J-League notes are cancelled for today, Friday 22/11.
Back to normal Saturday.
Good Luck.
Friday, November 22, 2013
Friday 22/11
Friday November 22nd
Next newsletter is due at 16.00 UK time with tomorrow's J-League notes.The
Atlanta Falcons kept the Saints to within four points, landing our bet
and a real bonus for any of you who went for New Orleans to win by 1-6
points at those big 5.50 odds.
France : League 1:Ajaccio-Marseille
We discussed the visitors ahead of their 2-1 home win over Sochaux, immediately before the international break ...
Sochaux have seen an upturn in form since Hervé Renard took charge of the squad a little over a month ago, especially offensively with two goals against Monaco, where they battled back from two down and three in a five goals thriller with Montpellier. Last time out they drew 0-0 with St Etienne, but that was far more open than the scoreline suggests and both teams were going at each other early, before the match was ruined as a spectacle with the sending off of a player for each team, which mean that they will miss suspended defender Petrus Boumal, but he has only played 163 minutes this season. a far bigger loss is central defender Carlão (9-1-1... conceded six in three without him).Offensively, right winger Roy Contout (11-3-1) has been in very good form this season, all three of his goals have come away from home and with OM struggling on that side of the field today, he looks big at circa 6.0 in the anytime goalscorer market. Anyway, both teams with defensive issues, the visitors have shown a desire to attack under Renard and OM have to go all out for the points.
André Ayew (10-2-2) is again out tonight and probably for the next two months, OM are unbeaten in the three matches he has missed, but whilst they conceded in each, road points at both Toulouse and Rennes are decent returns and at least on paper, they face a far easier task tonight against struggling Ajaccio. The hosts have won just once all season and scored a miserly nine goals , for them striker Adrian Mutu (9-0-0), defensive midfielder Benoît Pedretti (10-1-1) and central defender Zubar (12-1-0) are all injured and with another holding player in Ricardo Faty (25-2-0 last season) still sidelined, they are short of key options through the spine of the team.
Christian Bracconi took over as interim coach earlier this month, replacing sacked Fabrizio Ravenalli, the former youth academy director might have more support from the players, but this looks exactly what it is, a stop gap appointment and it is hard to see too much changing and the hosts look in for a season long battle to survive in the top flight.
Ajaccio operate with a very rigid system and it is "easy" for teams to stretch them here when they play with two wide men, Evian and Valenciennes both scored three here with their wingers having "fun" and whilst it would have been great to have Ayew on the left flank, players like Dimitri Payet and Florian Thauvin and returning right back Rod Fanni (10-0-2... who likes to get forward), will surely be looking to stretch the home side and provide for striker André-Pierre Gignac (11-5-0) who should be available to start tonight after scoring twice from just 23 minutes of play, from his last three outings. OM only have pride to play for in the Champions League now and it is all about Ligue 1 for them and they will see anything less than a maximum haul this evening, as points they can ill afford to drop, lost. 1.25 units Marseille -0.75 ball 2.23 asian line/Ibramarket.
Ajaccio : Ochoa, Sissoko, Tonucci, Bonnart, Perozo, Dielna, Crescenzi, Hengbart, Pierazzi, Cavalli, André, Mostefa, Gonçalves, Lasne, Eduardo, Tallo, Camara, Arrache.
OM: Mandanda, Samba, Abdallah, Diawara, Mendes, Mendy, Morel, N'Koulou, Cheyrou, Imbula, Romao, Valbuena, Thauvin, Lemina, J.Ayew, Gignac, Khalifa, Payet.
France Ligue 2
Creteil- Troyes
Most of you know that Troyes are a favourite of mine, not least because of the massive favour they did for us at Valenciennes in the cup recently, ahead of which I wrote ...
Hosts are bottom of Ligue 1 , five points from safety, have a vital six pointer with fellow strugglers Ajaccio at the weekend and I would suggest they need further involvement in this competition like another hole in the head !
Left back Loris Néry and defensive midfielder Tongo Doumbia (10-0-0) who both started in the home defeat to Evian at the weekend, along with a number of other defensive options , including central defender Lindsay Rose (7-0-1) and also striker Opa Nguette (8-0-0) are all out injured. They lost at the first stage of both domestic cup competitions last season to Ligue 2 oposition and it was the same story in this competition the previous season.
We discussed Troyes on Friday .... "You know that I love to watch this Troyes team, about whom I wrote earlier in the season..."Troyes impressed me at the end of last season in their ultimately fruitless attempt to avoid relegation, when they played with great spirit and attacking intent. Coach Jean Marc Furlan doesn't have a defensive bone in his body and will always be setting up his team to play on the front foot ."
They have been very badly hit with injuries all season, especially defensively, but still always look to push forward and will never sit on a lead, or take a backward step if trailing, I sent you highlights of their recent 3-3 draw with Angers last week and that encapsulates everything that is good and I suppose bad about them. Good or bad, they are really fun to watch !They get central defender Mahamadou N'Diaye (6-0-0) back tonight, but they have still been loathe (or unable) to name more that two full backs and we know that they are going to be looking to attack for at least 89 of the 90 minutes ! Auxerre have played pretty well in their last couple of matches, but have not faced a team as offensively potent or minded as Troyes for some time."
To be honest, Troyes are in a similar situation, in as much as they should only be focused on getting back into Ligue 1 asap and sitting just two points outside the promotion places, that will clearly be their priority, but two things, firstly they can only play one way, which is on the front foot and secondly, they do not have to play their Ligue 2 fixture until Monday night. They have named the same squad which saw off Auxerre comfortably on Friday, adding youngster Mickael Barreto and Thiago Xavier who has just recovered from long term injury and appear to be treating this seriously . This should be open and Valenciennes might welcome the chance to play without pressure, both to score, the visitors to edge it.
That played out perfectly, with Troyes winning 3-1 and landing both big odds selections. They then toiled through two matches, a draw at Brest on the Monday after and home loss to Laval, a few days later, with that quck turnaround once again proving very difficult to overcome. I suspect they were running on empty, it was their fourth start inside 14 days with a squad a little short of options. Tonight they are hungry to make up for that loss and coach Jean-Marc Furlan said his squad have really thrived during the break, with his men showing him tremendous "commitment and quality" this week in training.
Creteil have made a great start to life in Ligue 2, but have looked hugely vunerable defensively at times and no team outside the drop zone has conceded more and I suspect them to struggle at the back tonight to contain a team as keen to attack as Troyes, away win for me. 1.5 units Troyes -0.25 ball 2.17 asian line/Ibramarket.
France : League 1:Ajaccio-Marseille
We discussed the visitors ahead of their 2-1 home win over Sochaux, immediately before the international break ...
I
favour goals here, six of the last eight h2h meetings have gone "over"
and the visitors have scored in six ( not the same six !) of those
games. Marseille desperately need maximum points to stay in touch with
the top three and at least extend their season into the second half of
the campaign, but seem highly unlikely to be able to do so with a clean
sheet , something they have not managed in seven starts. Today they are
without right back Rod Fanni (10-0-1.... seven goals conceded in the
last 3 starts he has missed) and on the other flank Jérémy Morel is in
the squad, but has been struggling with injury all season and is not in
the best of form. Also missing is suspended left winger André Ayew
(10-2-2), he was named OM's player of the month for October and his
defensive, as well as offensive contribution will be missed today and
the hosts look vunerable down both flanks.
Sochaux have seen an upturn in form since Hervé Renard took charge of the squad a little over a month ago, especially offensively with two goals against Monaco, where they battled back from two down and three in a five goals thriller with Montpellier. Last time out they drew 0-0 with St Etienne, but that was far more open than the scoreline suggests and both teams were going at each other early, before the match was ruined as a spectacle with the sending off of a player for each team, which mean that they will miss suspended defender Petrus Boumal, but he has only played 163 minutes this season. a far bigger loss is central defender Carlão (9-1-1... conceded six in three without him).Offensively, right winger Roy Contout (11-3-1) has been in very good form this season, all three of his goals have come away from home and with OM struggling on that side of the field today, he looks big at circa 6.0 in the anytime goalscorer market. Anyway, both teams with defensive issues, the visitors have shown a desire to attack under Renard and OM have to go all out for the points.
André Ayew (10-2-2) is again out tonight and probably for the next two months, OM are unbeaten in the three matches he has missed, but whilst they conceded in each, road points at both Toulouse and Rennes are decent returns and at least on paper, they face a far easier task tonight against struggling Ajaccio. The hosts have won just once all season and scored a miserly nine goals , for them striker Adrian Mutu (9-0-0), defensive midfielder Benoît Pedretti (10-1-1) and central defender Zubar (12-1-0) are all injured and with another holding player in Ricardo Faty (25-2-0 last season) still sidelined, they are short of key options through the spine of the team.
Christian Bracconi took over as interim coach earlier this month, replacing sacked Fabrizio Ravenalli, the former youth academy director might have more support from the players, but this looks exactly what it is, a stop gap appointment and it is hard to see too much changing and the hosts look in for a season long battle to survive in the top flight.
Ajaccio operate with a very rigid system and it is "easy" for teams to stretch them here when they play with two wide men, Evian and Valenciennes both scored three here with their wingers having "fun" and whilst it would have been great to have Ayew on the left flank, players like Dimitri Payet and Florian Thauvin and returning right back Rod Fanni (10-0-2... who likes to get forward), will surely be looking to stretch the home side and provide for striker André-Pierre Gignac (11-5-0) who should be available to start tonight after scoring twice from just 23 minutes of play, from his last three outings. OM only have pride to play for in the Champions League now and it is all about Ligue 1 for them and they will see anything less than a maximum haul this evening, as points they can ill afford to drop, lost. 1.25 units Marseille -0.75 ball 2.23 asian line/Ibramarket.
Ajaccio : Ochoa, Sissoko, Tonucci, Bonnart, Perozo, Dielna, Crescenzi, Hengbart, Pierazzi, Cavalli, André, Mostefa, Gonçalves, Lasne, Eduardo, Tallo, Camara, Arrache.
OM: Mandanda, Samba, Abdallah, Diawara, Mendes, Mendy, Morel, N'Koulou, Cheyrou, Imbula, Romao, Valbuena, Thauvin, Lemina, J.Ayew, Gignac, Khalifa, Payet.
France Ligue 2
Creteil- Troyes
Most of you know that Troyes are a favourite of mine, not least because of the massive favour they did for us at Valenciennes in the cup recently, ahead of which I wrote ...
Hosts are bottom of Ligue 1 , five points from safety, have a vital six pointer with fellow strugglers Ajaccio at the weekend and I would suggest they need further involvement in this competition like another hole in the head !
Left back Loris Néry and defensive midfielder Tongo Doumbia (10-0-0) who both started in the home defeat to Evian at the weekend, along with a number of other defensive options , including central defender Lindsay Rose (7-0-1) and also striker Opa Nguette (8-0-0) are all out injured. They lost at the first stage of both domestic cup competitions last season to Ligue 2 oposition and it was the same story in this competition the previous season.
We discussed Troyes on Friday .... "You know that I love to watch this Troyes team, about whom I wrote earlier in the season..."Troyes impressed me at the end of last season in their ultimately fruitless attempt to avoid relegation, when they played with great spirit and attacking intent. Coach Jean Marc Furlan doesn't have a defensive bone in his body and will always be setting up his team to play on the front foot ."
They have been very badly hit with injuries all season, especially defensively, but still always look to push forward and will never sit on a lead, or take a backward step if trailing, I sent you highlights of their recent 3-3 draw with Angers last week and that encapsulates everything that is good and I suppose bad about them. Good or bad, they are really fun to watch !They get central defender Mahamadou N'Diaye (6-0-0) back tonight, but they have still been loathe (or unable) to name more that two full backs and we know that they are going to be looking to attack for at least 89 of the 90 minutes ! Auxerre have played pretty well in their last couple of matches, but have not faced a team as offensively potent or minded as Troyes for some time."
To be honest, Troyes are in a similar situation, in as much as they should only be focused on getting back into Ligue 1 asap and sitting just two points outside the promotion places, that will clearly be their priority, but two things, firstly they can only play one way, which is on the front foot and secondly, they do not have to play their Ligue 2 fixture until Monday night. They have named the same squad which saw off Auxerre comfortably on Friday, adding youngster Mickael Barreto and Thiago Xavier who has just recovered from long term injury and appear to be treating this seriously . This should be open and Valenciennes might welcome the chance to play without pressure, both to score, the visitors to edge it.
That played out perfectly, with Troyes winning 3-1 and landing both big odds selections. They then toiled through two matches, a draw at Brest on the Monday after and home loss to Laval, a few days later, with that quck turnaround once again proving very difficult to overcome. I suspect they were running on empty, it was their fourth start inside 14 days with a squad a little short of options. Tonight they are hungry to make up for that loss and coach Jean-Marc Furlan said his squad have really thrived during the break, with his men showing him tremendous "commitment and quality" this week in training.
Creteil have made a great start to life in Ligue 2, but have looked hugely vunerable defensively at times and no team outside the drop zone has conceded more and I suspect them to struggle at the back tonight to contain a team as keen to attack as Troyes, away win for me. 1.5 units Troyes -0.25 ball 2.17 asian line/Ibramarket.
Créteil
: Kerboriou, N’Doye I. - Augusto, Da Cruz, Di Bartolomeo, Diedhiou C.,
Ikoko, Mahon de Monaghan - Djellilahine, Lafon, Lesage, Ludovic, Ndoye
C., Seck - Andriatsima, Belvito, Essombé.
Troyes : Dreyer, Petric - Carole, Colin,
Jarjat, Ma.N'Diaye, Saunier - Court, Darbion, Lacour, Nivet, Othon,
Thiago - Cabot, Gimbert, Marcos.
Istres-Nimes
Two struggling teams often means goals and I expect to see them this evening ....
We have discussed Istres a lot this season, most recently in depth before their 2-1 home defeat to Metz at the beginning of the month ....
Just
two wins this season for Istres and they face a tall order to add to
that tally today against the league leaders. We have discussed the home
team's problems several times ....."Istres operate on a shoestring budget and have done wonders to stay in
Ligue 2 for four seasons, they started 2012-13 well and were 3rd after
14 matches with 24 points (7-3-4) , just as well, as they only collected
another 19 from 24 starts and managed to narrowly escape relegation.
Their budget which was already skinny was clipped by about 11% heading
into last season and with meagre crowds and limited backing, it is hard
to see how things will be much better this time round. They have lost a
number of key players including favourite son Nassim Akrour, but he was
pushing 40 yo, which is too old to be leading the front line, also gone
are midfielder Kévin Bru (31-2-5.... Istres did not win in the seven
games he missed last season and failed to score in five), hugely
experienced centre back Éric Chelle (25-1-0) and striker Yahia Cherif
(32-5-0). On loan winger Ludovic
Genest (29-3-2) who had three goals and an assist in those sole four
wins in the last 24 games, has also left. As you might expect, new
signings have been firmly low key and within those tight budgetary
restraints, but they did show a little original thinking with the
addition of two 20 year olds from the Fluminense B team."
Against
some of the Ligue 2 better funded clubs, Istres are going into battle
with a knife against a rifle, they might win the odd skirmish, but it
will be very difficult to win the war and for them, finishing 17th would
be a huge achievement.
They went into the break with a four goal loss on the road to Caen, which was also a winner for us and they now sit three points from safety, with three of their next four starts on the road, including very difficult trips to Lens and Dijon.
Nimes are not in much better shape, they lost at home to basement club CA Bastia just before the break and now only a point keeps them out of the drop zone. They arrive without midfielder Vincent Gragnic (9-2-2), left back Jean-Alain Fanchone (11-0-1) and fringe left sided midfielder Mathieu Robail, so short of options on that flank.
Istres are missing defensive midfielder Florian Tardieu (11-3-0),strikers Cheikh Diarra (6-2-0) and Bagaliy Dabo (9-2-1), midfielder Ibrahima Ba and first choice keeper Arnaud Balijon.
There is a history of goals between these two clubs with 5 of the last 6 h2h meetings going "over" and with both missing key defensive players I think this will follow suit. Istres made a good looking loan signing of striker Geoffrey Malfleury from Le Havre recently, he scored once in two starts and after the two week break, should be even more in sync with his team mates and that could be key, with a couple of otehr strikers unavailable. Both to score and I expect each to look for a winner, especially Istres who will have to gamble. 1.5 units "Over" 2.25 goals 2.04 asian line/Ibramarket.
Istres : Lejeune, Gil - Chafik, Barrillon, Kehiha, Le Goff, Boulaya, Leroy, Doumbia, Malfleury, Allart, Rafael, Sainati, Bosqui, Matheus, Belmonte, Keita.
Nîmes : Merville, Michel - Cordoval, Poulain, Boche, Parpeix, Kovacevic, Bouby, Ogoungbiyi, Nouri, Omrani, Cissokho, Benmeziane, Sartre, Ripart, Hsissane.
Good Luck.
Sunday, October 06, 2013
clubgowi MLS newsletter notes 05/10 ....
Next newsletter is at 10.00 UK time Sunday.
Eastern Conference....
| Eastern | Overall | Home | Away | |||||||||||||||||||||
| P | W | D | L | F | A | Gdf | Pts | Form | P | W | D | L | F | A | P | W | D | L | F | A | ||||
 | 1 |  | New York | 31 | 15 | 7 | 9 | 48 | 37 | +11 | 52 | XWWW | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 27 | 12 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 25 |
| 2 | | Sporting Kansas City | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 43 | 29 | +14 | 48 | LWWW | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 15 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 14 |
| 3 |  1 | Houston Dynamo | 31 | 13 | 8 | 10 | 39 | 37 | +2 | 47 | WXWW | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 14 | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 23 |
| 4 |  1 | Montreal Impact | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 48 | 45 | +3 | 46 | LXLL | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 29 | 18 | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 27 |
| 5 | 3 | Chicago Fire | 31 | 12 | 7 | 12 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 43 | WXLW | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 28 | 21 | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 24 |
 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | 1 | Philadelphia Union | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 38 | 39 | -1 | 42 | WLLO | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 21 | 16 | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 23 | |
| 7 | 1 | New England Revolution | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 42 | 34 | +8 | 41 | XWLL | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 26 | 14 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 20 | |
| 8 | 1 | Columbus Crew | 31 | 12 | 5 | 14 | 40 | 41 | -1 | 41 | WWWL | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 11 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 21 | 30 | |
| 9 | | Toronto FC | 31 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 29 | 45 | -16 | 26 | WLLX | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 22 | 22 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 23 | |
| 10 | | D.C. United | 31 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 20 | 55 | -35 | 15 | LLLX | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 14 | 26 | 16 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 6 | 29 | |
Western Conference....
| Western | Overall | Home | Away | |||||||||||||||||||||
| P | W | D | L | F | A | Gdf | Pts | Form | P | W | D | L | F | A | P | W | D | L | F | A | ||||
| 1 | | Real Salt Lake | 31 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 54 | 39 | +15 | 51 | WLLW | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 14 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 25 |
| 2 | | Seattle Sounders | 29 | 15 | 6 | 8 | 39 | 29 | +10 | 51 | XXWW | 15 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 27 | 10 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 19 |
| 3 | | Portland Timbers | 30 | 12 | 13 | 5 | 46 | 31 | +15 | 49 | WWXW | 15 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 28 | 11 | 15 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 18 | 20 |
| 4 | | Los Angeles Galaxy | 30 | 13 | 6 | 11 | 46 | 37 | +9 | 45 | LXXL | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 26 | 8 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 20 | 29 |
| 5 | | Colorado Rapids | 30 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 37 | 31 | +6 | 45 | LWWL | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 13 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 18 |
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | | San Jose Earthquakes | 31 | 12 | 8 | 11 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 44 | WWOW | 15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 20 | 12 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 29 | |
| 7 | | Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 42 | 39 | +3 | 41 | LWOL | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 17 | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 22 | |
| 8 | | FC Dallas | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 42 | 46 | -4 | 40 | LLLW | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 25 | 19 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 27 | |
| 9 | | Chivas USA | 31 | 6 | 8 | 17 | 29 | 55 | -26 | 26 | LLXW | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 24 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 31 | |
Things are getting incredibly exciting in the hunt for a top 5 finish.
Three matches have my attention this evening....
New York Red Bulls- New England Revolution
Philadelphia Union- Toronto FC
Colorado Rapids- Seattle Sounders
So,
in that order. I have to feel that this is a bigger match for the
Revolution, who, with three of their remaining fixtures on the road,
have made things difficult for themselves and cannot afford to come away
from the Big Apple, empty handed. Red Bulls are not secure yet, but a
single point will cement their place in the post season and I suspect
that getting that will be their
priority, then, in remaining fixtures they can go for things a little
more and look to claim the number one playoff spot.
Team
news is not overly important for me at this stage of the season, at
least in terms of one or two players, motivation, heart and desire can
overcome the loss of a couple of starters. But Red Bulls are likely to
have Thierry Henry and Jamison Olave back and likewise Juan Agudelo for
the visitors. Revolution have been playing better than results might
suggest and are creating plenty of goalscoring chances. They have scored
in 14 of their last 16 starts, two or more in 9 of those, including in
four road games and whilst they do not
have the best record in New York, they do pose a much greater offensive
threat now, than in recent visits .
I spoke about the visitors back in August ...
They are coming into the game with back-to-back wins for the first time since winning three in a row at the end of May, I was particularly impressed with the road wins at Columbus Crew and DC United as they rotated heavily for those two matches and coach Jay Heaps now has a lot of options at his disposal . Up front, what looked an offensive line short of experience through early season, is now one full of potential, 18 yo Diego Fagundez (18-7-4.... improving on a daily basis) and 23 yo Dimitry Imbongo (9-3-0.....three goals in his last five appearances) both scored in DC. Fagundez has scored in the last two and they are his first goals since scoring in four consecutive games, he is obviously "streaky" like most strikers and you know I love an inform frontman ! One of those goals came when the teams met here at Gillette Stadium on May 25th, Revolution won 2-0 with 20 yo US International Juan Agudelo (11-4-1) scoring the other. Both goals came from crosses in that game and that could be key again today, the first via a Chris Tierney ball which set up Fagundez, in recent starts left sided back/winger Tierney (17-3-3) has been forced to hold back a little more , but he set up the equaliser last week and the introduction of left back Kevin Alston from the bench ,who has been injured since March, allowed Tierney to get far further forward.
Coach Heaps spoke about this after the game:"He's exactly what we needed-a shot of energy. He's been great all week in training and up to this point in two weeks of training," Heaps said. "He's been itching to get on the field and you could see when he came on he was like a shot out of a cannon."We needed a player and we needed an outside back, we needed cover and you saw how it changed tonight when we were able to get Chris up by bringing on Alston. "It's an awesome story,I know he's going to make an impact on our team, it's almost like a signing and a lot of the players feel like we added a really excellent outside back."In the second half we really wanted to get Tierney in some better spots. We switched Saer Sene to the other side to give ourselves a bit more width because he naturally wants to come in so we pushed him wider. "We found the little gaps. I thought Dimitry had a nice finish and Saer really should have had two goals." So much potential in the hosts, who are only going to get stronger.
Philly
host TFC today and go to DC United next week, after which it is
Montreal away and SKC at home, so far harder and I would suggest they
probably need six points from these next two and certainly at home
today, to make the post season. TFC had a confidence
boosting big win over fellow strugglers United last week, but their
opponent had that US Open Cup final to concentrate on and I would not
read too much into that. Nothing for the visitors to play for and I
guess thoughts are very much on next season and with only two games left
for them after today and a two week gap until the next, they might, at
least mentally, already be lying on a beach somewhere. Union looked to
have blown things after a five match winless run, but really stepped up
with a 1-0 win at Sporting KC last time out and they will have been
basking in the warm glow that brought for eight days and will be well
rested and fired up to record back to back wins. Massive game for them. 1.5 units Philadelphia Union -1 ball 2.17-2.21 asian line... again IBC are biggest as I type.
I spoke about the visitors back in August ...
They are coming into the game with back-to-back wins for the first time since winning three in a row at the end of May, I was particularly impressed with the road wins at Columbus Crew and DC United as they rotated heavily for those two matches and coach Jay Heaps now has a lot of options at his disposal . Up front, what looked an offensive line short of experience through early season, is now one full of potential, 18 yo Diego Fagundez (18-7-4.... improving on a daily basis) and 23 yo Dimitry Imbongo (9-3-0.....three goals in his last five appearances) both scored in DC. Fagundez has scored in the last two and they are his first goals since scoring in four consecutive games, he is obviously "streaky" like most strikers and you know I love an inform frontman ! One of those goals came when the teams met here at Gillette Stadium on May 25th, Revolution won 2-0 with 20 yo US International Juan Agudelo (11-4-1) scoring the other. Both goals came from crosses in that game and that could be key again today, the first via a Chris Tierney ball which set up Fagundez, in recent starts left sided back/winger Tierney (17-3-3) has been forced to hold back a little more , but he set up the equaliser last week and the introduction of left back Kevin Alston from the bench ,who has been injured since March, allowed Tierney to get far further forward.
Coach Heaps spoke about this after the game:"He's exactly what we needed-a shot of energy. He's been great all week in training and up to this point in two weeks of training," Heaps said. "He's been itching to get on the field and you could see when he came on he was like a shot out of a cannon."We needed a player and we needed an outside back, we needed cover and you saw how it changed tonight when we were able to get Chris up by bringing on Alston. "It's an awesome story,I know he's going to make an impact on our team, it's almost like a signing and a lot of the players feel like we added a really excellent outside back."In the second half we really wanted to get Tierney in some better spots. We switched Saer Sene to the other side to give ourselves a bit more width because he naturally wants to come in so we pushed him wider. "We found the little gaps. I thought Dimitry had a nice finish and Saer really should have had two goals." So much potential in the hosts, who are only going to get stronger.
Regardless of what happens today
and the rest of this season, Revolution will be pleased with their
campaign, they were bottom two in each of the last two seasons, each
time 18 points adrift of the playoffs and this is a franchise back
heading in the right direction. If they build and do not sell, they will
have a big 2014. 1.25 units New England Revolution +0.5 ball 2.14 -2.17 asian line.... IBC are biggest as I type.
You
know that I am a Seattle "fan" and have tipped them up as likely
Supporters Shield winners for many weeks and I have been on the money
there, but I feel they might lose this evening. They have two games in
hand of many teams and they might just be more focused on two big West
Coast match ups over the next seven days against Vancouver and Portland.
Rapids have matches against Vancouver (twice) and a trip to San Jose (
if they know the way there !) left after this, two teams they are
battling toe to toe with for a top 5 finish. They are solid at home (
8-4-3) and in many ways, this might be the "easier" of their four
remaining fixtures. They are unbeaten in seven at home and have not
played in 15 days, since a 1-0 loss in Portland, they are
straining at the leash to get out there and will strip fresher that
Sounders, who have played twice in the meantime. Hosts might start with
Martin Rivero, Gabriel Torres and Vicente Sánchez for the first time ,
but whomever plays, will be up for this. Clint Dempsey did not travel
with the Sounders squad. 1.25 units Colorado Rapids -0.5 ball asian line 2.29 Pinnacle Sports.
Good Luck.
Saturday, October 05, 2013
Today's J-League notes....
J-League :
| 2013 | Overall | Home | Away | |||||||||||||||||||||
| P | W | D | L | F | A | Gdf | Pts | Form | P | W | D | L | F | A | P | W | D | L | F | A | ||||
| 1 | | Yokohama F-Marinos | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 45 | 26 | +19 | 52 | OWXL | 14 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 24 | 13 | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 13 | |
| 2 | | Sanfreece Hiroshima | 27 | 15 | 5 | 7 | 43 | 25 | +18 | 50 | WWLL | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 13 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 12 | |
| 3 | | Urawa Reds | 27 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 51 | 39 | +12 | 48 | XXLW | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 28 | 16 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 23 | |
| 4 | | Kashima Antlers | 27 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 46 | 42 | +4 | 47 | WWLW | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 10 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 32 | |
| 5 | 1 | FC Tokyo | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 51 | 35 | +16 | 44 | WWWW | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 13 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 22 | |
| 6 | 1 | Cerezo Osaka | 27 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 40 | 24 | +16 | 44 | WXXO | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 21 | 11 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 19 | 13 | |
| 7 | | Kawasaki Frontale | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 44 | +8 | 42 | WLWO | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 27 | 16 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 28 | |
| 8 | | Vegalta Sendai | 27 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 34 | 27 | +7 | 40 | OWWL | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 20 | 12 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 15 | |
| 9 | | Omiya Ardija | 27 | 12 | 3 | 12 | 39 | 38 | +1 | 39 | LLLW | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 24 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 18 | 14 | |
| 10 | | Kashiwa Reysol | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 43 | 48 | -5 | 38 | XXLL | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 27 | 29 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 19 | |
| 11 | 2 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 36 | 45 | -9 | 38 | WLWW | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 23 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 22 | |
| 12 | | Albirex Niigata | 27 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 37 | XLWL | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 20 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 16 | |
| 13 | 2 | Nagoya Grampus 8 | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 38 | 39 | -1 | 36 | LLLX | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 23 | |
| 14 | | Sagan Tosu | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 40 | 52 | -12 | 33 | LWWX | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 23 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 29 | |
| 15 | | Ventforet Kofu | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 27 | 37 | -10 | 29 | LXWX | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 20 | |
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||
 | 16 | | Shonan Bellmare | 27 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 28 | 50 | -22 | 24 | XWLW | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 24 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 11 | 26 |
| 17 | | Jubilo Iwata | 27 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 35 | 46 | -11 | 19 | LLWX | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 23 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 23 |
| 18 | | Oita Trinita | 27 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 28 | 57 | -29 | 10 | LLLL | 13 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 24 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 15 | 33 |
Last week I wrote ...
Only 8 rounds to play and an awful lot of teams (most) are in danger of having little very little to play for soon, that doesn't have to make things totally uninteresting, at least for now, as we will surely see many of these teams, who have nothing to lose, gambling big time for the points which might yet see them make an unlikely run at a top 3 (Champions League ) or title push. Someone in 6th, or even down as low as 12th/13th is in no danger of relegation currently and if they could put together a 4-5 match winning run, which they are "freerolling " for, could yet get into contention. That is what I will be looking out for and as we discussed at the end of last month .... "a huge amount of the J-League action is taking place after the break in any case, with 64% of all goals being scored in the second half and a lot of matches being turned on their heads, with 31% of teams who are ahead at half time, not winning the match and being as likely to lose, as to draw."
Those
Stats have largely held up over the last four weeks. Goals continue on
the increase and the 2.91 per game average are 0.15 per game up on last
season and that is all the more impressive, as we lost Consadole Sapporo
who conceded a whopping 88 goals and Gamba Osaka, who's matches
produced an eye popping 132 goals (3.82 average).
Draws are running at 23.93% (4.18 odds).
Now to find a way to use all this !
Round 28 Saturday fixtures.....
Jubilo Iwata ( 10 points from safety) - Vegalta Sendai ( 8 points off top 3)
Jubilo have won 0/7 at home when level, Vegalta are 1-3-2 on the road when all square.
Jubilo Iwata have conceded first in 11/13 home matches against top-half teams.
Sendai have only lost 3/13 away second half's and now that the draw is of little use and that Jubilo have been made favourite for this, I would favour the visitor, but small, I unit.
Sanfreece Hiroshima (2 points off top place/ 3 clear of 4th) - Shimizu S-Pulse ( 14 points clear of relegation)
Hosts are 4-9-1 at home in the second period, but are often defending a lead, when level they are 2-3-0. SSP are a useful 5-0-6 away and 3-1-3 when level.
But SSP are safe and will open up and Sanfreece's need is great,especially with a trip to Marinos next week, they also have a good scoring record here against mid table teams, I would make them a very solid 1.5 unit pick if all square at the break. When we should only have to give up 0.5 ball at most.
Urawa Reds ( 4 points off top) - Omiya Ardija ( 9 points off CL)
Urawa only seem to come alive after the break (8-3-2 at home) and are 3-2-1 when level. Omiya are 7-2-4 on the road, but most of those results came before they lost their way, 3-0-2 when level. Reds have scored a J-League high 21 goals at home in the second 45 mins. Omiya have a terrible road record against top six teams in the last year losing 61%, especially considering that over that period they have won eight away starts. 1.25 units Urawa Reds, line might be 0.25, or odds against -0.5 ball.
Shonan Bellmare ( 5 points from safety)-Nagoya Grampus ( 12 clear of relegation)
Shonan are 3-6-5 this season at home after the break , 2-3-3 when level, Grampus have lost 7 , including 5 when level and with not too much to play for, I would strongly favour the home, who have now got that gap down to under two "wins" and can put huge pressure on Kofu, who face the leaders anyway, later in the day. Big, big game for them, we can probably bet them at odds against off level ball at the half and that is not so bad, as although we are looking for teams motivated to win, the point could still see them one nearer to safety and they will battle to the death to get it, if they do fall behind. 1.25 units
Oita Trinita ( 19 points from safety)-Cerezo Ozaka (4 points off CL)
Oita are 1-6-6 in the second half at home and have won 0 from 9 when level.Cerezo are 4-5-4 amd 3-5-3 when level, which they nearly always are (11/13). They did us a big favour with their second half performance last week and could move very close to the top 3 with a win here, next three matches are against teams with an average league placing of 16th, a great opportunity. Oita are all but down. Line should be around -0.5 ball and I will be all over it like a rash 1.5 units. ** see foot of the email **where there is an alternative bet.
Albirex Niigata ( 13 clear of relegation/ 11 from top 3)-Sagan Tosu ( 9 points clear of relegation)
Draw has no value at all for Niigata and to be honest, neither has the win really, but they are 8-2-3 at home after the break and 4-0-1 when level and only Urawa have scored more. Sagan games have produced a second highest in J-League 35 goals in the second half, when they have lost 7/13, but won 2/5 when level. This screams goals after the break and if level 0-0 or 1-1, as (2-2 and up) quotes are too low, I want to back "over" 1.5 for second half ( over 1.5 if 0-0 , over 3.5 if 1-1), 1.25 units.
FC Tokyo ( 4 points off CL)-Kashima Antlers (1 point off CL spot)
FCT are closing in on the top 4 and are 8-0-4 here at home, 3-0-2 when level, Antlers are protecting their 4th spot but have won just a single (1/14) away start in the second period, but have drawn seven and a point for them, with four of their reamining six fixtures coming at home, might not be too bad and I will pass on this fixture.
Ventforet Kofu ( 5 clear of relegation)- Yokohama F.Marinos (lead by 2 points)
This is another game I am happy to leave, as a point could be valuable to both. Marinos have two home games after this, including a visit from Hiroshima.
The bottom two games kick off late and those teams will know the results of the other matches by the time they take to the field and these are the two fixtures where maybe 3/4 could settle for a point. So I will leave those alone.
Team news doesn't interest me for these, as firstly that is overriden by motivation and we are looking for half time draws, so by that criteria, each team will have held their own for at least 45 minutes and "in contention".
I also added ...
Last four rounds have seen 16 matches all square at the break, which is 44.44% , close enough to the seasonal average of 47%, it makes sense that the percentage is down slightly as some teams have less reason to be cagey and that is what we are basically talking about. Over the 26 rounds, 32.7% of games that were level at the half, have ended in stalemate, that number has dropped slightly over recent weeks and should continue to do so, with teams having so little use for one point. But even without that factor we could still expect at least 67% of all half time draws to end with a positive result for one team.
Two to four of these six matches should be level at the break, if it is none, this is still a worthwhile exercise IMO and will help us in the weeks to come.
Four were level at the half in the last round and one ended up as a draw, but that was one the few teams (Marinos) we had highlighted as able to settle for a point, so stats were pretty much as expected in terms of half time and "perfect" in terms of final outcome.
So remember, all note above in bold black type, are written as if the match was level at half time and assuming that we are 11 v 11, odds change (sometimes too much) with a sending off and the match dynamics are altered, even if it is 10 v 10.
These are all stats and motivation based and you will have your own opinion, especially if watching the match yourself. It is hard to be precise regarding lines at the break, but I should be close enough and if in doubt, do what I do and always opt for the tougher quote and bigger odds.
**The Oita-Cerezo match is .... only for subscribers.
Good Luck.
Only 8 rounds to play and an awful lot of teams (most) are in danger of having little very little to play for soon, that doesn't have to make things totally uninteresting, at least for now, as we will surely see many of these teams, who have nothing to lose, gambling big time for the points which might yet see them make an unlikely run at a top 3 (Champions League ) or title push. Someone in 6th, or even down as low as 12th/13th is in no danger of relegation currently and if they could put together a 4-5 match winning run, which they are "freerolling " for, could yet get into contention. That is what I will be looking out for and as we discussed at the end of last month .... "a huge amount of the J-League action is taking place after the break in any case, with 64% of all goals being scored in the second half and a lot of matches being turned on their heads, with 31% of teams who are ahead at half time, not winning the match and being as likely to lose, as to draw."
Draws are running at 23.93% (4.18 odds).
Now to find a way to use all this !
Round 28 Saturday fixtures.....
Jubilo Iwata ( 10 points from safety) - Vegalta Sendai ( 8 points off top 3)
Jubilo have won 0/7 at home when level, Vegalta are 1-3-2 on the road when all square.
Jubilo Iwata have conceded first in 11/13 home matches against top-half teams.
Sendai have only lost 3/13 away second half's and now that the draw is of little use and that Jubilo have been made favourite for this, I would favour the visitor, but small, I unit.
Sanfreece Hiroshima (2 points off top place/ 3 clear of 4th) - Shimizu S-Pulse ( 14 points clear of relegation)
Hosts are 4-9-1 at home in the second period, but are often defending a lead, when level they are 2-3-0. SSP are a useful 5-0-6 away and 3-1-3 when level.
But SSP are safe and will open up and Sanfreece's need is great,especially with a trip to Marinos next week, they also have a good scoring record here against mid table teams, I would make them a very solid 1.5 unit pick if all square at the break. When we should only have to give up 0.5 ball at most.
Urawa Reds ( 4 points off top) - Omiya Ardija ( 9 points off CL)
Urawa only seem to come alive after the break (8-3-2 at home) and are 3-2-1 when level. Omiya are 7-2-4 on the road, but most of those results came before they lost their way, 3-0-2 when level. Reds have scored a J-League high 21 goals at home in the second 45 mins. Omiya have a terrible road record against top six teams in the last year losing 61%, especially considering that over that period they have won eight away starts. 1.25 units Urawa Reds, line might be 0.25, or odds against -0.5 ball.
Shonan Bellmare ( 5 points from safety)-Nagoya Grampus ( 12 clear of relegation)
Shonan are 3-6-5 this season at home after the break , 2-3-3 when level, Grampus have lost 7 , including 5 when level and with not too much to play for, I would strongly favour the home, who have now got that gap down to under two "wins" and can put huge pressure on Kofu, who face the leaders anyway, later in the day. Big, big game for them, we can probably bet them at odds against off level ball at the half and that is not so bad, as although we are looking for teams motivated to win, the point could still see them one nearer to safety and they will battle to the death to get it, if they do fall behind. 1.25 units
Oita Trinita ( 19 points from safety)-Cerezo Ozaka (4 points off CL)
Oita are 1-6-6 in the second half at home and have won 0 from 9 when level.Cerezo are 4-5-4 amd 3-5-3 when level, which they nearly always are (11/13). They did us a big favour with their second half performance last week and could move very close to the top 3 with a win here, next three matches are against teams with an average league placing of 16th, a great opportunity. Oita are all but down. Line should be around -0.5 ball and I will be all over it like a rash 1.5 units. ** see foot of the email **where there is an alternative bet.
Albirex Niigata ( 13 clear of relegation/ 11 from top 3)-Sagan Tosu ( 9 points clear of relegation)
Draw has no value at all for Niigata and to be honest, neither has the win really, but they are 8-2-3 at home after the break and 4-0-1 when level and only Urawa have scored more. Sagan games have produced a second highest in J-League 35 goals in the second half, when they have lost 7/13, but won 2/5 when level. This screams goals after the break and if level 0-0 or 1-1, as (2-2 and up) quotes are too low, I want to back "over" 1.5 for second half ( over 1.5 if 0-0 , over 3.5 if 1-1), 1.25 units.
FC Tokyo ( 4 points off CL)-Kashima Antlers (1 point off CL spot)
FCT are closing in on the top 4 and are 8-0-4 here at home, 3-0-2 when level, Antlers are protecting their 4th spot but have won just a single (1/14) away start in the second period, but have drawn seven and a point for them, with four of their reamining six fixtures coming at home, might not be too bad and I will pass on this fixture.
Ventforet Kofu ( 5 clear of relegation)- Yokohama F.Marinos (lead by 2 points)
This is another game I am happy to leave, as a point could be valuable to both. Marinos have two home games after this, including a visit from Hiroshima.
The bottom two games kick off late and those teams will know the results of the other matches by the time they take to the field and these are the two fixtures where maybe 3/4 could settle for a point. So I will leave those alone.
Team news doesn't interest me for these, as firstly that is overriden by motivation and we are looking for half time draws, so by that criteria, each team will have held their own for at least 45 minutes and "in contention".
I also added ...
Last four rounds have seen 16 matches all square at the break, which is 44.44% , close enough to the seasonal average of 47%, it makes sense that the percentage is down slightly as some teams have less reason to be cagey and that is what we are basically talking about. Over the 26 rounds, 32.7% of games that were level at the half, have ended in stalemate, that number has dropped slightly over recent weeks and should continue to do so, with teams having so little use for one point. But even without that factor we could still expect at least 67% of all half time draws to end with a positive result for one team.
Two to four of these six matches should be level at the break, if it is none, this is still a worthwhile exercise IMO and will help us in the weeks to come.
Four were level at the half in the last round and one ended up as a draw, but that was one the few teams (Marinos) we had highlighted as able to settle for a point, so stats were pretty much as expected in terms of half time and "perfect" in terms of final outcome.
So remember, all note above in bold black type, are written as if the match was level at half time and assuming that we are 11 v 11, odds change (sometimes too much) with a sending off and the match dynamics are altered, even if it is 10 v 10.
These are all stats and motivation based and you will have your own opinion, especially if watching the match yourself. It is hard to be precise regarding lines at the break, but I should be close enough and if in doubt, do what I do and always opt for the tougher quote and bigger odds.
**The Oita-Cerezo match is .... only for subscribers.
Good Luck.
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