Saturday March 7th
There will be a follow up newsletter @ 13.00 UK time today.
QPR- Tottenham Hotspur
Supporters
might still say the North London derby, but in many ways, you can make a
case for this being Spurs biggest game of the seaon, at least until the
next one ! With their Capital One final out of the way, eliminated from
the Europa League and FA Cup, it is all about the Premier League now
and Spurs will want, no, need, to stay in contention for a top 4 spot as
long as possible. Lose this and they are effectively seven points off
fourth spot with six teams above them in the table, win this game in
hand and they are up to 6th and could go level with Manchester United in
4th with a victory at Old Trafford in eight days time. Three points
today will keep the dream and season alive a little longer.
Of
course, the game is no less important for Rangers who find themselves
three points from safety after Aston Villa's midweek win. However, they
have not beaten a single team in the top 12 of the EPL all season and
are 0-1-8 against the top 7, including a 4-0 defeat in the reverse
fixture, they rely hugely on the goals of Charlie Austin and if you cut
off the supply to him, or limit it, you are already half way home. He
has scored 15 of just 28 league goals, next best available goalscoring
player ( Leroy Fer has a long term injury) is their back up striker "own
goals" with three ! They have only managed 2 goals in eleven starts
which were not scored by either Austin or Fer and all six league wins
have come against teams who are, or were at the time of the game, in the
bottom five. Hugely competitive midfielder Joey Barton is suspended,
without him in the EPL over recent seasons Rangers are 1-1-13 , missing
his influence it is far easier to control the centre of the pitch and
the supply to the main striker. Spurs score a lot of late goals, only
Manchester City have scored more, or have a better goal difference in
the final 15 minutes of games and if they can get ahead and the hosts
start to gamble, the visitors can further punish them late. We have also
spoken many times about how well Spurs perform against the "weaker"
teams, especially on the road and they have won 14 of 15 starts against
promoted teams. 1.5 units Tottenham Hotspur -0.75 ball 2.07 asian line/Sportmarket .
League 2: Cheltenham Town- Mansfield Town
Very
briefly, we spoke about teams upping their game at this stage of the
season, once they realised they were in relegation trouble, a couple of
weeks back and few teams are more motivated than those facing relegation
out of the Football League. We touched upon Mansfield at that time and
they raised their level of performance and given themselves a little
breathing space over the drop zone. I do not think they will switch off
just yet, but their need is not as great as the hosts, who sit 91st in
the pyramid and face two road games after this, followed by two West
Country "derby" fixtures and are incredibly motivated for the points
this afternoon. The Robins have given themselves every opportunity and
been ultra busy in the loan window, bringing in a host of talented and
experienced players, adding Pablo Mills, Shaun Harrad and Matt Sparrow
recently, the trio played in the 2-0 home win over Tranmere Rovers last
week and whilst they lost at Carlisle United 1-0 in midweek, they
could/should have got something from that and all three are expected to
be better for the game time gained over the last seven days. Mills for
example was said to be very influential in the first game, despite being
some way off full fitness, this week Danny Haynes was also added, the
four are closing in on 1,500 league appearances between them, much at L1
and Championship level and experience can take you a long way at this
level. This is very big, albeit short term investment for a club like
the Robins and I expect it to be rewarded. 1.5 units Cheltenham Town -0.25 ball 2.21 asian line/Sportmarket.
Championship:
Nottingham Forest- Middlesbrough
We
discussed the Championship ,our long term positions and especially the
tough schedule that Middlesbrough face over the coming weeks in the Thursday newsletter
. By the way, if you are looking at that link, Bubba got himself right
into contention last night and is in a share of 4th place at the
halfway stage, fingers crossed for a big Saturday from him, either way,
we will discuss R4 there tomorrow. Back to Boro, that sequence of games
starts today and Forest/ Ipswich/ Derby/Bournemouth, with three on the
road, as their remaining March fixtures are just about as brutal as you
can get in Championship terms. You can argue that today is the easier
of the four, I am not certain about that, but do know that the Cherries
raised the bar last night with their big win at Fulham and that might be
the incentive that Boro need to refind their road form, they will
almost certainly need all three points to retain their lead at the top
of the table and do have their squad in good shape ahead of this game,
with Boro one week away from having an empty treatment room.......knock
on wood ! Aitor Karanka believes that leaves his team in prime position
for the run in and justification for his heavy rotation policy this
season, he has rotated game by game with this stage of the campaign in
mind and in the words of Maximus Decimus Meridius, it is time to "unleash hell". Boro
know how good they are, they have 11 games left to prove it to every
one else, there is no reason to hold back, the future has arrived and we
should see the best available starting eleven every time they step onto
the field with the possible exception of the Easter holiday games. This
is the best squad in the Championship , they should have another 6-7
points in the bag and we should already be standing at the payout window
in anticipation of their title win, unfortunately it is not going to be
that easy. However, I do expect them to come on strong from now on in,
the big midweek win gave them a platform to build on, albeit against
weak opposition. Leadbitter, Adomah, Tomlin, Vossen, Bamford, Wildshut
and Kike give them massive offensive options from starting eleven and
bench, all are fit and available and the goals really need to start
flowing. 1.5 units Middlesbrough -0.25 ball 2.12 asian line/Sportmarket.
Ipswich Town- Brentford
Ipswich
Town are one of only four teams to have won at Griffin Park this
season, doing all the damage early in a 4-2 win on Boxing Day. The Bees
were not at the races that day and were 3-0 down inside 30 minutes, I
have to accept my share of blame for that, as I was not in my usual seat
for that game, or for the other heavy home defeat (Norwich City), rest
assured that will not happen again ! Perhaps of more importance was the
fact that the hosts had been given extended time off over the holiday
period, perhaps too much and they fell out of the blocks in a morning
kick off.
There are quite a lot of similarities with this match and the return fixture with Norwich, where the Bees earned revenge with a 2-1 win, not only are both from the same part of the world and deadly rivals, but for some inexplicable reason, they had both decided to go down the long ball route just before the return game, after things were getting a little stale. These are not tactics which will work against the Bees, the ball will be coming back too often and at pace and I can see a similar outcome today. There are "issues" in that the visitors have been poor in their last two road starts, something I spoke about ahead of the midweek 4-1 defeat of Huddersfield, which you can read in full after the "good luck" sign off, Bees were good there and only the Terriers keeper prevented them scoring 6-7 goals.This is a huge game for both teams and could be key in our top six bet on Brentford, so there is no need to get overly involved, but I do see goals in this for the visitors, who have plenty of options today and could leave Gray, Jota and Toral on the bench, without weakening the starting line up, the first two have 19 goals between them and Toral four in his last three appearances, Alex Pritchard has had more attempts on goal than any other player in the Championship and this is a team with almost unlimited offensive threat and a lot of still untapped potential. There should also be freshness edge to the visitors who have played Sat-Tues (home)-Sat, whereas Town, have gone Sun (biggest game of the season)-Weds ( 7 -8 hour road trip) -Sat . I would not put any one off taking the visitors +0.25 ball, but the Bees do not do many draws , a league low four all season and none in 23 starts, so personally I have a problem with taking a quote which includes so much value with the stalemate, I would prefer the bigger odds for the straight away win, or even better, if you can find it .......1.5 units Brentford to score over 1.5 goals 2.90-3.0 general quote, anything above 2.75 offers value IMO.
There are quite a lot of similarities with this match and the return fixture with Norwich, where the Bees earned revenge with a 2-1 win, not only are both from the same part of the world and deadly rivals, but for some inexplicable reason, they had both decided to go down the long ball route just before the return game, after things were getting a little stale. These are not tactics which will work against the Bees, the ball will be coming back too often and at pace and I can see a similar outcome today. There are "issues" in that the visitors have been poor in their last two road starts, something I spoke about ahead of the midweek 4-1 defeat of Huddersfield, which you can read in full after the "good luck" sign off, Bees were good there and only the Terriers keeper prevented them scoring 6-7 goals.This is a huge game for both teams and could be key in our top six bet on Brentford, so there is no need to get overly involved, but I do see goals in this for the visitors, who have plenty of options today and could leave Gray, Jota and Toral on the bench, without weakening the starting line up, the first two have 19 goals between them and Toral four in his last three appearances, Alex Pritchard has had more attempts on goal than any other player in the Championship and this is a team with almost unlimited offensive threat and a lot of still untapped potential. There should also be freshness edge to the visitors who have played Sat-Tues (home)-Sat, whereas Town, have gone Sun (biggest game of the season)-Weds ( 7 -8 hour road trip) -Sat . I would not put any one off taking the visitors +0.25 ball, but the Bees do not do many draws , a league low four all season and none in 23 starts, so personally I have a problem with taking a quote which includes so much value with the stalemate, I would prefer the bigger odds for the straight away win, or even better, if you can find it .......1.5 units Brentford to score over 1.5 goals 2.90-3.0 general quote, anything above 2.75 offers value IMO.
Brentford- Huddersfield Town (written March 3rd)
The
Bees were bad at Birmingham on Saturday and also made some poor
decisions in terms of team selection, both pre and during the match.
They were not quite as bad as for the recent defeat at Charlton,
but I do expect a similar reaction this evening and for them to come
out firing as they did against Bournemouth and Blackpool in the two
subsequent home games, ahead of the first I wrote .....
When Brentford won at Leeds
United just 14 days ago everything
seemed to be fine and rosy at Griffin Park and the unlikely ( the Bees
in the EPL) more and more possible. However, the news broke that boss
Mark Warburton , assistant David Weir and Director of Football Frank
McParland were not going to be retained next season and the delay over
an official announcement, left the club in turmoil. If you want to read a
little more, the official statement from the club is at the very bottom
of this newsletter and is an interesting read.
There
is a lot more which has not been said and the problem is that to people
who do not understand, it looks like Matthew Benham is an interfering
owner, much like any other and there have been and are, many of those.
That is not the case, put simply, Brentford could easily be playing non
league football as I type and have an eight figue debt to boot, instead,
they will be playing in the EPL at some stage in the next 3-4 seasons,
in a brand new stadium , debt free, it should also be understood that
Benham probably knows more about the game than 95% of "football men".
Obviously, any real Brentford supporter who understands the situation
will give the owner their full support and Warburton and Weir, their
sympathy, it is terrible the way things played out, no one wanted that ,
it is not the Brentford way, but it is done and hopefully over the next
week or so, normality of a sort will return.
It
is going to be very difficult, but not impossible for the Bees to
maintain a promotion push, but I do not doubt that everyone connected
with the club will try. The news first broke just ahead of the Watford
game, where they battled well but played 55 minutes against one of the
better teams in the division with ten men and lost to a last minute
winner, it was an emotioanl roller coaster of an evening, I was wiped
out afterwards, goodness knows how the players and management felt and
they were mentally drained and in no fit state to do themselves justice
at Charlton Athletic last weekend and it was the worst performance of
the season from Brentford. Since then, they players have been given time
away from the club, the statement has been made and hopefully they have
regrouped. Signs at Jersey Road (the training ground (were that they
have) and the contract extension of senior player Jonathan Douglas, who
is a leader on and off the pitch, was announced yesterday and I feel the
timing was carefully chosen.
The
bad news today is that Jake Bidwell is serving the second of his three
match ban, which leaves a problem at left back and that is the flank
where Bournemouth have huge pace and talent. This "issue" was part of
the problem and the owner wanted to bring in players in three key areas,
including this position and that was obviously the right thing to do.
Brentford could go with Nico Yennaris like last week, but that doesn't
seem fair to the youngster who was crucified out of position there and
this could be worse, or Tony Craig, Alan McCormack, Stuart Dallas or
Moses Odubajo, any option would be kind of out of position, but I know
what I would go for, unfortunately (and it is a shame), I am not picking
the team. Odubajo has a good left foot, pace to spare and has played on
that flank quite a bit early in the season, when he was switching
flanks with Jota through games. That would allow McCormack to come in on
the other side of defence in his natural position. Dallas who saw out
the hour against Watford manfully covering for Bidwell could play on the
left of midfield and help defensively on that flank (Dallas would be my
second choice at LB) . Big plus is that James Tarkowski looks set to
return to central defence and Alan Judge who has been player of the
season, has returned to training and should be fit for at least for a
cameo role after missing seven games with injury, I do not know what
they feed him on, think they just wind him up like the duracell bunny
and let him loose, but his high energy performance is just what the Bees
need right now.
If
Bidwell was playing and I knew Judge could play for 45 minutes +, I
would be all over Brentford plus the handicap start like a rash, even
now , it just doesn't feel right, even with all that has gone on
over the last 12 days. Brentford could have two from Judge/Dallas/Toral/
Jota on the bench ,which is a lot of talent to leave out , especially
when the one area where the Cherries are short, is central midfield .
They are without Arter and O'Kane for sure, Gosling might make the
bench, just 7 wins in 23 starts over the last three seasons (one of
which was a promotion campaign) without Arter, who leads a lot of team
stats , including possession and he is a big loss, more so as he has
been ever present this season.
Bees
mentally might still have a hangover and a problem on the left, but a
boost elsewhere in terms of returning players and the Cherries short in
the middle. odds just do not feel right ( sorry to repeat that.....they
don't !)
Brentford's
odds have drifted quite a bit this morning, if you read the preview ,
it is fairly easy to appreciate why, they might lose 3-0 today, but many
of you will know that I am right far more times than not when odds
drift and I always stick to my guns and own opinion (just took some 2.16
and win or lose, am very grateful for it and might bet it again later
if odds go up again ), it is no good writing to me asking why the odds
are on the rise , as I rarely look until close to kick off and it
doesn't overly matter to me . In this case it is fairly obvious and I
just see the match differently, in
addition to which, I have no interest in what other bettors ( outsiders
I mean) play and I doubt anyone else has given as much thought to the
loss of Arter and how this match is subsequently likely to play out.
However, the ball is round and anything can happen, but bigger quotes
are always good in my book !
Just
to update the preview, the rumour is that Dallas has been told he is
playing at LB, that was my #2 choice, but suggests (he offers more
protection ) that Judge is starting which would be fantastic news IMO,
if that is true, the person cartwheeling to his seat just behind the
home dug out will be me !
Saturday March 7th #2
Next newsletter will be sent @ 11.00 UK time on Sunday.
Bundesliga: Hannover- Bayern Munich
Bayern
still have a little work to do against Shakhtar in midweek, but will
want to retain their eight point lead at the top of the Bundesliga and
not offer Wolfsburg any encouragement. They have won on their last two
visits here by a combined 10-1 , leading at the half 3-0 and 2-0 , they
would doubtless love a repeat, but Hannover will not want to suffer
another humiliation in front of their own supporters and I expect them
to put a lot of effort in early. They are +4 at home in terms of goal
difference before the break, -5 after and on the road Bayern are +5/+12
respectively. Anyway, if we go in
all square (level) at the break, or Hannover are ahead, I will take the
first asian quote above 2.0 for Bayern for 1.5 units , as always, we
have to be playing 11 v 11.