Overall | Home | Away | |||||||||||||||||||||
| P | W | D | L | F | A | Gdf | Pts | Form | P | W | D | L | F | A | P | W | D | L | F | A | ||||
| 1 |  | Yokohama F-Marinos | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 45 | 26 | +19 | 52 | OWXL | 14 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 24 | 13 | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 13 | |
| 2 | | Sanfreece Hiroshima | 27 | 15 | 5 | 7 | 43 | 25 | +18 | 50 | WWLL | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 13 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 12 | |
| 3 | | Urawa Reds | 27 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 51 | 39 | +12 | 48 | XXLW | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 28 | 16 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 23 | |
| 4 | | Kashima Antlers | 27 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 46 | 42 | +4 | 47 | WWLW | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 10 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 32 | |
| 5 |  1 | FC Tokyo | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 51 | 35 | +16 | 44 | WWWW | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 13 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 22 | |
| 6 |  1 | Cerezo Osaka | 27 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 40 | 24 | +16 | 44 | WXXO | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 21 | 11 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 19 | 13 | |
| 7 | | Kawasaki Frontale | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 44 | +8 | 42 | WLWO | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 27 | 16 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 28 | |
| 8 | | Vegalta Sendai | 27 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 34 | 27 | +7 | 40 | OWWL | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 20 | 12 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 15 | |
| 9 | | Omiya Ardija | 27 | 12 | 3 | 12 | 39 | 38 | +1 | 39 | LLLW | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 24 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 18 | 14 | |
| 10 | | Kashiwa Reysol | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 43 | 48 | -5 | 38 | XXLL | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 27 | 29 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 19 | |
| 11 | 2 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 36 | 45 | -9 | 38 | WLWW | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 23 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 22 | |
| 12 | | Albirex Niigata | 27 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 37 | XLWL | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 20 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 16 | |
| 13 | 2 | Nagoya Grampus 8 | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 38 | 39 | -1 | 36 | LLLX | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 23 | |
| 14 | | Sagan Tosu | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 40 | 52 | -12 | 33 | LWWX | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 23 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 29 | |
| 15 | | Ventforet Kofu | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 27 | 37 | -10 | 29 | LXWX | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 20 | |
 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
 | 16 | | Shonan Bellmare | 27 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 28 | 50 | -22 | 24 | XWLW | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 24 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 11 | 26 |
| 17 | | Jubilo Iwata | 27 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 35 | 46 | -11 | 19 | LLWX | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 23 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 23 |
| 18 | | Oita Trinita | 27 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 28 | 57 | -29 | 10 | LLLL | 13 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 24 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 15 | 33 |
Last week I wrote ...
Only 8 rounds to play and an awful lot of teams (most) are in danger of having little very little to play for soon, that doesn't have to make things totally uninteresting, at least for now, as we will surely see many of these teams, who have nothing to lose, gambling big time for the points which might yet see them make an unlikely run at a top 3 (Champions League ) or title push. Someone in 6th, or even down as low as 12th/13th is in no danger of relegation currently and if they could put together a 4-5 match winning run, which they are "freerolling " for, could yet get into contention. That is what I will be looking out for and as we discussed at the end of last month .... "a huge amount of the J-League action is taking place after the break in any case, with 64% of all goals being scored in the second half and a lot of matches being turned on their heads, with 31% of teams who are ahead at half time, not winning the match and being as likely to lose, as to draw."
Those
Stats have largely held up over the last four weeks. Goals continue on
the increase and the 2.91 per game average are 0.15 per game up on last
season and that is all the more impressive, as we lost Consadole Sapporo
who conceded a whopping 88 goals and Gamba Osaka, who's matches
produced an eye popping 132 goals (3.82 average).
Draws are running at 23.93% (4.18 odds).
Now to find a way to use all this !
Round 28 Saturday fixtures.....
Jubilo Iwata ( 10 points from safety) - Vegalta Sendai ( 8 points off top 3)
Jubilo have won 0/7 at home when level, Vegalta are 1-3-2 on the road when all square.
Jubilo Iwata have conceded first in 11/13 home matches against top-half teams.
Sendai have only lost 3/13 away second half's and now that the draw is of little use and that Jubilo have been made favourite for this, I would favour the visitor, but small, I unit.
Sanfreece Hiroshima (2 points off top place/ 3 clear of 4th) - Shimizu S-Pulse ( 14 points clear of relegation)
Hosts are 4-9-1 at home in the second period, but are often defending a lead, when level they are 2-3-0. SSP are a useful 5-0-6 away and 3-1-3 when level.
But SSP are safe and will open up and Sanfreece's need is great,especially with a trip to Marinos next week, they also have a good scoring record here against mid table teams, I would make them a very solid 1.5 unit pick if all square at the break. When we should only have to give up 0.5 ball at most.
Urawa Reds ( 4 points off top) - Omiya Ardija ( 9 points off CL)
Urawa only seem to come alive after the break (8-3-2 at home) and are 3-2-1 when level. Omiya are 7-2-4 on the road, but most of those results came before they lost their way, 3-0-2 when level. Reds have scored a J-League high 21 goals at home in the second 45 mins. Omiya have a terrible road record against top six teams in the last year losing 61%, especially considering that over that period they have won eight away starts. 1.25 units Urawa Reds, line might be 0.25, or odds against -0.5 ball.
Shonan Bellmare ( 5 points from safety)-Nagoya Grampus ( 12 clear of relegation)
Shonan are 3-6-5 this season at home after the break , 2-3-3 when level, Grampus have lost 7 , including 5 when level and with not too much to play for, I would strongly favour the home, who have now got that gap down to under two "wins" and can put huge pressure on Kofu, who face the leaders anyway, later in the day. Big, big game for them, we can probably bet them at odds against off level ball at the half and that is not so bad, as although we are looking for teams motivated to win, the point could still see them one nearer to safety and they will battle to the death to get it, if they do fall behind. 1.25 units
Oita Trinita ( 19 points from safety)-Cerezo Ozaka (4 points off CL)
Oita are 1-6-6 in the second half at home and have won 0 from 9 when level.Cerezo are 4-5-4 amd 3-5-3 when level, which they nearly always are (11/13). They did us a big favour with their second half performance last week and could move very close to the top 3 with a win here, next three matches are against teams with an average league placing of 16th, a great opportunity. Oita are all but down. Line should be around -0.5 ball and I will be all over it like a rash 1.5 units. ** see foot of the email **where there is an alternative bet.
Albirex Niigata ( 13 clear of relegation/ 11 from top 3)-Sagan Tosu ( 9 points clear of relegation)
Draw has no value at all for Niigata and to be honest, neither has the win really, but they are 8-2-3 at home after the break and 4-0-1 when level and only Urawa have scored more. Sagan games have produced a second highest in J-League 35 goals in the second half, when they have lost 7/13, but won 2/5 when level. This screams goals after the break and if level 0-0 or 1-1, as (2-2 and up) quotes are too low, I want to back "over" 1.5 for second half ( over 1.5 if 0-0 , over 3.5 if 1-1), 1.25 units.
FC Tokyo ( 4 points off CL)-Kashima Antlers (1 point off CL spot)
FCT are closing in on the top 4 and are 8-0-4 here at home, 3-0-2 when level, Antlers are protecting their 4th spot but have won just a single (1/14) away start in the second period, but have drawn seven and a point for them, with four of their reamining six fixtures coming at home, might not be too bad and I will pass on this fixture.
Ventforet Kofu ( 5 clear of relegation)- Yokohama F.Marinos (lead by 2 points)
This is another game I am happy to leave, as a point could be valuable to both. Marinos have two home games after this, including a visit from Hiroshima.
The bottom two games kick off late and those teams will know the results of the other matches by the time they take to the field and these are the two fixtures where maybe 3/4 could settle for a point. So I will leave those alone.
Team news doesn't interest me for these, as firstly that is overriden by motivation and we are looking for half time draws, so by that criteria, each team will have held their own for at least 45 minutes and "in contention".
I also added ...
Last four rounds have seen 16 matches all square at the break, which is 44.44% , close enough to the seasonal average of 47%, it makes sense that the percentage is down slightly as some teams have less reason to be cagey and that is what we are basically talking about. Over the 26 rounds, 32.7% of games that were level at the half, have ended in stalemate, that number has dropped slightly over recent weeks and should continue to do so, with teams having so little use for one point. But even without that factor we could still expect at least 67% of all half time draws to end with a positive result for one team.
Two to four of these six matches should be level at the break, if it is none, this is still a worthwhile exercise IMO and will help us in the weeks to come.
Four were level at the half in the last round and one ended up as a draw, but that was one the few teams (Marinos) we had highlighted as able to settle for a point, so stats were pretty much as expected in terms of half time and "perfect" in terms of final outcome.
So remember, all note above in bold black type, are written as if the match was level at half time and assuming that we are 11 v 11, odds change (sometimes too much) with a sending off and the match dynamics are altered, even if it is 10 v 10.
These are all stats and motivation based and you will have your own opinion, especially if watching the match yourself. It is hard to be precise regarding lines at the break, but I should be close enough and if in doubt, do what I do and always opt for the tougher quote and bigger odds.
**The Oita-Cerezo match is .... only for subscribers.
Good Luck.
Only 8 rounds to play and an awful lot of teams (most) are in danger of having little very little to play for soon, that doesn't have to make things totally uninteresting, at least for now, as we will surely see many of these teams, who have nothing to lose, gambling big time for the points which might yet see them make an unlikely run at a top 3 (Champions League ) or title push. Someone in 6th, or even down as low as 12th/13th is in no danger of relegation currently and if they could put together a 4-5 match winning run, which they are "freerolling " for, could yet get into contention. That is what I will be looking out for and as we discussed at the end of last month .... "a huge amount of the J-League action is taking place after the break in any case, with 64% of all goals being scored in the second half and a lot of matches being turned on their heads, with 31% of teams who are ahead at half time, not winning the match and being as likely to lose, as to draw."
Draws are running at 23.93% (4.18 odds).
Now to find a way to use all this !
Round 28 Saturday fixtures.....
Jubilo Iwata ( 10 points from safety) - Vegalta Sendai ( 8 points off top 3)
Jubilo have won 0/7 at home when level, Vegalta are 1-3-2 on the road when all square.
Jubilo Iwata have conceded first in 11/13 home matches against top-half teams.
Sendai have only lost 3/13 away second half's and now that the draw is of little use and that Jubilo have been made favourite for this, I would favour the visitor, but small, I unit.
Sanfreece Hiroshima (2 points off top place/ 3 clear of 4th) - Shimizu S-Pulse ( 14 points clear of relegation)
Hosts are 4-9-1 at home in the second period, but are often defending a lead, when level they are 2-3-0. SSP are a useful 5-0-6 away and 3-1-3 when level.
But SSP are safe and will open up and Sanfreece's need is great,especially with a trip to Marinos next week, they also have a good scoring record here against mid table teams, I would make them a very solid 1.5 unit pick if all square at the break. When we should only have to give up 0.5 ball at most.
Urawa Reds ( 4 points off top) - Omiya Ardija ( 9 points off CL)
Urawa only seem to come alive after the break (8-3-2 at home) and are 3-2-1 when level. Omiya are 7-2-4 on the road, but most of those results came before they lost their way, 3-0-2 when level. Reds have scored a J-League high 21 goals at home in the second 45 mins. Omiya have a terrible road record against top six teams in the last year losing 61%, especially considering that over that period they have won eight away starts. 1.25 units Urawa Reds, line might be 0.25, or odds against -0.5 ball.
Shonan Bellmare ( 5 points from safety)-Nagoya Grampus ( 12 clear of relegation)
Shonan are 3-6-5 this season at home after the break , 2-3-3 when level, Grampus have lost 7 , including 5 when level and with not too much to play for, I would strongly favour the home, who have now got that gap down to under two "wins" and can put huge pressure on Kofu, who face the leaders anyway, later in the day. Big, big game for them, we can probably bet them at odds against off level ball at the half and that is not so bad, as although we are looking for teams motivated to win, the point could still see them one nearer to safety and they will battle to the death to get it, if they do fall behind. 1.25 units
Oita Trinita ( 19 points from safety)-Cerezo Ozaka (4 points off CL)
Oita are 1-6-6 in the second half at home and have won 0 from 9 when level.Cerezo are 4-5-4 amd 3-5-3 when level, which they nearly always are (11/13). They did us a big favour with their second half performance last week and could move very close to the top 3 with a win here, next three matches are against teams with an average league placing of 16th, a great opportunity. Oita are all but down. Line should be around -0.5 ball and I will be all over it like a rash 1.5 units. ** see foot of the email **where there is an alternative bet.
Albirex Niigata ( 13 clear of relegation/ 11 from top 3)-Sagan Tosu ( 9 points clear of relegation)
Draw has no value at all for Niigata and to be honest, neither has the win really, but they are 8-2-3 at home after the break and 4-0-1 when level and only Urawa have scored more. Sagan games have produced a second highest in J-League 35 goals in the second half, when they have lost 7/13, but won 2/5 when level. This screams goals after the break and if level 0-0 or 1-1, as (2-2 and up) quotes are too low, I want to back "over" 1.5 for second half ( over 1.5 if 0-0 , over 3.5 if 1-1), 1.25 units.
FC Tokyo ( 4 points off CL)-Kashima Antlers (1 point off CL spot)
FCT are closing in on the top 4 and are 8-0-4 here at home, 3-0-2 when level, Antlers are protecting their 4th spot but have won just a single (1/14) away start in the second period, but have drawn seven and a point for them, with four of their reamining six fixtures coming at home, might not be too bad and I will pass on this fixture.
Ventforet Kofu ( 5 clear of relegation)- Yokohama F.Marinos (lead by 2 points)
This is another game I am happy to leave, as a point could be valuable to both. Marinos have two home games after this, including a visit from Hiroshima.
The bottom two games kick off late and those teams will know the results of the other matches by the time they take to the field and these are the two fixtures where maybe 3/4 could settle for a point. So I will leave those alone.
Team news doesn't interest me for these, as firstly that is overriden by motivation and we are looking for half time draws, so by that criteria, each team will have held their own for at least 45 minutes and "in contention".
I also added ...
Last four rounds have seen 16 matches all square at the break, which is 44.44% , close enough to the seasonal average of 47%, it makes sense that the percentage is down slightly as some teams have less reason to be cagey and that is what we are basically talking about. Over the 26 rounds, 32.7% of games that were level at the half, have ended in stalemate, that number has dropped slightly over recent weeks and should continue to do so, with teams having so little use for one point. But even without that factor we could still expect at least 67% of all half time draws to end with a positive result for one team.
Two to four of these six matches should be level at the break, if it is none, this is still a worthwhile exercise IMO and will help us in the weeks to come.
Four were level at the half in the last round and one ended up as a draw, but that was one the few teams (Marinos) we had highlighted as able to settle for a point, so stats were pretty much as expected in terms of half time and "perfect" in terms of final outcome.
So remember, all note above in bold black type, are written as if the match was level at half time and assuming that we are 11 v 11, odds change (sometimes too much) with a sending off and the match dynamics are altered, even if it is 10 v 10.
These are all stats and motivation based and you will have your own opinion, especially if watching the match yourself. It is hard to be precise regarding lines at the break, but I should be close enough and if in doubt, do what I do and always opt for the tougher quote and bigger odds.
**The Oita-Cerezo match is .... only for subscribers.
Good Luck.
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